Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 18 - August 22.     .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.
</li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">AAPL US</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">GOOG US</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">META US</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>
</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 18 - August 22.     .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.


OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: AAPL US , GOOG US , META US , China Mobile (941 HK) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Nikkei 225


OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) , Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 12 August 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST. 
</li>
<li>
Highlight: Markets are divided between a 0.25% and 0.50% rate cut. Discover my unique take, which differs from both expectations, and the reasoning behind it.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Fixed income and equity derivatives markets are sending conflicting signals. Dive into the historical market impact of each possible scenario to better navigate the uncertainty. </li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 12 August 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST. 


Highlight: Markets are divided between a 0.25% and 0.50% rate cut. Discover my unique take, which differs from both expectations, and the reasoning behind it.

Why Read: Fixed income and equity derivatives markets are sending conflicting signals. Dive into the historical market impact of each possible scenario to better navigate the uncertainty. 


S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 Index) Ahead of 12 Aug RBA Decision: Markets Divided, but I Vote for a 35bps Cut

<ul>
<li>The Australian Earnings Season will begin in early August. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> suffered a minor setback last week, closed the week down but it's already rallying higher.</li>
<li>Our profit target for this rally is 8824 (Q2 resistance target). It could go a bit higher than that but we think it will not reach Q3 resistance at 8996.</li>
<li>If for some reason the index returns below last week's Close, the next support level to watch is 8605 (Q2). </li>
</ul>


The Australian Earnings Season will begin in early August. The S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) suffered a minor setback last week, closed the week down but it's already rallying higher.
Our profit target for this rally is 8824 (Q2 resistance target). It could go a bit higher than that but we think it will not reach Q3 resistance at 8996.
If for some reason the index returns below last week's Close, the next support level to watch is 8605 (Q2). 


S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of Australia's Earnings Season Kickoff

<ul>
<li>As reported by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/gaudenz-schneider" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:66501" rel="noopener">Gaudenz Schneider</a> , the 90-Day pause on country-specific reciprocal tariffs was set to expire on July 9, 2025 and Australia and its Minerals sector might suffer indirectly. </li>
<li>Australia has business with a number of Asian countries, especially China and Japan. Any shock to the growth of other economies in the region could affect the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a>. </li>
<li>This insight will focus on the short-term tactical outlook and possible trend direction for the Australian index for the coming weeks. </li>
</ul>


As reported by Gaudenz Schneider , the 90-Day pause on country-specific reciprocal tariffs was set to expire on July 9, 2025 and Australia and its Minerals sector might suffer indirectly. 
Australia has business with a number of Asian countries, especially China and Japan. Any shock to the growth of other economies in the region could affect the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX. 
This insight will focus on the short-term tactical outlook and possible trend direction for the Australian index for the coming weeks. 


S&P/ASX 200 Outlook Following Proposed Index Rule Review

<ul>
<li>As reported by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar</a>, there are potential methodology changes for the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in sight, read their insights for more details.</li>
<li>If approved, the changes could take effect with the September index review and could bring in signficant reshaping for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>In our previous <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/s-p-asx-200-tactical-outlook-post-index-rebalance-announcement" target="_blank" rel="noopener">insight</a> on June 9th we signaled how the ASX 200 was overbought. The index close last week down. This insight discusses our new forecast and outlook.</li>
</ul>


As reported by Brian Freitas and Janaghan Jeyakumar, there are potential methodology changes for the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices in sight, read their insights for more details.
If approved, the changes could take effect with the September index review and could bring in signficant reshaping for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
In our previous insight on June 9th we signaled how the ASX 200 was overbought. The index close last week down. This insight discusses our new forecast and outlook.


Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22

Global Tactical setups for the week of August 18-22: Many US and Asia/Pacific stocks are overbought but Asia/Pacific stocks can rally higher.

Nico Rosti