Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Commodities

INVESTMENT VIEW: Since mid-March there has been the emergence of a negatively sloped correlation between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22886" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> with a meaningfully high correlation coefficient of 0.8 since mid-March. 
Parallels could be made to 2011 when Gold also stepped up as the preferred hedge against falling equities, as bonds weren't trusted because of the US debt ceiling crisis.     
We remain short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8632" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1">Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US)</a> ...and hope equities don't crash...

INVESTMENT VIEW: Since mid-March there has been the emergence of a negatively sloped correlation between Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) with a meaningfully high correlation coefficient of 0.8 since mid-March. 
Parallels could be made to 2011 when Gold also stepped up as the preferred hedge against falling equities, as bonds weren't trusted because of the US debt ceiling crisis.     
We remain short Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US) ...and hope equities don't crash...

Gold Is Being Used to Hedge an Equity Crash

Partner, River Valley Asset Management

River Valley Asset Management

Partner

Singapore-based boutique asset management firm

River Valley Asset Management is a Singapore-based boutique asset management firm. Our team at RVAM strongly believes in being a trusted steward of our clients' wealth across generations.

Each of our fund managers has years of rich portfolio management experience over multiple market cycles at world-class investment houses. We bring our clients the combined strength of our investment team to manage their financial portfolios and to provide bespoke guidance on all aspects of their financial health.

We offer multi-asset class expert investment advice to accredited investors who are family offices, high net worth individuals and institutional investors to preserve and grow our clients' wealth.

The fund management team of the company includes Homiyar Vasania, Anand Ramachandran and Jamshed Desai.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We often get asked to compare the quantum, source and quality of the return from the US market and the return from Asian markets (<a href="http://www.rivervalleyasset.com/" target="_blank">River Valley Asset's </a>home market) from the perspective of where more wealth has been created over time, how investors can participate in this wealth creation and the sustainability of this wealth creation. With diverging performance of Asian &amp; US markets this year, it is a topical question and in this short analysis we try to address some of the issues. We look at long run returns in each market, the earnings growth, the valuation and how it has changed over two decades. While it is easy to get caught up in the headlines, facts are what they are the numbers actually tell their own story, which from an Asian context looks compelling.

We often get asked to compare the quantum, source and quality of the return from the US market and the return from Asian markets (River Valley Asset's home market) from the perspective of where more wealth has been created over time, how investors can participate in this wealth creation and the sustainability of this wealth creation. With diverging performance of Asian &amp; US markets this year, it is a topical question and in this short analysis we try to address some of the issues. We look at long run returns in each market, the earnings growth, the valuation and how it has changed over two decades. While it is easy to get caught up in the headlines, facts are what they are the numbers actually tell their own story, which from an Asian context looks compelling.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns was not far off. In today’s report we assess the damage and highlight key support levels.  We also highlight attractive Groups  and stocks within the Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples Sectors.

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns was not far off. In today’s report we assess the damage and highlight key support levels.  We also highlight attractive Groups  and stocks within the Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples Sectors.

Key Support Levels Being Tested for U.S. Indexes

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Serious.  It could easily mark the beginning of a bear market.So I have posted below Friday's commentary from Global Markets Review.  The previous two weeks' were headed Trend termination pattern in the US? and Another critical juncture, respectively and all three are available on request from <a href="mailto:jo@mtsresearch.com" target="_blank">joanne@mtsresearch.com</a>.  This is my first post since 2nd July, because previous analysis did not attract a great deal of interest, possibly because, as Technical Analysis goes, it is quite "technical"!  And it was less obvious that we were on the verge of a bear market.  However, if we get a decent response to this offer, I will start posting here again.In any event, a belated thank you to all of you who did take an interest.

Serious.  It could easily mark the beginning of a bear market.So I have posted below Friday's commentary from Global Markets Review.  The previous two weeks' were headed Trend termination pattern in the US? and Another critical juncture, respectively and all three are available on request from joanne@mtsresearch.com.  This is my first post since 2nd July, because previous analysis did not attract a great deal of interest, possibly because, as Technical Analysis goes, it is quite "technical"!  And it was less obvious that we were on the verge of a bear market.  However, if we get a decent response to this offer, I will start posting here again.In any event, a belated thank you to all of you who did take an interest.

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Crude tumbled 6-7% from its four-year high last week amid a shocking global stock markets rout, reminiscent of the financial markets turmoil of February this year. 
While investors’ jitters are similar this time and crude is likely to be dragged along if the financial markets continue on a roller-coaster ride, we expect the downside to be limited, as long as the Iran sanctions factor remains in play. 
At the same time, we are maintaining the view that crude’s rally doesn’t have much more room left. OECD stocks have been rising for the past few months, OPEC+ output is substantially higher, and last week the IEA, OPEC as well as the EIA revised down their projections for global oil demand growth.
While we concede that the full impact of the US sanctions against Iran has yet to be felt, we expect OPEC+ will continue stretching to its production limits and the US will use sanction waivers and the release of barrels from its strategic reserves if needed as safety valves to let some steam out from crude prices.

Crude tumbled 6-7% from its four-year high last week amid a shocking global stock markets rout, reminiscent of the financial markets turmoil of February this year. 
While investors’ jitters are similar this time and crude is likely to be dragged along if the financial markets continue on a roller-coaster ride, we expect the downside to be limited, as long as the Iran sanctions factor remains in play. 
At the same time, we are maintaining the view that crude’s rally doesn’t have much more room left. OECD stocks have been rising for the past few months, OPEC+ output is substantially higher, and last week the IEA, OPEC as well as the EIA revised down their projections for global oil demand growth.
While we concede that the full impact of the US sanctions against Iran has yet to be felt, we expect OPEC+ will continue stretching to its production limits and the US will use sanction waivers and the release of barrels from its strategic reserves if needed as safety valves to let some steam out from crude prices.

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Slides in Sympathy with Equities but Downside Looks Limited

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Gold Is Being Used to Hedge an Equity Crash

INVESTMENT VIEW:Since mid-March there has been the emergence of a negatively sloped correlation between Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and the S&P 500 (SPX...

Charles Spencer

Tale of Two Markets - Asia & USA

We often get asked to compare the quantum, source and quality of the return from the US market and the return from Asian markets (River Valley...

River Valley Asset Management

Key Support Levels Being Tested for U.S. Indexes

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500: How Serious Is This Sell-Off?

Serious. It could easily mark the beginning of a bear market.So I have posted below Friday's commentary from Global Markets Review. The previous...

Peter Beuttell

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Slides in Sympathy with Equities but Downside Looks Limited

Crude tumbled 6-7% from its four-year high last week amid a shocking global stock markets rout, reminiscent of the financial markets turmoil of...

Vandana Hari