Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>April Australian labour data (due Thursday 21st of May) is expected to show unemployment steady at 4.3%, though holiday-related distortions and geopolitical risk may reduce signal reliability. </li>
<li>In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asx200-tactical-outlook-ahead-of-april-21-adhoc-index-rebalance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">April 16 insight</a>, we wrote that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> had topped. The index declined nearly 5% from that point, now we are at a crucial juncture. </li>
<li>Any upside or downside surprise in the labour data could act as a near-term volatility trigger. This insight outlines our model's key support/resistance levels, profit targets, and the trend outlook.</li>
</ul>


April Australian labour data (due Thursday 21st of May) is expected to show unemployment steady at 4.3%, though holiday-related distortions and geopolitical risk may reduce signal reliability. 
In our April 16 insight, we wrote that the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) had topped. The index declined nearly 5% from that point, now we are at a crucial juncture. 
Any upside or downside surprise in the labour data could act as a near-term volatility trigger. This insight outlines our model's key support/resistance levels, profit targets, and the trend outlook.


ASX200 Index Tactical Outlook Ahead of Australia’s Unemployment Data

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> will see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a> deleted and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a> added on 21 April. Passive trackers moves ongoing, as reported by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> </li>
<li>Our model flagged the ASX200 as 'overbought': up 3 weeks, and overextended, well into the "outliers" price targets zone. We think the index has topped.
</li>
<li>Downside targets are discussed in the insight, our model sees a bullish buy-the-dip pattern, a brief 1-2 weeks correction followed by higher prices.</li>
</ul>



S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) will see National Storage REIT (NSR AU) deleted and Alkane Resources (ALK AU) added on 21 April. Passive trackers moves ongoing, as reported by Brian Freitas 
Our model flagged the ASX200 as 'overbought': up 3 weeks, and overextended, well into the "outliers" price targets zone. We think the index has topped.

Downside targets are discussed in the insight, our model sees a bullish buy-the-dip pattern, a brief 1-2 weeks correction followed by higher prices.


ASX200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of April 21 Adhoc Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
Alpha Sources: Taiwan (+2.6 Short IR) and Australia (+2.7) remain dominant. Korea (+1.9) shows tentative stabilization after last week's dip.</li>
<li>
Sector Warning: Zero positive IR across all sectors in both windows. Alpha generation is purely a country-selection story — sector rotation offers no edge.</li>
<li>
Tactical: Overweight Taiwan/Australia on sustained decay; underweight India (Long/Short IR: −2.1/−1.9). Tech/Semis breakdown (−1.2 Short IR) confirmed for second consecutive week. </li>
</ul>



Alpha Sources: Taiwan (+2.6 Short IR) and Australia (+2.7) remain dominant. Korea (+1.9) shows tentative stabilization after last week's dip.

Sector Warning: Zero positive IR across all sectors in both windows. Alpha generation is purely a country-selection story — sector rotation offers no edge.

Tactical: Overweight Taiwan/Australia on sustained decay; underweight India (Long/Short IR: −2.1/−1.9). Tech/Semis breakdown (−1.2 Short IR) confirmed for second consecutive week. 


Pan-Asia Radar: What's Outperforming MSCI AC Asia Ex-JP (AAXJ US), What's Crowding | Apr 13–Apr 17

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> reached quite oversold levels, closing the week at 8851. According to our model is very oversold.</li>
<li>What many wonders is if this sell-off is going to be short-lived, or maybe the war in Iran may suddenly look about to end this coming week.</li>
<li>Our analysis can only evaluate how deeply oversold the index is, keeping in mind that although the model includes all wars and crisis of the past, a crash is possible.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) reached quite oversold levels, closing the week at 8851. According to our model is very oversold.
What many wonders is if this sell-off is going to be short-lived, or maybe the war in Iran may suddenly look about to end this coming week.
Our analysis can only evaluate how deeply oversold the index is, keeping in mind that although the model includes all wars and crisis of the past, a crash is possible.


S&P/ASX 200 Outlook - Iran War Update: Very Oversold, Can It Bounce This Coming Week?

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>AS51 pushes to fresh highs with relative performance between AS51 and SPX shifting away from the U.S.</li>
<li>Market breadth remains mixed despite index gains, highlighting both 2-economy and low correlation themes.</li>
<li>Low constituent correlation continues to define AS51, reinforcing a highly selective market backdrop.</li>
</ul>


AS51 pushes to fresh highs with relative performance between AS51 and SPX shifting away from the U.S.
Market breadth remains mixed despite index gains, highlighting both 2-economy and low correlation themes.
Low constituent correlation continues to define AS51, reinforcing a highly selective market backdrop.


Australia Single Stock Options (Feb 23–27): Relative Rebound Takes Hold in a Low Correlation Market

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

ASX200 Index Tactical Outlook Ahead of Australia’s Unemployment Data

ASX 200 vol targets derived from our model are mapped to Australia’s April jobs data (Thu 21): consensus expects unemployment steady at 4.3%, but...

Nico Rosti

ASX200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of April 21 Adhoc Index Rebalance

The ASX 200 index is OVERBOUGHT according to our model (and likely topped). Upcoming April 21 rebalance passive trackers moves are ongoing....

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Radar: What's Outperforming MSCI AC Asia Ex-JP (AAXJ US), What's Crowding | Apr 13–Apr 17

Pan-Asia Radar: weekly snapshot - risk-adjusted excess returns across Asian markets/sectors vs iShares MSCI AC Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ). Updated...

Nico Rosti

S&P/ASX 200 Outlook - Iran War Update: Very Oversold, Can It Bounce This Coming Week?

The S&P/ASX 200 index is very oversold at 8851, but investors want to know whether the sell-off will be short-lived. Our model says 2 more weeks...

Nico Rosti

Australia Single Stock Options (Feb 23–27): Relative Rebound Takes Hold in a Low Correlation Market

As AS51 breaks higher, underlying breadth and correlation trends suggest a market driven more by dispersion than broad-based momentum.

John Ley

ASX200 Index Tactical Outlook Ahead of Australia’s Unemployment Data

ASX 200 vol targets derived from our model are mapped to Australia’s April jobs data (Thu 21): consensus expects unemployment steady at 4.3%, but...

Nico Rosti

ASX200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of April 21 Adhoc Index Rebalance

​The ASX 200 index is OVERBOUGHT according to our model (and likely topped). Upcoming April 21 rebalance passive trackers moves are ongoing....

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Radar: What's Outperforming MSCI AC Asia Ex-JP (AAXJ US), What's Crowding | Apr 13–Apr 17

Pan-Asia Radar: weekly snapshot - risk-adjusted excess returns across Asian markets/sectors vs iShares MSCI AC Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ). Updated...

Nico Rosti

S&P/ASX 200 Outlook - Iran War Update: Very Oversold, Can It Bounce This Coming Week?

​The S&P/ASX 200 index is very oversold at 8851, but investors want to know whether the sell-off will be short-lived. Our model says 2 more weeks...

Nico Rosti

Australia Single Stock Options (Feb 23–27): Relative Rebound Takes Hold in a Low Correlation Market

As AS51 breaks higher, underlying breadth and correlation trends suggest a market driven more by dispersion than broad-based momentum.

John Ley

The ASX 200 index is OVERBOUGHT according to our model (and likely topped). Upcoming April 21 rebalance passive trackers moves are ongoing....

The S&P/ASX 200 index is very oversold at 8851, but investors want to know whether the sell-off will be short-lived. Our model says 2 more weeks...