Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We continue to believe that caution is warranted in U.S. equities and we are concerned that key support levels may not hold -- notably 2,800 and the 200-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 and 4,125 and the 200-day MA on the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500. In this report we highlight several negative developments which increase the likelihood of a breakdown below these key S&amp;P 500 support levels, as well as some attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Communications, Services, and Transportation.

We continue to believe that caution is warranted in U.S. equities and we are concerned that key support levels may not hold -- notably 2,800 and the 200-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 and 4,125 and the 200-day MA on the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500. In this report we highlight several negative developments which increase the likelihood of a breakdown below these key S&amp;P 500 support levels, as well as some attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Communications, Services, and Transportation.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Caution Warranted; Downgrading Materials

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

We outlined the domino tech breakdown cycle in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sox-cracks-that-would-impact-the-global-tech-cycle" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29471">SOX Cracks that Would Impact the Global Tech Cycle</a> on April 29 where "semi’s tend to lead the NDX cycle which leads the SPX. These levels are critical components for the broader US equity cycle". US/China trade break down was simply the catalyst for overbought markets with deteriorating breadth.SOX short call is rolling into tech and impacting the global tech cycle as we have seen the likes of TSMC, Taiwan tech, Tencent, SEC and SK Hynix all come under intense selling pressure.We are nearing key levels in the NDX and SPX that would take the global cycle lower and intensify risk aversion.Asia has sliced through support levels like butter on the back of outflows, tech pressure and our USD bull call.

We outlined the domino tech breakdown cycle in our SOX Cracks that Would Impact the Global Tech Cycle on April 29 where "semi’s tend to lead the NDX cycle which leads the SPX. These levels are critical components for the broader US equity cycle". US/China trade break down was simply the catalyst for overbought markets with deteriorating breadth.SOX short call is rolling into tech and impacting the global tech cycle as we have seen the likes of TSMC, Taiwan tech, Tencent, SEC and SK Hynix all come under intense selling pressure.We are nearing key levels in the NDX and SPX that would take the global cycle lower and intensify risk aversion.Asia has sliced through support levels like butter on the back of outflows, tech pressure and our USD bull call.

SOX Bleed into NDX, SPX and Global Tech Playing Out

In last week’s Compass (5/14) we laid our case for a more cautious outlook as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, FXI), steep price and RS uptrend violations for Technology (XLK, RYT), improving RS for defensive areas of the market, and weakness in copper. Our outlook remains neutral. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples and Utilities.

In last week’s Compass (5/14) we laid our case for a more cautious outlook as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, FXI), steep price and RS uptrend violations for Technology (XLK, RYT), improving RS for defensive areas of the market, and weakness in copper. Our outlook remains neutral. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples and Utilities.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook; Opportunities Within Staples and Utilities

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors 

U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

SPX bounce from 2,800 support targeted 2,850-60 which has been met with overhead pivot resistance that is critical to the immediate bias.Our cycle work implies we could see a choppy rising wedge form into late May with a more negative cycle due in June. We outline trade levels on the short and long side into late May.NDX 7,730 pivot support break will now act as macro resistance and a clear rejection level with a fade target well below this inflection point. This break shaped global risk as well as joined the underperform camp with transports, DJI, banks, small caps and the SOX (a bigger negative for breadth).

SPX bounce from 2,800 support targeted 2,850-60 which has been met with overhead pivot resistance that is critical to the immediate bias.Our cycle work implies we could see a choppy rising wedge form into late May with a more negative cycle due in June. We outline trade levels on the short and long side into late May.NDX 7,730 pivot support break will now act as macro resistance and a clear rejection level with a fade target well below this inflection point. This break shaped global risk as well as joined the underperform camp with transports, DJI, banks, small caps and the SOX (a bigger negative for breadth).

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Caution Warranted; Downgrading Materials

We continue to believe that caution is warranted in U.S. equities and we are concerned that key support levels may not hold -- notably 2,800 and...

Vermilion Research

SOX Bleed into NDX, SPX and Global Tech Playing Out

We outlined the domino tech breakdown cycle in our SOX Cracks that Would Impact the Global Tech Cycle on April 29 where "semi’s tend to lead the...

Thomas Schroeder

U.S. Equity Strategy: Neutral Outlook; Opportunities Within Staples and Utilities

In last week’s Compass (5/14) we laid our case for a more cautious outlook as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more...

Vermilion Research

SPX and NDX Tactics into Late May

SPX bounce from 2,800 support targeted 2,850-60 which has been met with overhead pivot resistance that is critical to the immediate bias.Our cycle...

Thomas Schroeder