Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The US post-election rally lifted markets which run a trade deficit with the US alongside US markets. In that period, volatility decreased in all markets, regardless of performance.</li>
<li>Market Specific commentary and option opportunities for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 (NDX INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX),</a> and more.</li>
<li>Volatility analytics plus upcoming events and market holidays to the end of January as reference data.</li>
</ul>


The US post-election rally lifted markets which run a trade deficit with the US alongside US markets. In that period, volatility decreased in all markets, regardless of performance.
Market Specific commentary and option opportunities for NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX), S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX), Nasdaq-100 (NDX INDEX), S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX), and more.
Volatility analytics plus upcoming events and market holidays to the end of January as reference data.


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Opportunities in Nifty 50, Nasdaq, ASX 200, FTSE 100, SMI

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digico-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44091:1" rel="noopener">DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU)</a> is looking to raise nearly A$2bn in its IPO by selling 399.1m shares at A$5/share. Stock is expected to list on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asx-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:552:1" rel="noopener">ASX</a> on 12 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hmc-capital" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29082:1" rel="noopener">HMC Capital (HMC AU)</a> will own 18.2% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digico-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44091:1" rel="noopener">DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU)</a> after the IPO while IPO investors will own 72.5% of the company.</li>
<li>Subject to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digico-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44091:1" rel="noopener">DigiCo REIT</a> being an eligible stapled security, we expect the stock to be included in global and local indices between March and June mopping up 11.7% of float.</li>
</ul>



DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) is looking to raise nearly A$2bn in its IPO by selling 399.1m shares at A$5/share. Stock is expected to list on the ASX on 12 December.

HMC Capital (HMC AU) will own 18.2% of DigiCo REIT (DIGICO AU) after the IPO while IPO investors will own 72.5% of the company.
Subject to DigiCo REIT being an eligible stapled security, we expect the stock to be included in global and local indices between March and June mopping up 11.7% of float.


DigiCo REIT (DGT AU) IPO: Offering Details & Index Implications

<ul>
<li>The ACCC has approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>'s transformational merger with Chemist Warehouse. There are still other regulatory approvals pending.</li>
<li>The surge in the stock price could lead to the inclusion of MergeCo in one more index, further increasing the flow in the stock and the impact of passive buying.</li>
<li>Passive trackers are now estimated to buy a total of 938m shares (A$2.25bn; 103x ADV) in MergeCo. The buy flow could take place between January and March.</li>
</ul>


The ACCC has approved Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)'s transformational merger with Chemist Warehouse. There are still other regulatory approvals pending.
The surge in the stock price could lead to the inclusion of MergeCo in one more index, further increasing the flow in the stock and the impact of passive buying.
Passive trackers are now estimated to buy a total of 938m shares (A$2.25bn; 103x ADV) in MergeCo. The buy flow could take place between January and March.


Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)/ Chemist Warehouse Merger: Updated Flow; ACCC Approval; Stock Surge

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>Both deletes are also deletions from a global index next week and there could be short-term buying/covering opportunities on a drop in the stock price.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup of cumulative excess volume in all stocks over the last few months. There has been no increase in positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/car-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:701:1" rel="noopener">CAR Group (CAR AU)</a> recently.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
Both deletes are also deletions from a global index next week and there could be short-term buying/covering opportunities on a drop in the stock price.
There has been a buildup of cumulative excess volume in all stocks over the last few months. There has been no increase in positioning in CAR Group (CAR AU) recently.


S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Dexus and Spark NZ with Double Deletions

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Observing implied volatility across 16 markets plus gold provides a picture of falling implied volatility, despite dispersion in market performance.</li>
<li>Several, but not all, markets display moderation from unusual volatility levels to a more balanced implied volatility structure.</li>
<li>The realignment of implied volatility across markets presents potential relative value opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Observing implied volatility across 16 markets plus gold provides a picture of falling implied volatility, despite dispersion in market performance.
Several, but not all, markets display moderation from unusual volatility levels to a more balanced implied volatility structure.
The realignment of implied volatility across markets presents potential relative value opportunities.


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – Consistently Declining Volatility Amid Mixed Markets

Australia

The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. Representative liquid and tradable, it is widely considered Australia's preeminent benchmark index. The index is float-adjusted. The index was launched in April 2000.

S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Opportunities in Nifty 50, Nasdaq, ASX 200, FTSE 100, SMI

US post-election rally lowers implied volatility across all markets. Specific commentary on NIFTY, S&P/ASX 200, Nikkei 225, Nasdaq-100, S&P 500....

Gaudenz Schneider

DigiCo REIT (DGT AU) IPO: Offering Details & Index Implications

DigiCo REIT is looking to raise nearly A$2bn in its IPO by selling 399.1m shares at A$5/share. Stock is expected to list on the ASX on 12 December....

Brian Freitas

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)/ Chemist Warehouse Merger: Updated Flow; ACCC Approval; Stock Surge

Sigma Healthcare continue to trade higher post ACCC approval of its proposed merger with Chemist Warehouse. There are still some approvals pending...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Dexus and Spark NZ with Double Deletions

CAR Group could replace Dexus in the ASX50, and Clarity Pharma could replace Spark NZ in the ASX200. Dexus and Spark NZ are also deletes from a...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – Consistently Declining Volatility Amid Mixed Markets

Despite varying market performances, implied volatility is generally decreasing across 16 equity markets and gold. The realignment might offer...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility - Opportunities in Nifty 50, Nasdaq, ASX 200, FTSE 100, SMI

​US post-election rally lowers implied volatility across all markets. Specific commentary on NIFTY, S&P/ASX 200, Nikkei 225, Nasdaq-100, S&P 500....

Gaudenz Schneider

DigiCo REIT (DGT AU) IPO: Offering Details & Index Implications

DigiCo REIT is looking to raise nearly A$2bn in its IPO by selling 399.1m shares at A$5/share. Stock is expected to list on the ASX on 12 December....

Brian Freitas

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)/ Chemist Warehouse Merger: Updated Flow; ACCC Approval; Stock Surge

Sigma Healthcare continue to trade higher post ACCC approval of its proposed merger with Chemist Warehouse. There are still some approvals pending...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Dexus and Spark NZ with Double Deletions

CAR Group could replace Dexus in the ASX50, and Clarity Pharma could replace Spark NZ in the ASX200. Dexus and Spark NZ are also deletes from a...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – Consistently Declining Volatility Amid Mixed Markets

​Despite varying market performances, implied volatility is generally decreasing across 16 equity markets and gold. The realignment might offer...

Gaudenz Schneider

US post-election rally lowers implied volatility across all markets. Specific commentary on NIFTY, S&P/ASX 200, Nikkei 225, Nasdaq-100, S&P 500....

Despite varying market performances, implied volatility is generally decreasing across 16 equity markets and gold. The realignment might offer...