Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! Equity markets continue their drift higher for yet another week, and it seems safe to say that markets are now more concerned about liquidity/growth than rates to reiterate ourselves, as equity markets have not attributed the U-turn in rates expectations any value whatsoever.</li><li>As the growth and liquidity outlook still looks decent for the weeks/months ahead, we keep our long risk asset bias.</li><li>The rates outlook looks to have a bigger impact in FX and especially the carry-heavy side of this asset class, and with the market likely going to up-hawk expectations even further if inflation picks up momentum, it could be time for a revival of the USD – FX volatility has at least started to pick up a bit of momentum (bullish USD).</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! Equity markets continue their drift higher for yet another week, and it seems safe to say that markets are now more concerned about liquidity/growth than rates to reiterate ourselves, as equity markets have not attributed the U-turn in rates expectations any value whatsoever.As the growth and liquidity outlook still looks decent for the weeks/months ahead, we keep our long risk asset bias.The rates outlook looks to have a bigger impact in FX and especially the carry-heavy side of this asset class, and with the market likely going to up-hawk expectations even further if inflation picks up momentum, it could be time for a revival of the USD – FX volatility has at least started to pick up a bit of momentum (bullish USD).

Positioning Watch – Are the unpopular bets back in town?

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 4.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 0.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 3.0%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.0%).</li><li>Energy Technology (12.7% of the index) was up by 3.9%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (53.5% of the index) was up by 1.4%, ClimateTech Mining was down 0.7% and Advanced Transportation Solutions (27.9% of index) was up 11.2%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: ENG, AMY, TPCS, HYLN, VIEW, XOS, AMYZF, <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">SMR, EVA, PMET,</span></li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 4.3% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 0.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 3.0%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.0%).Energy Technology (12.7% of the index) was up by 3.9%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (53.5% of the index) was up by 1.4%, ClimateTech Mining was down 0.7% and Advanced Transportation Solutions (27.9% of index) was up 11.2%.Top 10 Performers: ENG, AMY, TPCS, HYLN, VIEW, XOS, AMYZF, SMR, EVA, PMET,

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended March 1, 2024

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Understanding the ISM Manufacturing Index has been a tricky affair in recent months. Based on regional PMI data, the ISM (48.7) was anticipated to breach the 50 mark (50.7).</li>
<li>The gap between the current 10-year US Treasury yield and the ISM Manufacturing Index is huge!</li>
<li>In addition, the latest ISM numbers suggest a 26% downside for the S&amp;P 500 Index. Yikes!</li>
</ul>


Understanding the ISM Manufacturing Index has been a tricky affair in recent months. Based on regional PMI data, the ISM (48.7) was anticipated to breach the 50 mark (50.7).
The gap between the current 10-year US Treasury yield and the ISM Manufacturing Index is huge!
In addition, the latest ISM numbers suggest a 26% downside for the S&amp;P 500 Index. Yikes!


ISM Manufacturing – the Ugliest Macro Indicator for Stocks!

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin rose nearly 20% this week, and the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs is huge, but with a twist.</li>
<li>This week's US personal income data provides yet another chart showing that the recession is already behind us. But will the US consumer keep spending?</li>
<li>That new The Economist cover does not bode well for stocks, but the moving average does. Yet, sentiment remains in Frenzy.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin rose nearly 20% this week, and the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs is huge, but with a twist.
This week's US personal income data provides yet another chart showing that the recession is already behind us. But will the US consumer keep spending?
That new The Economist cover does not bode well for stocks, but the moving average does. Yet, sentiment remains in Frenzy.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Please Give a Warm Welcome to BITCOIN

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.</li>
<li>Another week of inflows for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!</li>
</ul>


The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.
The SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.
Another week of inflows for the iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Positioning Watch – Are the unpopular bets back in town?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch!Equity markets continue their drift higher for yet another week, and it seems...

Steno Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended March 1, 2024

The WTR Sustainable Index was up by 4.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 3.0%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.0%).

Water Tower Research

ISM Manufacturing – the Ugliest Macro Indicator for Stocks!

Even though some structural changes can explain part of the lackluster performance of the ISM Manufacturing Index, 26% potential downside should be...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Please Give a Warm Welcome to BITCOIN

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on the week's most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas