Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Over the past three weeks, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.</li>
<li>Several factors are driving the rally: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/de-grey-mining-northern-star-resources-the-passive-flows" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent passive flow activity</a>, as highlighted by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.</li>
<li>
Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.</li>
</ul>


Over the past three weeks, the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.
Several factors are driving the rally: recent passive flow activity, as highlighted by Brian Freitas but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.

Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.


ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significant declines in S&amp;P 500 (-3.5%) and Nasdaq-100 (-4.4%) futures, with the VIX spiking from 20.00 to 23.45.</li>
<li>
Impact on Australia: Australia faces a 10% tariff, with the overall economic impact expected to be limited.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> Response: The S&amp;P/ASX 200 dropped 2.1% in early trading, with its VIX index rising from 13.20 to 15.43. These are historically high but not extreme levels.</li>
</ul>



Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significant declines in S&amp;P 500 (-3.5%) and Nasdaq-100 (-4.4%) futures, with the VIX spiking from 20.00 to 23.45.

Impact on Australia: Australia faces a 10% tariff, with the overall economic impact expected to be limited.

S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) Response: The S&amp;P/ASX 200 dropped 2.1% in early trading, with its VIX index rising from 13.20 to 15.43. These are historically high but not extreme levels.


S&P/ASX 200 Volatility Rises: Market Down Amid US Tariffs and S&P 500 Futures Plunge

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> has suffered a continuous sell-off for the past 3 weeks. The index is deeply oversold, our model predicts an imminent reversal.</li>
<li>The reversal could lift the index to the 8091-8208 price area, but the index may start to fall again after that.</li>
<li>As posted by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> there has been 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> (index rebalance), read his insight for further details on this.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has suffered a continuous sell-off for the past 3 weeks. The index is deeply oversold, our model predicts an imminent reversal.
The reversal could lift the index to the 8091-8208 price area, but the index may start to fall again after that.
As posted by Brian Freitas there has been 7 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (index rebalance), read his insight for further details on this.


<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its Monetary Policy on 18 February. The current RBA rate stands at 4.35% with no change since 2024. </li>
<li>The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut. Options expiring on 20 February provide an instrument to trade this event. </li>
<li>Option pricing is in-line with historical <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> moves on days after expected rate changes. Contrarians expecting no change might find value in put options.</li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its Monetary Policy on 18 February. The current RBA rate stands at 4.35% with no change since 2024. 
The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut. Options expiring on 20 February provide an instrument to trade this event. 
Option pricing is in-line with historical S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) moves on days after expected rate changes. Contrarians expecting no change might find value in put options.


Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) - RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>December seasonals across major markets show a generally positive profile, but the path is uneven, with most gains clustering in the final days of the month.</li>
<li>Several markets offer appealing vol selling setups, particularly those with consistently positive December vol premiums and elevated implied levels relative to past outcomes.</li>
<li>Nifty vol appears attractively priced, but its tendency not to monetize in December requires traders to think differently about how they extract value.</li>
</ul>


December seasonals across major markets show a generally positive profile, but the path is uneven, with most gains clustering in the final days of the month.
Several markets offer appealing vol selling setups, particularly those with consistently positive December vol premiums and elevated implied levels relative to past outcomes.
Nifty vol appears attractively priced, but its tendency not to monetize in December requires traders to think differently about how they extract value.


Macro Monthly (December): Seasonal Strength, Vol Selling Edges and a Notable Nifty Setup

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

The S&P/ASX 200 has rebounded strongly in the past three weeks, driven by passive flow activity and sector strength, but our models indicate it is...

Nico Rosti

S&P/ASX 200 Volatility Rises: Market Down Amid US Tariffs and S&P 500 Futures Plunge

S&P/ASX 200 drops 2.1% in early trading, while volatility increases from 13.2% to above 15.0%. Implied volatility is elevated, but not extreme by a...

Gaudenz Schneider

S&P/ASX 200 Index Outlook Post-Rebalance

The recently rebalanced ASX 200 index is in oversold territory. Our model predicts an imminent reversal and relief rally to the 8091-8208 range,...

Nico Rosti

Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) - RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?

The RBA is expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut on 18 February, with options providing a trading opportunity for contrarians who believe there...

Gaudenz Schneider

Macro Monthly (December): Seasonal Strength, Vol Selling Edges and a Notable Nifty Setup

December’s uneven but historically positive pattern sets the backdrop, with several markets offering strong vol selling edges and Nifty presenting...

John Ley

ASX200 (AS51 INDEX) Outlook: Rallying Out of a Bear Market Amid Passive Flows And Sector Strength

​The S&P/ASX 200 has rebounded strongly in the past three weeks, driven by passive flow activity and sector strength, but our models indicate it is...

Nico Rosti

S&P/ASX 200 Volatility Rises: Market Down Amid US Tariffs and S&P 500 Futures Plunge

S&P/ASX 200 drops 2.1% in early trading, while volatility increases from 13.2% to above 15.0%. Implied volatility is elevated, but not extreme by a...

Gaudenz Schneider

S&P/ASX 200 Index Outlook Post-Rebalance

The recently rebalanced ASX 200 index is in oversold territory. Our model predicts an imminent reversal and relief rally to the 8091-8208 range,...

Nico Rosti

Eqd | S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) - RBA Decision: Will the Anticipated Rate Cut Drive the Market?

​The RBA is expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut on 18 February, with options providing a trading opportunity for contrarians who believe there...

Gaudenz Schneider

Macro Monthly (December): Seasonal Strength, Vol Selling Edges and a Notable Nifty Setup

December’s uneven but historically positive pattern sets the backdrop, with several markets offering strong vol selling edges and Nifty presenting...

John Ley

The S&P/ASX 200 has rebounded strongly in the past three weeks, driven by passive flow activity and sector strength, but our models indicate it is...

The RBA is expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut on 18 February, with options providing a trading opportunity for contrarians who believe there...