Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>We revisit the evolving correlation between US equities, bonds, and the dollar post-Liberation Day.</li>
<li>Recent asset price behavior may be signaling a deeper structural shift in US market dynamics.</li>
<li>Market moves suggest that traditional hedging assumptions may need to be re-evaluated.</li>
</ul>


We revisit the evolving correlation between US equities, bonds, and the dollar post-Liberation Day.
Recent asset price behavior may be signaling a deeper structural shift in US market dynamics.
Market moves suggest that traditional hedging assumptions may need to be re-evaluated.


US Asset Correlations Spike: Early Days, But A New Regime May Be Unfolding

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>What are major global bond markets telling us about the world?</li>
<li>We look at potential beneficiaries  of the next wave of inflation </li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
What are major global bond markets telling us about the world?
We look at potential beneficiaries  of the next wave of inflation 


Overview #27 – The Big Beautiful Tragi-Comedy Continues

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>US treasuries ended mixed yesterday, with the curve steepening materially amid concerns over the US budget deficit and President Donald Trump’s impending tax-cut bill.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST fell 1 bp to 3.97%, while the yield on the 10Y UST rose 4 bps to 4.49%.</li>
<li>US equities retreated after a six-day rally, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq both declining 0.4% to 5,940 and 19,143, respectively. </li>
</ul>


US treasuries ended mixed yesterday, with the curve steepening materially amid concerns over the US budget deficit and President Donald Trump’s impending tax-cut bill.
The yield on the 2Y UST fell 1 bp to 3.97%, while the yield on the 10Y UST rose 4 bps to 4.49%.
US equities retreated after a six-day rally, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq both declining 0.4% to 5,940 and 19,143, respectively. 


Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>A market-timing device that classifies historical trend patterns/reversals in "buckets", to generate a "matrix" showing the market's average trend reversal "behavior" at the end of each trend "type". </li>
<li>A purely statistical approach: using Bayesian Models to determine the probability of DAILY or WEEKLY trend reversal at precise LONG/SHORT support prices at fixed points in time.</li>
<li>The analogy with the game of Blackjack: knowing the probability of a trend reversal can be 30% or 90% (not always =50%) can be a significant edge for the investor.</li>
</ul>


A market-timing device that classifies historical trend patterns/reversals in "buckets", to generate a "matrix" showing the market's average trend reversal "behavior" at the end of each trend "type". 
A purely statistical approach: using Bayesian Models to determine the probability of DAILY or WEEKLY trend reversal at precise LONG/SHORT support prices at fixed points in time.
The analogy with the game of Blackjack: knowing the probability of a trend reversal can be 30% or 90% (not always =50%) can be a significant edge for the investor.


EQD | Introducing the Market Reversal Matrix (MRM): Predict Trend Reversal with Bayesian Models

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Continuing the trend from last week's report (4/29/25), we are seeing more and more signs that lead us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, initially discussed 4/8/25.</li>
<li>As a result, we have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 report, when we noted SPX was testing 5100-5120 support, potential bounce spot and a level to trade long against.</li>
<li>While SPX is approaching short-term resistance levels and reducing risk is prudent, we remain short-term bullish if SPX is above its 20-day MA and 21-day EMA.</li>
</ul>


Continuing the trend from last week's report (4/29/25), we are seeing more and more signs that lead us to believe SPX made a major bottom at 4800-4820, initially discussed 4/8/25.
As a result, we have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 report, when we noted SPX was testing 5100-5120 support, potential bounce spot and a level to trade long against.
While SPX is approaching short-term resistance levels and reducing risk is prudent, we remain short-term bullish if SPX is above its 20-day MA and 21-day EMA.


Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels But Stay Short-Term Bullish Above 20-DMA

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

US Asset Correlations Spike: Early Days, But A New Regime May Be Unfolding

Recent market movements post-Liberation Day indicate a potential structural shift in US market dynamics, prompting a re-evaluation of traditional...

John Ley

Overview #27 – The Big Beautiful Tragi-Comedy Continues

More positive news for the Uranium Sector. Jefferies upgraded the Australian uranium miners yesterday with $PDN, $BOE and $DLY rallying 15-20% & up...

Rikki Malik

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US treasuries ended mixed yesterday, with the curve steepening materially amid concerns over the US budget deficit and President Donald Trump’s...

Lucror Analytics

EQD | Introducing the Market Reversal Matrix (MRM): Predict Trend Reversal with Bayesian Models

"Market Reversal Matrix" is a newcomer on Smartkarma's platform. This is the "anchor" insight explaining the methodology and process behind this...

Nico Rosti

Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels But Stay Short-Term Bullish Above 20-DMA

Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels from here to 5910, But Stay Short-Term Bullish if Above 20-DMA and 21-EMAs. Still bullish...

Vermilion Research

US Asset Correlations Spike: Early Days, But A New Regime May Be Unfolding

​Recent market movements post-Liberation Day indicate a potential structural shift in US market dynamics, prompting a re-evaluation of traditional...

John Ley

Overview #27 – The Big Beautiful Tragi-Comedy Continues

More positive news for the Uranium Sector. Jefferies upgraded the Australian uranium miners yesterday with $PDN, $BOE and $DLY rallying 15-20% & up...

Rikki Malik

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US treasuries ended mixed yesterday, with the curve steepening materially amid concerns over the US budget deficit and President Donald Trump’s...

Lucror Analytics

EQD | Introducing the Market Reversal Matrix (MRM): Predict Trend Reversal with Bayesian Models

"Market Reversal Matrix" is a newcomer on Smartkarma's platform. This is the "anchor" insight explaining the methodology and process behind this...

Nico Rosti

Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels But Stay Short-Term Bullish Above 20-DMA

Lockout Rally in Full Swing; Watching Resistance Levels from here to 5910, But Stay Short-Term Bullish if Above 20-DMA and 21-EMAs. Still bullish...

Vermilion Research

Recent market movements post-Liberation Day indicate a potential structural shift in US market dynamics, prompting a re-evaluation of traditional...