Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

<p>The outcome of the 5 January Senate races in Georgia could determine whether Democrats gain effective control of the upper chamber, thereby increasing the chances of an unfettered economic agenda being pushed by a Biden Administration. The corporate sector will be adversely impacted by the Biden Administration's planned economic measures, while the yield curve should steepen due to higher government borrowing.</p>
<p>The US labour market continues to heal at a much faster rate than envisaged by the Fed, despite widespread fears of a fiscal cliff engulfing the economy. Prospective inflation trends will dictate the timing of the first increase in the federal funds rate off its zero-bound floor.</p>
<div>The second wave spread of the COVID-19 virus has been faster-than-anticipated, but an incoming Biden Administration will have to wait until after inauguration to implement national measures to mitigate rising infections. There will be great reluctance to sanction extended local lockdowns with the onset of the Christmas holiday season, thereby implying rising infections for the foreseeable future.</div>
<div></div>
<div>There are rumours already circulating about new appointments under a Biden Administration, including the replacement of Fed Chair Powell when his term expires in 2022.</div>

The outcome of the 5 January Senate races in Georgia could determine whether Democrats gain effective control of the upper chamber, thereby increasing the chances of an unfettered economic agenda being pushed by a Biden Administration. The corporate sector will be adversely impacted by the Biden Administration's planned economic measures, while the yield curve should steepen due to higher government borrowing.
The US labour market continues to heal at a much faster rate than envisaged by the Fed, despite widespread fears of a fiscal cliff engulfing the economy. Prospective inflation trends will dictate the timing of the first increase in the federal funds rate off its zero-bound floor.
The second wave spread of the COVID-19 virus has been faster-than-anticipated, but an incoming Biden Administration will have to wait until after inauguration to implement national measures to mitigate rising infections. There will be great reluctance to sanction extended local lockdowns with the onset of the Christmas holiday season, thereby implying rising infections for the foreseeable future.

There are rumours already circulating about new appointments under a Biden Administration, including the replacement of Fed Chair Powell when his term expires in 2022.

US Financial Markets Ignore Economic Data as Election Outcome and COVID-19 Uncertainties Linger

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p>We wanted to bring your attention to numerous bullish equity pattern setups in the US and Asia that are taking shape.</p><p>Bull triangulation in the SPX and NDX point to a major breakout higher with targets noted. Near term risk of a pullback is a buying opportunity. Our recent update and insight called for turning long near SPX 3,21-20 support where we put on risk in the US and Asia.</p><p>Compelling bullish patterns are itching for a bull breakout in Taiwan, Korea and Australia. CSI 300 flat breakout would make H shares a compelling laggard play.</p>

We wanted to bring your attention to numerous bullish equity pattern setups in the US and Asia that are taking shape.Bull triangulation in the SPX and NDX point to a major breakout higher with targets noted. Near term risk of a pullback is a buying opportunity. Our recent update and insight called for turning long near SPX 3,21-20 support where we put on risk in the US and Asia.Compelling bullish patterns are itching for a bull breakout in Taiwan, Korea and Australia. CSI 300 flat breakout would make H shares a compelling laggard play.

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>The failure of the Democrats to achieve their so-called "blue wave" has not prevented a rally in US equities in the aftermath of the Presidential Election. Political gridlock increases the prospects of continued non-inflationary growth and, consequently, supportive monetary policy from the Fed.</p>
<p>Political gridlock in Washington has historically been beneficial for US equities, largely because economic management passes by default to the Fed. Meanwhile, divided government has produced its most superior returns since 1980, a period of extremely high Fed credibility compared to the earlier post-World War 2 period.</p>
<p>The importance of Fed Chair Powell in economic management will increase significantly in the aftermath of the disputed election, particularly given the likelihood of diluted fiscal stimulus next year.</p>

The failure of the Democrats to achieve their so-called "blue wave" has not prevented a rally in US equities in the aftermath of the Presidential Election. Political gridlock increases the prospects of continued non-inflationary growth and, consequently, supportive monetary policy from the Fed.
Political gridlock in Washington has historically been beneficial for US equities, largely because economic management passes by default to the Fed. Meanwhile, divided government has produced its most superior returns since 1980, a period of extremely high Fed credibility compared to the earlier post-World War 2 period.
The importance of Fed Chair Powell in economic management will increase significantly in the aftermath of the disputed election, particularly given the likelihood of diluted fiscal stimulus next year.

Fed Chair Powell Becomes the Most Powerful Person in Washington DC After Presidential Election

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<p>In last Tuesday’s <em>Compass</em> (10/27/20) we noted the S&amp;P 500’s break below 3425 short-term support opened the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200. Support at 3325 was violated by Wednesday, however the 3200-3230 level has held and remains important support moving forward.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials: Asian Banks, Puerto Rican Banks, Banks, Southwest, and Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap</p>

In last Tuesday’s Compass (10/27/20) we noted the S&amp;P 500’s break below 3425 short-term support opened the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200. Support at 3325 was violated by Wednesday, however the 3200-3230 level has held and remains important support moving forward.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials: Asian Banks, Puerto Rican Banks, Banks, Southwest, and Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap

U.S. Equity Strategy: Markets Bouncing off Key Support

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p>The pollsters have egg on their faces again, with President Trump performing far better than the polls had suggested all year. The Electoral College is close to a dead heat, with the "path to the presidency" for Biden hanging by slender margins in 4 states. President Trump disingenuously suggested that votes "cast after election day" are still being counted -- and that he would mount legal challenges to stop the counting. This was the nightmare scenario: an extremely close election, with Trump leading in several states on Election Day, only to have that vote count overturned in favour of Biden once the mail-in/absentee ballots were (legitimately) counted. </p><p>Our estimate suggests that former Vice President Biden will still win the presidency, but do so after a messy counting process, with wild swings in many states -- particularly the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina. Trump won Ohio (as polls had suggested) and Florida (against the polls, which had suggested a narrow Biden win there). As was widely expected, Michigan and Pennsylvania were able to start counting mail-in ballots only on Election Day, and these have delayed the process. But with likely victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia, Joe Biden will get past the magic mark of 270 in the Electoral College, and be elected President. However, the Democrats are likely to see their majority in the House of Representatives whittled down severely, and the Senate will likely stay in Republican hands, which will oblige President-elect Biden to hew to the centrist line he prefers.  </p><p>Biden is still likely to be able to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% (30.8% for corporates that have offshored goods and services), and undertake some of his plans for boosting infrastructure and green investment. But the more radical parts of the Democratic platform will be much tougher to enact -- including expanding the Supreme Court, widening Obamacare, and extending green regulation. Instead, Biden is likely to include a couple of Republicans in his Cabinet, and rule from the centre. While the next few days will be taken up with Trumpian legal challenges to the counting process -- which will prolong the uncertainty over the election outcome -- a Biden win will soon come to be accepted by most, including many Republicans. We were expecting a big sell-off in the market in November if there was a "blue wave". But this form of divided government is a better outcome: after a sell-off of 4-5% as the market digests the uncertainty and the impact of the Biden tax hikes on corporates, we expect the equity market to rebound. On a 3-6 month view, we are positive on the outlook for equities.    </p>

The pollsters have egg on their faces again, with President Trump performing far better than the polls had suggested all year. The Electoral College is close to a dead heat, with the "path to the presidency" for Biden hanging by slender margins in 4 states. President Trump disingenuously suggested that votes "cast after election day" are still being counted -- and that he would mount legal challenges to stop the counting. This was the nightmare scenario: an extremely close election, with Trump leading in several states on Election Day, only to have that vote count overturned in favour of Biden once the mail-in/absentee ballots were (legitimately) counted. Our estimate suggests that former Vice President Biden will still win the presidency, but do so after a messy counting process, with wild swings in many states -- particularly the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina. Trump won Ohio (as polls had suggested) and Florida (against the polls, which had suggested a narrow Biden win there). As was widely expected, Michigan and Pennsylvania were able to start counting mail-in ballots only on Election Day, and these have delayed the process. But with likely victories in Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia, Joe Biden will get past the magic mark of 270 in the Electoral College, and be elected President. However, the Democrats are likely to see their majority in the House of Representatives whittled down severely, and the Senate will likely stay in Republican hands, which will oblige President-elect Biden to hew to the centrist line he prefers.  Biden is still likely to be able to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% (30.8% for corporates that have offshored goods and services), and undertake some of his plans for boosting infrastructure and green investment. But the more radical parts of the Democratic platform will be much tougher to enact -- including expanding the Supreme Court, widening Obamacare, and extending green regulation. Instead, Biden is likely to include a couple of Republicans in his Cabinet, and rule from the centre. While the next few days will be taken up with Trumpian legal challenges to the counting process -- which will prolong the uncertainty over the election outcome -- a Biden win will soon come to be accepted by most, including many Republicans. We were expecting a big sell-off in the market in November if there was a "blue wave". But this form of divided government is a better outcome: after a sell-off of 4-5% as the market digests the uncertainty and the impact of the Biden tax hikes on corporates, we expect the equity market to rebound. On a 3-6 month view, we are positive on the outlook for equities.    

Election Cliffhanger Brings Near-Term Nightmare; but a Curtailed Left Helps Biden

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US Financial Markets Ignore Economic Data as Election Outcome and COVID-19 Uncertainties Linger

US financial markets are ignoring economic data. They are fixated with uncertainties related to the outcome of the elections and future strategies...

DeSaque Macro Research

Breakout Equity Patterns in Asia and US

Compelling bullish patterns are itching for a bull breakout in Taiwan, Korea and Australia. CSI 300 flat breakout would make H shares a compelling...

Thomas Schroeder

Fed Chair Powell Becomes the Most Powerful Person in Washington DC After Presidential Election

Since 1980, divided government and high Fed credibility have helped to produce stellar returns for US equities, thereby making Fed Chair Powell...

DeSaque Macro Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Markets Bouncing off Key Support

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials: Asian Banks, Puerto Rican banks, Banks, Southwest, and Investment...

Vermilion Research

Election Cliffhanger Brings Near-Term Nightmare; but a Curtailed Left Helps Biden

Uncertainty will be prolonged by legal challenges. But President-elect Biden will govern from the center, given a GOP Senate. After initial sell...

Prasenjit K. Basu