Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<p><strong>Executive summary</strong>: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. </p>
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<strong>This week in trade ideas</strong>, we are tactically long S&amp;P volatility and short EUR-JPY. On a strategic basis, we are long German DAX and Malaysian equities, while short Brazilian stocks and US Treasuries.</li>
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<strong>Monday</strong>: Markets will begin the week digesting weekend events in Washington (government shutdown talks), Germany (SPD convention) and possibly Oman (OPEC-Russia meeting).</li>
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<strong>Tuesday</strong> brings the BOJ meeting and…</li>
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Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 


This week in trade ideas, we are tactically long S&amp;P volatility and short EUR-JPY. On a strategic basis, we are long German DAX and Malaysian equities, while short Brazilian stocks and US Treasuries.

Monday: Markets will begin the week digesting weekend events in Washington (government shutdown talks), Germany (SPD convention) and possibly Oman (OPEC-Russia meeting).

Tuesday brings the BOJ meeting and…



Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Shutdown, Germany SPD, BOJ, ECB, Malaysia BNM, Brazil Lula in Court

Amareos

Ryan Shea

<h2>Summary</h2><p><em>The calendar year may have changed recently, but the underlying trend in global equity markets has not. The bulls are still in charge and the major indices have all continued to track higher (talk about year highs when it is only a handful of days old is simply ridiculous although it happens!).</em></p><p><em>In terms of Wall Street, as we and almost all value-based investors have noted, from a historical perspective it is hard to argue that US large cap equities are cheap, rather the contrary – they</em>…</p>

SummaryThe calendar year may have changed recently, but the underlying trend in global equity markets has not. The bulls are still in charge and the major indices have all continued to track higher (talk about year highs when it is only a handful of days old is simply ridiculous although it happens!).In terms of Wall Street, as we and almost all value-based investors have noted, from a historical perspective it is hard to argue that US large cap equities are cheap, rather the contrary – they…

The Market Sentimentalist - Are We There Yet? (Thoughts on US Equities)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Outside of weakness in interest-rate sensitive segments, namely REITs and Utilities, the latter which is breaking down to 15-year relative strength lows, U.S. equity market technicals remain constructive. And allowing for occasional back and filling, we expect this bullish trend to continue. In today's report, we outline our investment thesis and highlight actionable names in energy service stocks.</p>

Outside of weakness in interest-rate sensitive segments, namely REITs and Utilities, the latter which is breaking down to 15-year relative strength lows, U.S. equity market technicals remain constructive. And allowing for occasional back and filling, we expect this bullish trend to continue. In today's report, we outline our investment thesis and highlight actionable names in energy service stocks.

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

<p>I should start by saying that the credit for noticing this correlation goes to Tom McClellan of<em> The McClellan Market Report</em> (he is the son of Sherman and Marion McClellan of the Oscillator fame).  Since that is a US-centric publication, many of you may not have seen it. </p><p>Tom has been pointing out for some years that the stock market “echoes” Oil with a 10-year lag.  He does not offer any logic for the delay.  I can't think of a reason either, so at best this is one for the "for what it's worth"…</p>

I should start by saying that the credit for noticing this correlation goes to Tom McClellan of The McClellan Market Report (he is the son of Sherman and Marion McClellan of the Oscillator fame).  Since that is a US-centric publication, many of you may not have seen it. Tom has been pointing out for some years that the stock market “echoes” Oil with a 10-year lag.  He does not offer any logic for the delay.  I can't think of a reason either, so at best this is one for the "for what it's worth"…

S&P 500: An Unwelcome Correlation with Oil for 2018

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<div style="text-align: left;"><strong>S&amp;P Jan sequence and action points</strong></div><div style="text-align: left;"><strong> </strong></div><p>Our base case called for a strong start to January (Q4 melt up call into Q1) and then a stall cycle around mid-January (11th or the 14th ideally). Here way lay out ST upside projections and where to put on some protection and our pullback buy support targets. This sequence will shape risk in Asia as EEM pushes to key resistance at 50.50.</p><p>Our NDX ST target comes in at 6,720. SOX is poised for new highs but may stall near 1,340-50 and then follow through with a…</p>

S&amp;P Jan sequence and action points Our base case called for a strong start to January (Q4 melt up call into Q1) and then a stall cycle around mid-January (11th or the 14th ideally). Here way lay out ST upside projections and where to put on some protection and our pullback buy support targets. This sequence will shape risk in Asia as EEM pushes to key resistance at 50.50.Our NDX ST target comes in at 6,720. SOX is poised for new highs but may stall near 1,340-50 and then follow through with a…

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Shutdown, Germany SPD, BOJ, ECB, Malaysia BNM, Brazil Lula in Court

Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas, we are tactically...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

The Market Sentimentalist - Are We There Yet? (Thoughts on US Equities)

SummaryThe calendar year may have changed recently, but the underlying trend in global equity markets has not. The bulls are still in charge and...

Amareos

U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly

Outside of weakness in interest-rate sensitive segments, namely REITs and Utilities, the latter which is breaking down to 15-year relative strength...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500: An Unwelcome Correlation with Oil for 2018

I should start by saying that the credit for noticing this correlation goes to Tom McClellan of The McClellan Market Report (he is the son of...

Peter Beuttell

S&P Jan Fade Sequence, Sell-Buy Levels

S&P Jan sequence and action points Our base case called for a strong start to January (Q4 melt up call into Q1) and then a stall cycle around...

Thomas Schroeder