Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
 Bear market caused by sharp monetary squeeze as Central Bank liquidity withdrawn. More pain to come US Federal Reserve is now leading the charge. </li>
<li>QT is slated to begin in June, but Fed has already been secretly tightening liquidity for months</li>
<li>Effective Fed balance sheet is set to contract by US$2 trillion under QT plans, but policy error could easily force a bigger US$3 trillion correction and crater stock prices</li>
</ul>



 Bear market caused by sharp monetary squeeze as Central Bank liquidity withdrawn. More pain to come US Federal Reserve is now leading the charge. 
QT is slated to begin in June, but Fed has already been secretly tightening liquidity for months
Effective Fed balance sheet is set to contract by US$2 trillion under QT plans, but policy error could easily force a bigger US$3 trillion correction and crater stock prices


SPX (S&P500) Will Probably Hit 3200 (Minus 18%) …It Could Even Test 2500 (Minus 35%)!

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>NDX break of 12,500 pivot support was touted as the lead trigger for the SPX to break below 4,080 pivot support to step up short exposure and reduce longs.</li>
<li>NDX 12,500 and SPX 4,100 are now key resistance levels. RTY short from 1,900+ also staring to work.</li>
<li>NDX 12,100 is the next key support. SPX supports at 3,990 and 3,920 (the later more important). Cycle called to turn south around mid-June into late June.</li>
</ul>


NDX break of 12,500 pivot support was touted as the lead trigger for the SPX to break below 4,080 pivot support to step up short exposure and reduce longs.
NDX 12,500 and SPX 4,100 are now key resistance levels. RTY short from 1,900+ also staring to work.
NDX 12,100 is the next key support. SPX supports at 3,990 and 3,920 (the later more important). Cycle called to turn south around mid-June into late June.


NDX and SPX Pivot Support Breaks and Downside Targets

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see the current environment as a bear market rally with the potential for it turn into something more following bullish breadth thrust signals.</li>
<li>The SPX and NDX have been treading water for a week (bull flags?), but the Russell 2000, DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI), and KWEB have continued to move higher.</li>
<li>We are also seeing major bullish reversals on Europe's STOXX 50 and Japan's Nikkei 225, topside 6- and 9-month downtrends, respectively. These are far from bearish signs.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see the current environment as a bear market rally with the potential for it turn into something more following bullish breadth thrust signals.
The SPX and NDX have been treading water for a week (bull flags?), but the Russell 2000, DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI), and KWEB have continued to move higher.
We are also seeing major bullish reversals on Europe's STOXX 50 and Japan's Nikkei 225, topside 6- and 9-month downtrends, respectively. These are far from bearish signs.


Small-Caps Starting to Lead; Short-Term Flag Patterns on Major Indexes; Ideas in Energy & Materials

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The price of crude oil is up for 6 months in a row, the second longest winning streak since 1983. </li><li>Retail gas prices are about to surge yet again. RBOB closed at $4.30 on Friday indicating that the national US regular gasoline will likely surge to a $5.15/gallon by July 4th.</li><li>The AAA US national average price of a gallon of gas has risen 4 cents or more for 3 straight days. </li></ul>

The price of crude oil is up for 6 months in a row, the second longest winning streak since 1983. Retail gas prices are about to surge yet again. RBOB closed at $4.30 on Friday indicating that the national US regular gasoline will likely surge to a $5.15/gallon by July 4th.The AAA US national average price of a gallon of gas has risen 4 cents or more for 3 straight days. 

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are quite a few changes for stocks across the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a>, MidCap 400 Index and SmallCap 600 Index that will result in a one-way trade of US$30bn.</li>
<li>There are adds/deletes that have over 5 days of ADV to trade from passive funds, plus many stocks that have over +/-1 day of ADV from other changes.</li>
<li>The largest impact of passive buying will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keurig-dr-pepper-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15411:1" rel="noopener">Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/on-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2729:1" rel="noopener">On Semiconductor (ON US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vici-properties-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28786:1" rel="noopener">VICI Properties Inc (VICI US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are quite a few changes for stocks across the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX), MidCap 400 Index and SmallCap 600 Index that will result in a one-way trade of US$30bn.
There are adds/deletes that have over 5 days of ADV to trade from passive funds, plus many stocks that have over +/-1 day of ADV from other changes.
The largest impact of passive buying will be on Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP US), On Semiconductor (ON US) and VICI Properties Inc (VICI US). 


S&P500 Index Rebalance: One-Way Trade of US$30bn

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

SPX (S&P500) Will Probably Hit 3200 (Minus 18%) …It Could Even Test 2500 (Minus 35%)!

We remain (very) bearish. Do not be lured back. SPX (S&P500) is slated to test 3200, and could with a coming Fed policy error slump tp 2500.

Michael J. Howell

NDX and SPX Pivot Support Breaks and Downside Targets

NDX break of 12,500 pivot support was touted as the lead trigger for the SPX to break below 4,080 pivot support to step up short exposure and...

Thomas Schroeder

Small-Caps Starting to Lead; Short-Term Flag Patterns on Major Indexes; Ideas in Energy & Materials

We still see this as a bear market rally with the potential for it turn into something more following bullish breadth thrust signals in recent...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 6/6

The price of crude oil is up for 6 months in a row, the second longest winning streak since 1983. $USO is up 85% during this period while natural...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

S&P500 Index Rebalance: One-Way Trade of US$30bn

There are 3 changes for the S&P500, plus more changes for the MidCap and SmallCap indices. We estimate a one-way trade of US$30bn across the...

Brian Freitas