Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>CaiNiao's revenue growth remained strong, up +24% Y/Y in December quarter</li>
<li>EBITA turned positive from loss in prior year period, but margin &lt; FYQ2</li>
<li>Overall, an impressive set of results that distinguishes CaiNiao from express peers</li>
</ul>


CaiNiao's revenue growth remained strong, up +24% Y/Y in December quarter
EBITA turned positive from loss in prior year period, but margin &lt; FYQ2
Overall, an impressive set of results that distinguishes CaiNiao from express peers


CaiNiao's FYQ3: Solid Revenue Growth & EBITA Margin Improvement Distinguish It From Express Peers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 29th December 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> (KLN) announced it would in-specie its entire 52.1% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a>.</li>
<li>Given <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> holds a 51.5% stake in KLN, it will hold 26.8% in KET post-in-specie, triggering an unconditional MTO. The MTO price will be THB5.50/share. </li>
<li>Thai SFC approval has now been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0205/2024020501935.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">satisfied</a>.  The MTO should commence around the 13th Feb. with payment ~26th March. KLN, cum-entitlement to KEX, is the 19 Feb.</li>
</ul>


On the 29th December 2023, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) (KLN) announced it would in-specie its entire 52.1% stake in Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB).
Given S.F. Holding (002352 CH) holds a 51.5% stake in KLN, it will hold 26.8% in KET post-in-specie, triggering an unconditional MTO. The MTO price will be THB5.50/share. 
Thai SFC approval has now been satisfied.  The MTO should commence around the 13th Feb. with payment ~26th March. KLN, cum-entitlement to KEX, is the 19 Feb.


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>December: strong volume growth, but worsening price declines for STO, Yunda</li>
<li>Recent trends in X-border parcel volume growth &amp; pricing moderated in December</li>
<li>In 2024, look for SF to continue its outpeformance; STO, Yunda should still lag</li>
</ul>


December: strong volume growth, but worsening price declines for STO, Yunda
Recent trends in X-border parcel volume growth &amp; pricing moderated in December
In 2024, look for SF to continue its outpeformance; STO, Yunda should still lag


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024)

<ul>
<li>Plummeting ASPs likely pushed STO and Yunda OpInc margins below 0% in Q423</li>
<li>The companies' operating cash flow may be insufficient to fund needed capex</li>
<li>Reduced investment could lead to slower growth, consolidation pressure in '24</li>
</ul>


Plummeting ASPs likely pushed STO and Yunda OpInc margins below 0% in Q423
The companies' operating cash flow may be insufficient to fund needed capex
Reduced investment could lead to slower growth, consolidation pressure in '24


STO & Yunda May Report Operating Losses in Q423, Hampering Their Ability to Invest & Grow in '24

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, starting with Hong Kong.</li>
<li>This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, starting with Hong Kong.
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources.
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.


Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline - Hong Kong

Hong Kong

S. F. Holding Co., Ltd. offers express courier services. The Company provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, warehousing, and other services. S. F. Holding offers services worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (6936 HK)

CaiNiao's FYQ3: Solid Revenue Growth & EBITA Margin Improvement Distinguish It From Express Peers

CaiNiao results from FYQ3 were impressive, with revenue and EBITA margin both up sharply compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year.

Tracking Traffic

Kerry Express (KEX TB)'s MTO Update

KLN is inexpensive at a trailing 3.2x PER for its stub ops - ex-KET. The five-year average is 6.7x (incl KET). KLN is up 15% since the in-specie...

David Blennerhassett

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024)

Industry volume growth remains firm, but price pressure on domestic 'sort and transport' companies continued to increase in December. We expect SF...

Tracking Traffic

STO & Yunda May Report Operating Losses in Q423, Hampering Their Ability to Invest & Grow in '24

Plummeting prices and already-low profitability could force second-tier Chinese express names STO and Yunda to be part of industry consolidation in...

Tracking Traffic

Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline - Hong Kong

In this note, we will take a look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, starting with Hong Kong including the filed, lapsed and future filings.

Sumeet Singh

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