Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> has been quietly rallying since its (modest) -11% correction in 2023, mostly unaffected by global turmoils, even the latest sell-off in US, Asia and Europe was "non-damaging".</li>
<li>The index has already recovered a large part of the losses suffered for only 1 week, very brief if we consider that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">SPX INDEX</a> had corrected for 4 weeks.</li>
<li>Now that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> has rallied strongly we want to analyze its pattern model, to identify the area where it could pull back again (or slow down).</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 has been quietly rallying since its (modest) -11% correction in 2023, mostly unaffected by global turmoils, even the latest sell-off in US, Asia and Europe was "non-damaging".
The index has already recovered a large part of the losses suffered for only 1 week, very brief if we consider that the SPX INDEX had corrected for 4 weeks.
Now that the S&amp;P/ASX 200 has rallied strongly we want to analyze its pattern model, to identify the area where it could pull back again (or slow down).


EQD | The ASX200 Can Rally Higher (If This Is A Rally...)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index</a> has reached a specific resistance level that often precedes a short-term pullback, when this pattern is encountered.</li>
<li>The pullback may happen next week, but this week is also a potential candidate since the 2nd week up is usually pretty weak when this pattern is encountered.</li>
<li>Hold your LONG positions and cover them to hedge. Going SHORT is probably best at the end of the week, on Friday, if the week is closing up.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index has reached a specific resistance level that often precedes a short-term pullback, when this pattern is encountered.
The pullback may happen next week, but this week is also a potential candidate since the 2nd week up is usually pretty weak when this pattern is encountered.
Hold your LONG positions and cover them to hedge. Going SHORT is probably best at the end of the week, on Friday, if the week is closing up.


EQD | S&P/ASX200 Pullback In Sight (This Week or the Next)

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

<ul>
<li>Australia's economy is robust and will benefit from long term Asian Growth</li>
<li>Short-Term risks are increasing and ASX200 will not be immune</li>
<li>Hedge longs using short term options to avoid any short-term turbulence</li>
</ul>


Australia's economy is robust and will benefit from long term Asian Growth
Short-Term risks are increasing and ASX200 will not be immune
Hedge longs using short term options to avoid any short-term turbulence


EQD | ASX200(AS51 Index): Fundamentals Strong but Hedge Long with Options Whilst Asian Risks Persist

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Late last evening, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> closed nearly 31% higher at US$5.55/share and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> should follow when the stock opens.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> could move around 40% higher today to catch up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> - that would still leave a 5.4% spread to the offer price.</li>
</ul>


Late last evening, Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) and Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash.

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) closed nearly 31% higher at US$5.55/share and Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) should follow when the stock opens.

Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) could move around 40% higher today to catch up with Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) - that would still leave a 5.4% spread to the offer price.


Rio Tinto Goes All-In for Arcadium Lithium

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">ASX 200 INDEX</a> closed last week down, and this week is barely up, it has been flat for 3 weeks and its direction is unclear.</li>
<li>The index may be preparing for a pullback, even though our models at the moment are not flashing yet the "go SHORT" signal. Covering LONG holdings may be wise.</li>
<li>Wait for prices &gt; 7670 or the end of this week, if the index closes the week up, to increase the probability of success for a SHORT Trade.</li>
</ul>


The ASX 200 INDEX closed last week down, and this week is barely up, it has been flat for 3 weeks and its direction is unclear.
The index may be preparing for a pullback, even though our models at the moment are not flashing yet the "go SHORT" signal. Covering LONG holdings may be wise.
Wait for prices &gt; 7670 or the end of this week, if the index closes the week up, to increase the probability of success for a SHORT Trade.


EQD | S&P/ASX200 Stalled, SHORT Opportunity

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

EQD | The ASX200 Can Rally Higher (If This Is A Rally...)

The ASX 200's uptrend has continued since the end of 2023, resilient to global turmoils, including the latest US/Asia/Europe sell-off. Where are...

Nico Rosti

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Pullback In Sight (This Week or the Next)

The ASX 200 Index is approaching pattern-specific resistance levels, expect a short-term pullback soon. Hold LONG positions, consider hedging, and...

Nico Rosti

EQD | ASX200(AS51 Index): Fundamentals Strong but Hedge Long with Options Whilst Asian Risks Persist

A look at the ASX200 and the potential risks around its Asian driving force. Use of index options to protect a portion of the downside.

Simon Harris

Rio Tinto Goes All-In for Arcadium Lithium

Rio Tinto and Arcadium Lithium have announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash. There were a lot of...

Brian Freitas

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Stalled, SHORT Opportunity

ASX 200 Index has been flat for 3 weeks, direction unclear. Potential pullback ahead, consider covering LONG holdings. Watch for prices > 7670 or...

Nico Rosti

EQD | The ASX200 Can Rally Higher (If This Is A Rally...)

​The ASX 200's uptrend has continued since the end of 2023, resilient to global turmoils, including the latest US/Asia/Europe sell-off. Where are...

Nico Rosti

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Pullback In Sight (This Week or the Next)

​The ASX 200 Index is approaching pattern-specific resistance levels, expect a short-term pullback soon. Hold LONG positions, consider hedging, and...

Nico Rosti

EQD | ASX200(AS51 Index): Fundamentals Strong but Hedge Long with Options Whilst Asian Risks Persist

A look at the ASX200 and the potential risks around its Asian driving force. Use of index options to protect a portion of the downside.

Simon Harris

Rio Tinto Goes All-In for Arcadium Lithium

Rio Tinto and Arcadium Lithium have announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash. There were a lot of...

Brian Freitas

EQD | S&P/ASX200 Stalled, SHORT Opportunity

​ASX 200 Index has been flat for 3 weeks, direction unclear. Potential pullback ahead, consider covering LONG holdings. Watch for prices > 7670 or...

Nico Rosti

The ASX 200's uptrend has continued since the end of 2023, resilient to global turmoils, including the latest US/Asia/Europe sell-off. Where are...

The ASX 200 Index is approaching pattern-specific resistance levels, expect a short-term pullback soon. Hold LONG positions, consider hedging, and...

ASX 200 Index has been flat for 3 weeks, direction unclear. Potential pullback ahead, consider covering LONG holdings. Watch for prices > 7670 or...