Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Medium-Term, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> is not in great shape fundamentally compared to others We still know nothing about TOPIX. And we may just not hear. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> to take control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-m-entertainment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3500:1" rel="noopener">S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)</a> after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hybe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28959:1" rel="noopener">HYBE (352820 KS)</a> throws in the towel.</li>
<li>The world is quite volatile now, and funding is probably more precious today than yesterday. But a bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> is too. </li>
</ul>


Medium-Term, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) is not in great shape fundamentally compared to others We still know nothing about TOPIX. And we may just not hear. 

Kakao Corp (035720 KS) to take control of S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) after HYBE (352820 KS) throws in the towel.
The world is quite volatile now, and funding is probably more precious today than yesterday. But a bid for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) is too. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post Bank, S.M Entertainment, Toshiba, Link REIT

<ul>
<li>There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s delisting Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oishi-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17370:1" rel="noopener">Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gk-goh-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8482:1" rel="noopener">GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/halcyon-agri-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18191:1" rel="noopener">Halcyon Agri (HACL SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-m-entertainment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3500:1" rel="noopener">S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s delisting Offer for Oishi Group PCL (OISHI TB).
Key updates took place for AAG Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), GK Goh Holdings (GKG SP), Halcyon Agri (HACL SP), and S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Oishi, AAG, Pushpay, GK Goh, Halcyon Agri, S.M.Entertainment

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The target volume is 47.6% of the nominally estimated tendering pool size. It may go up due to retail investors' typically low participation in tendering.</li>
<li>Other factors MAY OFFSET this. Most notable is the tendering possibility of HYBE (18.45%) and Lee Soo-man (4.96%). Combining these, the allocation rate will likely be between 50% and 60%.</li>
<li>Using this 50-60% band as a reference point, we should assess the risk of mismatching between the degree of post-tendering price correction and our loss buffer range for non-tendered shares.</li>
</ul>


The target volume is 47.6% of the nominally estimated tendering pool size. It may go up due to retail investors' typically low participation in tendering.
Other factors MAY OFFSET this. Most notable is the tendering possibility of HYBE (18.45%) and Lee Soo-man (4.96%). Combining these, the allocation rate will likely be between 50% and 60%.
Using this 50-60% band as a reference point, we should assess the risk of mismatching between the degree of post-tendering price correction and our loss buffer range for non-tendered shares.


SM Ent Tendering P&L & Allocation Risk for a 30% Spread Opening

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide a proration analysis of the S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) tender offer by Kakao Corp (035720 KS).</li>
<li>Our base case assumes 71.4% of outstanding shares will participate in the tender offer, including HYBE, NPS, KB Asset Mgmt, Com2Us, and 70% of the remaining local and overseas investors.</li>
<li>There is a very high probability of a successful tender offer of SM Entertainment shares by Kakao. Post end of tender offer, its share price could fall about 5-10%, however. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide a proration analysis of the S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) tender offer by Kakao Corp (035720 KS).
Our base case assumes 71.4% of outstanding shares will participate in the tender offer, including HYBE, NPS, KB Asset Mgmt, Com2Us, and 70% of the remaining local and overseas investors.
There is a very high probability of a successful tender offer of SM Entertainment shares by Kakao. Post end of tender offer, its share price could fall about 5-10%, however. 


SM Entertainment: Kakao's Tender Offer Proration Analysis

<ul>
<li>On 12 March, HYBE (352820 KS) announced that it is no longer pursuing S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) in an M&amp;A battle with Kakao Corp (035720 KS).</li>
<li>This will result in a very high probability of Kakao winning the M&amp;A battle of SM Entertainment.</li>
<li>Many institutional investors are likely to have pushed back on HYBE's capital raising efforts, which seems to have been the clincher of HYBE backing out of this M&amp;A for SM. </li>
</ul>


On 12 March, HYBE (352820 KS) announced that it is no longer pursuing S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) in an M&amp;A battle with Kakao Corp (035720 KS).
This will result in a very high probability of Kakao winning the M&amp;A battle of SM Entertainment.
Many institutional investors are likely to have pushed back on HYBE's capital raising efforts, which seems to have been the clincher of HYBE backing out of this M&amp;A for SM. 


HYBE Gives Up the M&A Fight for SM Entertainment: Impact on Kakao's Tender Offer

South Korea

S.M.Entertainment Co. plans, produces, promotes, and markets Korean rock and roll music in several formats, such as compact discs (CD), concert tours, television productions, and music videos.  The Company also operates artist management business as well as licensing and copyright business from the company's music records.

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S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post Bank, S.M Entertainment, Toshiba, Link REIT

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Oishi, AAG, Pushpay, GK Goh, Halcyon Agri, S.M.Entertainment

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

SM Ent Tendering P&L & Allocation Risk for a 30% Spread Opening

This post examines tendering pool size, P&L, and allocation risks (and likely final rate) of SM Entertainment tendering event.

Sanghyun Park

SM Entertainment: Kakao's Tender Offer Proration Analysis

In this insight, we provide a proration analysis of the S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) tender offer by Kakao Corp (035720 KS).

Douglas Kim

HYBE Gives Up the M&A Fight for SM Entertainment: Impact on Kakao's Tender Offer

HYBE announced that it is no longer pursuing an M&A of SM Entertainment. This will result in a very high probability of Kakao winning the M&A...

Douglas Kim

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