Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Looming weakness in the housing sector is not sufficient for a Fed policy pivot. The current state of labour market conditions precludes the existence of significant supply slack.</li>
<li>The recovery in the participation rate of prime-aged workers means that an important safety valve for wage inflation is absent. Upward pressure on wages could persist, while productivity may suffer. </li>
<li>Operating margin forecasts remain optimistic due to the envisaged ability of companies to pass-through higher input costs via price increases, an outcome which will slow the return of price stability. </li>
</ul>


Looming weakness in the housing sector is not sufficient for a Fed policy pivot. The current state of labour market conditions precludes the existence of significant supply slack.
The recovery in the participation rate of prime-aged workers means that an important safety valve for wage inflation is absent. Upward pressure on wages could persist, while productivity may suffer. 
Operating margin forecasts remain optimistic due to the envisaged ability of companies to pass-through higher input costs via price increases, an outcome which will slow the return of price stability. 


Lack of Labour Market Slack and Preserving High Operating Margins Precludes Fed Policy Pivot

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Call was to buy our long group for a mid-October short covering rally. Lofty CPI means we retest lows (late October). Top today for dip, better sell territory next week.</li>
<li>NKY was our top long bet in our long basket (NKY, ASX, Euro Stoxx 50 and SPX) with a call to reduce with ideal sell levels due next week.</li>
<li>At SPX 3,700+ we are rolling back into our short group. Ideal low due in late October.</li>
</ul>


Call was to buy our long group for a mid-October short covering rally. Lofty CPI means we retest lows (late October). Top today for dip, better sell territory next week.
NKY was our top long bet in our long basket (NKY, ASX, Euro Stoxx 50 and SPX) with a call to reduce with ideal sell levels due next week.
At SPX 3,700+ we are rolling back into our short group. Ideal low due in late October.


SPX Met 3,700 Sell Zone to Reduce Long Basket/Roll into Shorts

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>In our Sept.27 Compass, with the S&amp;P 500 down 11.5% during the prior two weeks, we discussed our belief that the market indexes could see a bounce/pause pause in selling.</li>
<li>The SPX and IWM have paused, and we cannot rule out a bear market rally if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on the SPX, and if $162-163 holds on IWM.</li>
<li>Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 can break above their respective 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


In our Sept.27 Compass, with the S&amp;P 500 down 11.5% during the prior two weeks, we discussed our belief that the market indexes could see a bounce/pause pause in selling.
The SPX and IWM have paused, and we cannot rule out a bear market rally if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on the SPX, and if $162-163 holds on IWM.
Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 can break above their respective 200-day MAs.


Bear Market Until Proven Otherwise; Upgrading Industrials to Overweight; Buys Within Industrials

<ul>
<li>We recommended rolling back into our short group at SPX 3,800+ on October 5th. Friday's NFP bear impulse does show energy to pressure the SPX 3,630/50 bull/bear line.</li>
<li>SPX chart shows downside follow through after downside impulses as does the oversold RSI reading (lacking any bull divergence). US yields and USD point north to provide bear fuel.</li>
<li>Below SPX 3,630 (after an uptick) does favor minor new lows in the US that is part of the bottom building process outlined for October.</li>
</ul>


We recommended rolling back into our short group at SPX 3,800+ on October 5th. Friday's NFP bear impulse does show energy to pressure the SPX 3,630/50 bull/bear line.
SPX chart shows downside follow through after downside impulses as does the oversold RSI reading (lacking any bull divergence). US yields and USD point north to provide bear fuel.
Below SPX 3,630 (after an uptick) does favor minor new lows in the US that is part of the bottom building process outlined for October.


Fresh Assault on SPX 3,630 Bull/Bear Line

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Lack of Labour Market Slack and Preserving High Operating Margins Precludes Fed Policy Pivot

The tight US labour market makes it impossible for the Fed to contemplate a policy pivot, notwithstanding elevated inflation. Preserving high...

DeSaque Macro Research

SPX Met 3,700 Sell Zone to Reduce Long Basket/Roll into Shorts

Call was to buy our long group for a mid-October short covering rally. Lofty CPI means we retest lows (late October). Top today for dip, better...

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Bear Market Until Proven Otherwise; Upgrading Industrials to Overweight; Buys Within Industrials

Bear market rally remains in play if the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on $SPX, and if $162-$163 holds on $IWM. Longer-term, this is still a bear...

Vermilion Research

Fresh Assault on SPX 3,630 Bull/Bear Line

We recommended rolling back into our short group at SPX 3,800+ on October 5th. Friday's NFP bear impulse does show energy to pressure the SPX 3,630...

Thomas Schroeder

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

Weekly anaylsis of volatility changes across 8 major indices. We discuss the changes in implied vols, skew and spot and look for any trading...

Simon Harris