Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible</li>
<li>Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)</li>
<li>10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)
10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.


Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>There is a clear distinction between the returns of nominal and real asset classes following a peak in US headline inflation.</li>
<li>The 1,2,3,6, and 12-month returns for both US Equities and Treasuries are positive and, more importantly, above the average returns measured over the entire sample period.</li>
<li>The returns on Commodities following a peak in US inflation are negative for all five holding periods, while Gold is somewhat of a mixed bag caused by elevated return volatility. </li>
</ul>


There is a clear distinction between the returns of nominal and real asset classes following a peak in US headline inflation.
The 1,2,3,6, and 12-month returns for both US Equities and Treasuries are positive and, more importantly, above the average returns measured over the entire sample period.
The returns on Commodities following a peak in US inflation are negative for all five holding periods, while Gold is somewhat of a mixed bag caused by elevated return volatility. 


When Inflation Peaks, Favor Nominal over Real Assets: The Multi-Asset Evidence

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets, Kaiko

Kaiko

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets

Kaiko is the leading cryptocurrency market data provider for institutional investors and enterprises. We empower market participants with accurate, transparent, and actionable financial data to be leveraged for a range of market activities. Kaiko’s mission is to be the foundation of the new digital finance economy by serving as a single source for market information. Our mission is premised on the idea that high-quality data drives market efficiency and greater transparency throughout the industry. For each of our enterprise clients, we build custom data plans designed for a range of use cases.

Crypto

<ul><li>Last week, the Shapella upgrade went live without a hitch, enabling millions of staked ETH to be withdrawn.</li><li>While Ethereum's Merge upgrade last September was more of a "buy the rumor sell the news" type of event, Shapella appears to have had the opposite impact on price.</li><li>ETH spot prices dropped by nearly 18% post-Merge while they are up 11% since Shapella, despite fears of mass selling. </li></ul>

Last week, the Shapella upgrade went live without a hitch, enabling millions of staked ETH to be withdrawn.While Ethereum's Merge upgrade last September was more of a "buy the rumor sell the news" type of event, Shapella appears to have had the opposite impact on price.ETH spot prices dropped by nearly 18% post-Merge while they are up 11% since Shapella, despite fears of mass selling. 

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Tactical synergies are aligning between topping equities, yield and DXY wedge formations and the USD reaching a range low (more so in Asia/ZAR).</li>
<li>We are approaching the end of the April buoyant cycle for risk with momentum due to start tapering off next week with late April a timeline for a turn.</li>
<li>Pay close attention to the bullish wedge in the dollar and the bull wedge in yield - some clear synergy and then we have gold topping. Late April/May clarity.</li>
</ul>


Tactical synergies are aligning between topping equities, yield and DXY wedge formations and the USD reaching a range low (more so in Asia/ZAR).
We are approaching the end of the April buoyant cycle for risk with momentum due to start tapering off next week with late April a timeline for a turn.
Pay close attention to the bullish wedge in the dollar and the bull wedge in yield - some clear synergy and then we have gold topping. Late April/May clarity.


Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US non-financial corporations' debt exposure has risen since the global financial crisis. Tighter bank lending standards will raise borrowing costs, while a higher federal funds rate raises debt servicing costs. </li>
<li>The 2023 Q1 US corporate earnings reporting season should confirm the arrival of a corporate profits recession, while another contraction is expected in Q2.</li>
<li>Labour hoarding and falling profits make the current environment similar to the onset of the 2001 recession: corporations were eventually forced to reduce headcount to stabilise earnings and stock prices.</li>
</ul>


US non-financial corporations' debt exposure has risen since the global financial crisis. Tighter bank lending standards will raise borrowing costs, while a higher federal funds rate raises debt servicing costs. 
The 2023 Q1 US corporate earnings reporting season should confirm the arrival of a corporate profits recession, while another contraction is expected in Q2.
Labour hoarding and falling profits make the current environment similar to the onset of the 2001 recession: corporations were eventually forced to reduce headcount to stabilise earnings and stock prices.


US Corporate Outlook: Credit and Labour Hoarding Profit Risks Lurk in the Background

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

The $SPX is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023. Considering limited upside, we continue to favor...

Vermilion Research

When Inflation Peaks, Favor Nominal over Real Assets: The Multi-Asset Evidence

Empirical data since 1970 reveals that US Equities and Treasuries perform well after a peak in inflation, while Commodities and Gold lag.

Jeroen Blokland

ETH's Big Post-Shapella Rally

While Ethereum's Merge upgrade last September was more of a "buy the rumor sell the news" type of event, Shapella appears to have had the opposite...

Kaiko

Spx, Yield, USD and Gold Alignment

Tactical synergies are aligning between topping equities, yield and DXY wedge formations and the USD reaching a range low (more so in Asia/ZAR). We...

Thomas Schroeder

US Corporate Outlook: Credit and Labour Hoarding Profit Risks Lurk in the Background

US equities remain focussed on interest risks. Rising leverage and lower quality borrowers make corporations more vulnerable to credit risks,...

DeSaque Macro Research