Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Full Truck Alliance reported strong growth in Q3, from the right sources</li>
<li>Improved sales mix &amp; progress on expense control lifted core margins</li>
<li>With 22% upside to US$9.5 based on 21x PER, our high conviction pick</li>
</ul>


Full Truck Alliance reported strong growth in Q3, from the right sources
Improved sales mix &amp; progress on expense control lifted core margins
With 22% upside to US$9.5 based on 21x PER, our high conviction pick


2024 High Conviction: Full Truck Alliance | Strong Top Line, Margins in Q3 | Worth US$9.5 on 21x PER

<ul>
<li>October's industry numbers hide pricing turmoil seen at company level</li>
<li>STO Express appears to be using price to gain share from Yunda, others</li>
<li>We believe price competition continues to hurt 'ground' express margins</li>
</ul>


October's industry numbers hide pricing turmoil seen at company level
STO Express appears to be using price to gain share from Yunda, others
We believe price competition continues to hurt 'ground' express margins


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Margins Battered By Price | More to Come in Q4 (November 2023)

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Led by international activity, CaiNiao booked +25% Y/Y revenue growth in FYQ2</li>
<li>FYQ2 EBITA margin improved Y/Y and Q/Q, even as express companies struggled</li>
<li>Result bolsters CaiNiao status as vehicle to access BABA's international growth</li>
</ul>


Led by international activity, CaiNiao booked +25% Y/Y revenue growth in FYQ2
FYQ2 EBITA margin improved Y/Y and Q/Q, even as express companies struggled
Result bolsters CaiNiao status as vehicle to access BABA's international growth


CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

<ul>
<li>Non-Core items boosted Q3 earnings, but core margins plunged vs Q2</li>
<li>In a surprise move, ZTO has abandoned its aggressive pursuit of share</li>
<li>Medium term growth is likely to slow, and pressure on margins remains</li>
</ul>


Non-Core items boosted Q3 earnings, but core margins plunged vs Q2
In a surprise move, ZTO has abandoned its aggressive pursuit of share
Medium term growth is likely to slow, and pressure on margins remains


ZTO Express Q3: Margins Plunge Vs Q2 | Abandons Pursuit of Share Gains | Is There a New Strategy?

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T debuted with a rich valuation, but little investor enthusiasm to date</li>
<li>Focusing on J&amp;T's valuation alone could be a boon to CaiNiao's valuation...</li>
<li>...but, with few other comps, J&amp;T's lackluster early performance could be a drag</li>
</ul>


J&amp;T debuted with a rich valuation, but little investor enthusiasm to date
Focusing on J&amp;T's valuation alone could be a boon to CaiNiao's valuation...
...but, with few other comps, J&amp;T's lackluster early performance could be a drag


CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 5 | For Better or Worse, J&T IPO Will Impact CaiNiao Valuation

Hong Kong

S. F. Holding Co., Ltd. offers express courier services. The Company provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, warehousing, and other services. S. F. Holding offers services worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (6936 HK)

2024 High Conviction: Full Truck Alliance | Strong Top Line, Margins in Q3 | Worth US$9.5 on 21x PER

In Q323 Full Truck Alliance reported strong revenue growth and impressive margin expansion compared to Q322. We believe the company's shares are...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Margins Battered By Price | More to Come in Q4 (November 2023)

Companies focused on China's domestic 'ground' express continued to experience price pressures in October. These pressures will continue in the...

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

CaiNiao's FYQ2 revenue growth was solid, and core margins improved. The company has emerged as a vehicle for gaining access to Alibaba's...

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 5 | For Better or Worse, J&T IPO Will Impact CaiNiao Valuation

For better or worse, we believe investors will view J&T Global Express' recent IPO as the primary reference point for CaiNiao's planned IPO in Hong...

Tracking Traffic

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2024 High Conviction: Full Truck Alliance | Strong Top Line, Margins in Q3 | Worth US$9.5 on 21x PER

In Q323 Full Truck Alliance reported strong revenue growth and impressive margin expansion compared to Q322. We believe the company's shares are...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q3 Margins Battered By Price | More to Come in Q4 (November 2023)

Companies focused on China's domestic 'ground' express continued to experience price pressures in October. These pressures will continue in the...

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao's FYQ2: Revenue +25% Y/Y, Led by Int'l | EBITA Margin Up, Too | Solid Showing Ahead of IPO

CaiNiao's FYQ2 revenue growth was solid, and core margins improved. The company has emerged as a vehicle for gaining access to Alibaba's...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q3: Margins Plunge Vs Q2 | Abandons Pursuit of Share Gains | Is There a New Strategy?

ZTO has long employed a strategy of market share gains it uses to offset declining unit prices. Under current depressed market conditions, it has...

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 5 | For Better or Worse, J&T IPO Will Impact CaiNiao Valuation

For better or worse, we believe investors will view J&T Global Express' recent IPO as the primary reference point for CaiNiao's planned IPO in Hong...

Tracking Traffic