Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/s-p-asx-200-profit-targets-after-sep-25-rebalance-methodology-finalized" target="_blank" rel="noopener">latest ASX200 insight, posted on Aug 22nd</a>, we wrote: "The index could rally one more week (next week), that should be the end of this rally". </li>
<li>
The rally ended last week, as predicted: the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> is falling this week,  it has already reached OVERSOLD support levels according to our model.</li>
<li>
Attached you can find an Excel file with all the data (key supp/res level with probabilities, check row # 12), our new forecast in detailed in the insight.</li>
</ul>


In our latest ASX200 insight, posted on Aug 22nd, we wrote: "The index could rally one more week (next week), that should be the end of this rally". 

The rally ended last week, as predicted: the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) is falling this week,  it has already reached OVERSOLD support levels according to our model.

Attached you can find an Excel file with all the data (key supp/res level with probabilities, check row # 12), our new forecast in detailed in the insight.


S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As reported by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> , 2 days ago S&amp;P DJI confirmed that the proposals in the market consultation will be implemented at the September 25 rebalance. Details <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/s-p-asx-index-rebalance-preview-sep-25-potential-changes-if-methodology-is-updated" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> is currently OVERBOUGHT according to our models: the index reached an 83% probability of reversal at the intraweek high (9025). Incoming pullback.</li>
<li>
The index could rally one more week (next week), that should be the end of this rally (short-term forecast), but could also pull back this week, checkour modelkey-supports.</li>
</ul>


As reported by Brian Freitas , 2 days ago S&amp;P DJI confirmed that the proposals in the market consultation will be implemented at the September 25 rebalance. Details here.
The S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) is currently OVERBOUGHT according to our models: the index reached an 83% probability of reversal at the intraweek high (9025). Incoming pullback.

The index could rally one more week (next week), that should be the end of this rally (short-term forecast), but could also pull back this week, checkour modelkey-supports.


S&P/ASX 200: Profit Targets After Sep-25 Rebalance Methodology Finalized

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 18 - August 22.     .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.
</li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">AAPL US</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">GOOG US</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">META US</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>
</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 18 - August 22.     .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.


OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: AAPL US , GOOG US , META US , China Mobile (941 HK) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Nikkei 225


OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) , Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 12 August 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST. 
</li>
<li>
Highlight: Markets are divided between a 0.25% and 0.50% rate cut. Discover my unique take, which differs from both expectations, and the reasoning behind it.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Fixed income and equity derivatives markets are sending conflicting signals. Dive into the historical market impact of each possible scenario to better navigate the uncertainty. </li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 12 August 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST. 


Highlight: Markets are divided between a 0.25% and 0.50% rate cut. Discover my unique take, which differs from both expectations, and the reasoning behind it.

Why Read: Fixed income and equity derivatives markets are sending conflicting signals. Dive into the historical market impact of each possible scenario to better navigate the uncertainty. 


S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 Index) Ahead of 12 Aug RBA Decision: Markets Divided, but I Vote for a 35bps Cut

<ul>
<li>The Australian Earnings Season will begin in early August. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> suffered a minor setback last week, closed the week down but it's already rallying higher.</li>
<li>Our profit target for this rally is 8824 (Q2 resistance target). It could go a bit higher than that but we think it will not reach Q3 resistance at 8996.</li>
<li>If for some reason the index returns below last week's Close, the next support level to watch is 8605 (Q2). </li>
</ul>


The Australian Earnings Season will begin in early August. The S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) suffered a minor setback last week, closed the week down but it's already rallying higher.
Our profit target for this rally is 8824 (Q2 resistance target). It could go a bit higher than that but we think it will not reach Q3 resistance at 8996.
If for some reason the index returns below last week's Close, the next support level to watch is 8605 (Q2). 


S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of Australia's Earnings Season Kickoff

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Ahead of Sep-25 Rebalance

As predicted on Aug 22, the ASX200 rally ended last Friday: index falling this week, already reached our model's oversold support levels. Read new...

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S&P/ASX 200: Profit Targets After Sep-25 Rebalance Methodology Finalized

S&P DJI confirmed proposals for ASX 200 rebalance on Sept 25, the index is currently overbought according to our models. Next week: pullback, or...

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Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22

Global Tactical setups for the week of August 18-22: Many US and Asia/Pacific stocks are overbought but Asia/Pacific stocks can rally higher.

Nico Rosti