Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Asia-Pac Performance: The Indian market bucketed the down trend with the Nifty 50 declining only 0.35% with stable implied volatility. The Nikkei 225, on the other hand,dropped 2.8%. </li>
<li>
US and European Decline: The US market saw the largest decline, with implied volatility rising by 8%. European indices showed mixed results, with the EuroStoxx 50 reacting strongly.</li>
<li>
Gold vs. Bitcoin: Gold (GLD US ETF) proved to be a better store of value, while Bitcoin joined the US indices in higher volatility.</li>
</ul>



Asia-Pac Performance: The Indian market bucketed the down trend with the Nifty 50 declining only 0.35% with stable implied volatility. The Nikkei 225, on the other hand,dropped 2.8%. 

US and European Decline: The US market saw the largest decline, with implied volatility rising by 8%. European indices showed mixed results, with the EuroStoxx 50 reacting strongly.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Gold (GLD US ETF) proved to be a better store of value, while Bitcoin joined the US indices in higher volatility.


Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Policy volatility/uncertainty has generated negative surprises in inflation, especially with core PCE rising 0.3%MoM in Jan'25 and 0.4%MoM in Feb'25, causing the YoY increase of 2.8% in Feb'25.  </li>
<li>M2 growth was only 4.4%YoY in Feb'25, certainly not an inflationary factor.  The 'reciprocal tariffs' (an effective new tariff of 20% across the board) will add 0.4pp to near-term inflation. </li>
<li>10yr-2yr yield curve remains upward sloping (+0.29pp); tariffs are just 1/4th those of Smoot-Hawley, and unlike them will likely result in mutual tariff reductions. The selloff is a buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Policy volatility/uncertainty has generated negative surprises in inflation, especially with core PCE rising 0.3%MoM in Jan'25 and 0.4%MoM in Feb'25, causing the YoY increase of 2.8% in Feb'25.  
M2 growth was only 4.4%YoY in Feb'25, certainly not an inflationary factor.  The 'reciprocal tariffs' (an effective new tariff of 20% across the board) will add 0.4pp to near-term inflation. 
10yr-2yr yield curve remains upward sloping (+0.29pp); tariffs are just 1/4th those of Smoot-Hawley, and unlike them will likely result in mutual tariff reductions. The selloff is a buying opportunity.


US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>All imports into the US will face a minimum 10% tariff (with a few product exceptions). Countries face differential tariffs depending on their own effective protection against US exports. </li>
<li>China exports to US (54% tariff) suffer a near-crippling blow, with Vietnam (46%), Bangladesh (37%), Indonesia &amp; Taiwan (32%) hammered too. India, Korea, Japan, UK to benefit from trade diversion. </li>
<li>There'll be substantial re-shoring of US manufacturing over 2-10 years, boosting the US economy. Inflation will be a near-term problem, but most countries are likely to mutually negotiate tariffs down. </li>
</ul>


All imports into the US will face a minimum 10% tariff (with a few product exceptions). Countries face differential tariffs depending on their own effective protection against US exports. 
China exports to US (54% tariff) suffer a near-crippling blow, with Vietnam (46%), Bangladesh (37%), Indonesia &amp; Taiwan (32%) hammered too. India, Korea, Japan, UK to benefit from trade diversion. 
There'll be substantial re-shoring of US manufacturing over 2-10 years, boosting the US economy. Inflation will be a near-term problem, but most countries are likely to mutually negotiate tariffs down. 


US Reciprocal Tariff Scheme Is Likely to Boost US Manufacturing in Time; Positive

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs caused significant declines across Asia-Pacific markets. Although initial losses were partially recovered during the day, most markets closed substantially lower.</li>
<li>
Impact on South Korea: South Korea faces a 25% tariff. This led to a 1.5% drop in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX).</a> </li>
<li>
Volatility Increase: The Kospi 200 VIX index rose to a high of 28.64 before retreating to 26.05, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.</li>
</ul>



Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs caused significant declines across Asia-Pacific markets. Although initial losses were partially recovered during the day, most markets closed substantially lower.

Impact on South Korea: South Korea faces a 25% tariff. This led to a 1.5% drop in the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX). 

Volatility Increase: The Kospi 200 VIX index rose to a high of 28.64 before retreating to 26.05, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.


KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 Index) Hits 99th Percentile Implied Volatility Amid US Tariff Impact

<ul>
<li>
Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significantly lower market open throughout Asia-Pacific. In the US, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500</a> futures dropped -3.5%, with the VIX spiking to 23.45.</li>
<li>
Impact on Japan: Japan faces a 24% tariff, with specific sectors like automobiles hit with 25%. This led to a 4.5% drop in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, stabilizing at 34,600 (-3.2%).</li>
<li>
Volatility Increase: The Nikkei 225 VIX index jumped from previous levels in the low 20's to rise above 38 before retreating to 32.8, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.</li>
</ul>



Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significantly lower market open throughout Asia-Pacific. In the US, S&amp;P 500 futures dropped -3.5%, with the VIX spiking to 23.45.

Impact on Japan: Japan faces a 24% tariff, with specific sectors like automobiles hit with 25%. This led to a 4.5% drop in the Nikkei 225, stabilizing at 34,600 (-3.2%).

Volatility Increase: The Nikkei 225 VIX index jumped from previous levels in the low 20's to rise above 38 before retreating to 32.8, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.


Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Drops Amid US Tariffs: Implied Volatility Hits Extreme Levels

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

Indian market remains stable amidst Asia-Pac decline, while Japan is the worst performer in the region. US sees largest drop, Gold outperforms...

Gaudenz Schneider

US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Reciprocal Tariff Scheme Is Likely to Boost US Manufacturing in Time; Positive

US imposes 10%-54% 'reciprocal' tariffs, hitting China hard but benefiting UK, Korea, Japan, India. Reshoring of manufacturing to boost US...

Prasenjit K. Basu

KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 Index) Hits 99th Percentile Implied Volatility Amid US Tariff Impact

US reciprocal tariffs announcement caused significant declines in Asia-Pacific markets, impacting South Korea with the KOSPI 200 implied...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Drops Amid US Tariffs: Implied Volatility Hits Extreme Levels

US reciprocal tariffs announcement led to lower market open in Asia-Pacific, with Japan facing a 24% tariff causing a drop in Nikkei 225 and a...

Gaudenz Schneider

Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

​Indian market remains stable amidst Asia-Pac decline, while Japan is the worst performer in the region. US sees largest drop, Gold outperforms...

Gaudenz Schneider

US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

​Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Reciprocal Tariff Scheme Is Likely to Boost US Manufacturing in Time; Positive

​US imposes 10%-54% 'reciprocal' tariffs, hitting China hard but benefiting UK, Korea, Japan, India. Reshoring of manufacturing to boost US...

Prasenjit K. Basu

KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 Index) Hits 99th Percentile Implied Volatility Amid US Tariff Impact

​US reciprocal tariffs announcement caused significant declines in Asia-Pacific markets, impacting South Korea with the KOSPI 200 implied...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Drops Amid US Tariffs: Implied Volatility Hits Extreme Levels

​US reciprocal tariffs announcement led to lower market open in Asia-Pacific, with Japan facing a 24% tariff causing a drop in Nikkei 225 and a...

Gaudenz Schneider

Indian market remains stable amidst Asia-Pac decline, while Japan is the worst performer in the region. US sees largest drop, Gold outperforms...

Policy uncertainty caused inflation spikes, but M2 growth tame at 4.4%YoY. Reciprocal tariffs to increase inflation 0.4pp, but mutual tariff...

US imposes 10%-54% 'reciprocal' tariffs, hitting China hard but benefiting UK, Korea, Japan, India. Reshoring of manufacturing to boost US...

US reciprocal tariffs announcement caused significant declines in Asia-Pacific markets, impacting South Korea with the KOSPI 200 implied...

US reciprocal tariffs announcement led to lower market open in Asia-Pacific, with Japan facing a 24% tariff causing a drop in Nikkei 225 and a...