Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

Despite the US economy's resilience, the next Administration still faces formidable challenges, notably maintaining sufficient public demand to support continued healing in the labour market. Without further federal assistance, deep budget cuts by state &amp; local governments could imperil the economic recovery.
Arguments between Democrats and Republicans about the size of fiscal stimulus are essentially pointless, particularly given the lower value of fiscal multiplier during economic expansions. Targeted spending at alleviating restrictions on social gatherings will raise aggregate demand for those sectors of the economy that continue to be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Vice President Biden has pledged to raise the minimum wage and repeal part of the corporate tax cuts that were invoked in 2017, claiming that companies did not engage in meaningfully higher capital spending with their higher after-tax profits. Further costs will also be imposed on the corporate sector by a Biden Administration under the auspices of a Paycheck Fairness Act that would mandate equal pay between sexes and boost paid child care leave.
Both US Presidential candidates have vowed to reduce the country's economic reliance on China via legislation. A Biden Administration may be constrained in terms of offering major goodwill gestures to China due to strong protectionist sentiment amongst Congressional Democrats.
The COVID-19 pandemic has massively compounded an underlying level of business uncertainty that already prevailed due to trade tensions with China, and it is doubtful that a Biden Administration could quickly ignite animal spirits in sectors adversely impacted by tariffs. The available time to reset relations with China and deal with income inequality is very short for a Biden Administration, thereby making it difficult for the rapid return of animal spirits.

Despite the US economy's resilience, the next Administration still faces formidable challenges, notably maintaining sufficient public demand to support continued healing in the labour market. Without further federal assistance, deep budget cuts by state &amp; local governments could imperil the economic recovery.
Arguments between Democrats and Republicans about the size of fiscal stimulus are essentially pointless, particularly given the lower value of fiscal multiplier during economic expansions. Targeted spending at alleviating restrictions on social gatherings will raise aggregate demand for those sectors of the economy that continue to be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Vice President Biden has pledged to raise the minimum wage and repeal part of the corporate tax cuts that were invoked in 2017, claiming that companies did not engage in meaningfully higher capital spending with their higher after-tax profits. Further costs will also be imposed on the corporate sector by a Biden Administration under the auspices of a Paycheck Fairness Act that would mandate equal pay between sexes and boost paid child care leave.
Both US Presidential candidates have vowed to reduce the country's economic reliance on China via legislation. A Biden Administration may be constrained in terms of offering major goodwill gestures to China due to strong protectionist sentiment amongst Congressional Democrats.
The COVID-19 pandemic has massively compounded an underlying level of business uncertainty that already prevailed due to trade tensions with China, and it is doubtful that a Biden Administration could quickly ignite animal spirits in sectors adversely impacted by tariffs. The available time to reset relations with China and deal with income inequality is very short for a Biden Administration, thereby making it difficult for the rapid return of animal spirits.

Ensuring US Economic Growth: Next US Administration Faces Short Honeymoon to Deliver Promises

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

SPX turned bearish below 3,410 and we used the DJI to short at 27,700 (break below 28k pivot support) given the Dow is underperforming the SPX. NDX below 11,600 is the core risk driver. Lack of stimulus clarity and Covid on the rise weighing on pivot support breaks. Big tech earnings today expected to give NDX a lift (bounce trade up).SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 represent key pivot resistance points for a fresh short phase and the bull/bear line.Asia long levels outlined on weakness.

SPX turned bearish below 3,410 and we used the DJI to short at 27,700 (break below 28k pivot support) given the Dow is underperforming the SPX. NDX below 11,600 is the core risk driver. Lack of stimulus clarity and Covid on the rise weighing on pivot support breaks. Big tech earnings today expected to give NDX a lift (bounce trade up).SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600 represent key pivot resistance points for a fresh short phase and the bull/bear line.Asia long levels outlined on weakness.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Yesterday’s break below 3425 short-term support in the S&amp;P 500 opens the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200, two important support levels we are watching moving forward. With that said, as long as 3200 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. At the same time, small-caps are providing a risk-on signal with the Russell 2000 (IWM) still holding above $159 short-term support. Leadership from small-caps is something we would expect to see in a broad-based bull market, and if IWM is above $159 it is hard to get too bearish overall.

Yesterday’s break below 3425 short-term support in the S&amp;P 500 opens the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200, two important support levels we are watching moving forward. With that said, as long as 3200 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. At the same time, small-caps are providing a risk-on signal with the Russell 2000 (IWM) still holding above $159 short-term support. Leadership from small-caps is something we would expect to see in a broad-based bull market, and if IWM is above $159 it is hard to get too bearish overall.

FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

Base case calls for buying US equities at sub DJI 28k, SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600-500 while allowing for some noise to base and stage a fresh up cycle. Do not want to trade for any length of time below SPX 3,400 to hold longs. Asia long levels on a dip given odds the US ranges into the election barring a stimulus package announcement.Europe remains weak with a bias to short rally attempts as the short pair/long US.In Asia we have liked being long A shares, Australia, H shares and now see potential to work into a long in the Philippines. Top shorts are HSI, STI, KLSE. Taiwan and Korea are transitioning into the bull camp on a pullback to position for a break above key highs with new high projections noted.

Base case calls for buying US equities at sub DJI 28k, SPX 3,410 and NDX 11,600-500 while allowing for some noise to base and stage a fresh up cycle. Do not want to trade for any length of time below SPX 3,400 to hold longs. Asia long levels on a dip given odds the US ranges into the election barring a stimulus package announcement.Europe remains weak with a bias to short rally attempts as the short pair/long US.In Asia we have liked being long A shares, Australia, H shares and now see potential to work into a long in the Philippines. Top shorts are HSI, STI, KLSE. Taiwan and Korea are transitioning into the bull camp on a pullback to position for a break above key highs with new high projections noted.

The better-than-expected performance of the US economy since the fiscal cliff raises an issue as to whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been too pessimistic in their assessment of the economic outlook. Different dynamics have unfolded since the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic to those envisaged by the FOMC.
US households deployed stimulus payments to repair balance sheets during Q2, and could repeat the process if more fiscal easing is introduced. The decline in households' net worth during the COVID-19 recession was short-lived in stark contrast to the protracted period experienced in the aftermath of the Great Recession, thereby sowing the seeds for a faster economic recovery in 2020 H2.
Repeated calls by Chair Powell for further fiscal stimulus have resulted in some commentators to claim the Fed has embraced so-called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), whereby policy settings are dictated by the fiscal stance embraced by the government. Chair Powell believes easier fiscal and monetary policies will reduce downside risks for the economy, while there are currently limited negative consequences for excessive stimulus.
Hard-core advocates of MMT claim there is little risk of inflation due to the ever-present threat of higher taxes, thereby implying that bond yields should not be too adversely affected by rising inflationary expectations.  Under MMT, the Fed would aim to cap a dangerous rise in long-term interest rates via yield curve control, something which has yet to happen in 2020. 
The arrival of large federal budget surpluses in the late-1990s raised the spectre of a shrinking supply of Treasuries onto the open-market, thereby incurring implications for the equity risk premium and US equity valuations. Current US equity dynamics are similar to the late-1990s, but, despite large federal budget deficits, quantitative easing has succeeded in reducing the supply of Treasuries, thereby forcing investors into riskier assets due to lower-expected returns on risk-free instruments.

The better-than-expected performance of the US economy since the fiscal cliff raises an issue as to whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been too pessimistic in their assessment of the economic outlook. Different dynamics have unfolded since the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic to those envisaged by the FOMC.
US households deployed stimulus payments to repair balance sheets during Q2, and could repeat the process if more fiscal easing is introduced. The decline in households' net worth during the COVID-19 recession was short-lived in stark contrast to the protracted period experienced in the aftermath of the Great Recession, thereby sowing the seeds for a faster economic recovery in 2020 H2.
Repeated calls by Chair Powell for further fiscal stimulus have resulted in some commentators to claim the Fed has embraced so-called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), whereby policy settings are dictated by the fiscal stance embraced by the government. Chair Powell believes easier fiscal and monetary policies will reduce downside risks for the economy, while there are currently limited negative consequences for excessive stimulus.
Hard-core advocates of MMT claim there is little risk of inflation due to the ever-present threat of higher taxes, thereby implying that bond yields should not be too adversely affected by rising inflationary expectations.  Under MMT, the Fed would aim to cap a dangerous rise in long-term interest rates via yield curve control, something which has yet to happen in 2020. 
The arrival of large federal budget surpluses in the late-1990s raised the spectre of a shrinking supply of Treasuries onto the open-market, thereby incurring implications for the equity risk premium and US equity valuations. Current US equity dynamics are similar to the late-1990s, but, despite large federal budget deficits, quantitative easing has succeeded in reducing the supply of Treasuries, thereby forcing investors into riskier assets due to lower-expected returns on risk-free instruments.    

Has the Fed Embraced Modern Monetary Theory? Calls for Fiscal Backup Despite Economic Resilience

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

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