Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>SPASX200 gained steadily through the week despite slowing daily momentum, nearly reversing last week’s decline</li>
<li>Market breadth strengthened, with a broad rebound across optionable stocks.</li>
<li>Implied vols declined across most single stocks, bringing the average back toward mid range levels after last week’s elevated readings</li>
</ul>


SPASX200 gained steadily through the week despite slowing daily momentum, nearly reversing last week’s decline
Market breadth strengthened, with a broad rebound across optionable stocks.
Implied vols declined across most single stocks, bringing the average back toward mid range levels after last week’s elevated readings


Australia Single Stock Options (Nov 24– 27): Broad Rebound Pulls Implieds Lower

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>
November 21st marks the close of the review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> December rebalance. Changes will be announced on December 5th. 
</li>
<li>Implementation of changes begins December 19th, read <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a>' recent insight to learn about the 7 possible modifications to the ASX 200.
</li>
<li>Passive tracker flows can significantly move markets around index rebalance dates. In this insight, we leverage our models to identify critical support and resistance zone (the index is very OVERSOLD).</li>
</ul>



November 21st marks the close of the review period for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) December rebalance. Changes will be announced on December 5th. 

Implementation of changes begins December 19th, read Brian Freitas' recent insight to learn about the 7 possible modifications to the ASX 200.

Passive tracker flows can significantly move markets around index rebalance dates. In this insight, we leverage our models to identify critical support and resistance zone (the index is very OVERSOLD).


S&P/ASX 200 Outlook Ahead of Dec25 Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> has stalled since mid-August 2025, possibly a consolidation period after the strong gains delivered since Apri. Or maybe it's about to go down...
</li>
<li>The index started a modest pullback this week, closing at 8926.20 on Wednesday. That price is just below our model Q1 support zone, not oversold yet.</li>
<li>We have identified a key support zone that could be used for buy-the-dip strats, but if the index falls below that support, it may have ended its rally (short-term forecast).</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has stalled since mid-August 2025, possibly a consolidation period after the strong gains delivered since Apri. Or maybe it's about to go down...

The index started a modest pullback this week, closing at 8926.20 on Wednesday. That price is just below our model Q1 support zone, not oversold yet.
We have identified a key support zone that could be used for buy-the-dip strats, but if the index falls below that support, it may have ended its rally (short-term forecast).


S&P/ASX 200 Outlook: Buy the Pullback or Sell?

<ul>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/s-p-asx-200-profit-targets-after-sep-25-rebalance-methodology-finalized" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previously forecasted</a>, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> ended its rally at the end of August/early September.</li>
<li>The index has corrected for the past 3 weeks and is now very oversold according to our models.</li>
<li>In the last 3 days the index has been showing some momentum, this insight will try to target potential profit targets for the next 2-3 weeks.</li>
</ul>


As previously forecasted, the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) ended its rally at the end of August/early September.
The index has corrected for the past 3 weeks and is now very oversold according to our models.
In the last 3 days the index has been showing some momentum, this insight will try to target potential profit targets for the next 2-3 weeks.


S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook: Rally Is Restarting

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 30 September 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST. 
</li>
<li>
Highlights: Consensus is firmly for a hold (96% probability), but surprise cuts have historically doubled the market’s typical daily move. Sector impacts—banks vs. resources—closely examined.</li>
<li>
Why Read: An actionable roadmap to sector sensitivities, highlighting bank and resource ETFs as tactical vehicles if the RBA deviates from expectations.</li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 30 September 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST. 


Highlights: Consensus is firmly for a hold (96% probability), but surprise cuts have historically doubled the market’s typical daily move. Sector impacts—banks vs. resources—closely examined.

Why Read: An actionable roadmap to sector sensitivities, highlighting bank and resource ETFs as tactical vehicles if the RBA deviates from expectations.


RBA Rate Watch: Navigating ASX 200, Banks, and Resources

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

Australia Single Stock Options (Nov 24– 27): Broad Rebound Pulls Implieds Lower

AS51 advanced despite fading daily momentum, while breadth strengthened and implied vols fell across most single stocks and sectors.

John Ley

S&P/ASX 200 Outlook Ahead of Dec25 Index Rebalance

Dec25's ASX 200 rebalance review ends Nov 21, changes announced Dec 5, implementation Dec 20. We've identified price zones where passive tracker...

Nico Rosti

S&P/ASX 200 Outlook: Buy the Pullback or Sell?

The ASX 200's rally has stalled since mid-August, caught between consolidation and potential decline. We map the key support zones where tactical...

Nico Rosti

S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook: Rally Is Restarting

After 3 weeks down the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has restarted its uptrend, last week. Currently in its second week up, not overbought at the...

Nico Rosti

RBA Rate Watch: Navigating ASX 200, Banks, and Resources

30 September 2025 – RBA Rate Decision: Consensus points to a hold, but a surprise cut could shake markets. Key sectors—banks and resources—are...

Gaudenz Schneider