Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ather-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43903:1" rel="noopener">Ather Energy</a> is looking to raise INR 30bn (US$349m) in its IPO, valuing the company at INR 120bn (US$1.4bn). The company appears to be expensive compared to peers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ather-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43903:1" rel="noopener">Ather Energy</a> could be added to one global smallcap index in August/November and to another in December/March. Small Cap classification for AMFI and no major local index inclusion.</li>
<li>The continued selloff in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric</a> will give investors pause, especially given <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ather-energy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43903:1" rel="noopener">Ather Energy</a>'s stagnant market share and continued losses. There is supply in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric</a> with PE/VC investors selling. </li>
</ul>



Ather Energy is looking to raise INR 30bn (US$349m) in its IPO, valuing the company at INR 120bn (US$1.4bn). The company appears to be expensive compared to peers.

Ather Energy could be added to one global smallcap index in August/November and to another in December/March. Small Cap classification for AMFI and no major local index inclusion.
The continued selloff in Ola Electric will give investors pause, especially given Ather Energy's stagnant market share and continued losses. There is supply in Ola Electric with PE/VC investors selling. 


Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a>, now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.</li>
<li>Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.</li>
<li>The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.</li>
</ul>



Zomato (ZOMATO IN), now Eternal, listed in July 2021 with a Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL) of 100%. Since listing, foreign ownership has dropped from over 70% to just under 45%.
Eternal is looking to cap foreign ownership at 49.5% to continue qualifying as an Indian-Owned-and-Controlled Company. That will give the company greater operational flexibility, especially for inventory ownership.
The FOL decrease will result in selling from passive global index trackers. With the stock 23.5% off its highs and a steady increase in futures open interest, covering could ensue.


Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>India's exports (merchandise+invisible) topped US$1trn in 2024, up over 36-fold in 33 years. This has been crucial to bolstering the economy, and is likely to strengthen as Chinese exports recede. </li>
<li>CAD likely moderated to 0.7% of GDP in FY25, and will shrink further in FY26, helped by lower oil prices and broad-based export recovery, as oil-refinery shutdowns end. </li>
<li>Fiscal deficit was 4.4% of GDP in the 12months to Feb'25 (below official estimate of 4.8%). With tax revenue strong, the FY26 fiscal deficit should shrink to 4% of GDP.  </li>
</ul>


India's exports (merchandise+invisible) topped US$1trn in 2024, up over 36-fold in 33 years. This has been crucial to bolstering the economy, and is likely to strengthen as Chinese exports recede. 
CAD likely moderated to 0.7% of GDP in FY25, and will shrink further in FY26, helped by lower oil prices and broad-based export recovery, as oil-refinery shutdowns end. 
Fiscal deficit was 4.4% of GDP in the 12months to Feb'25 (below official estimate of 4.8%). With tax revenue strong, the FY26 fiscal deficit should shrink to 4% of GDP.  


India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 25bp for the second consecutive time, and shifted from a neutral to an accommodative monetary stance. </li>
<li>With inflation likely to moderate sharply to 3%YoY in FY26, we expect another 100bp of rate cuts by Dec'25, taking the repo rate down to 5% in Dec/25. </li>
<li>Real GDP growth averaged 8.2% in FY22-FY25. Lower income tax and interest rates are set to bolster PCE and investment, enabling real GDP growth to rebound to 8% in FY26. </li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 25bp for the second consecutive time, and shifted from a neutral to an accommodative monetary stance. 
With inflation likely to moderate sharply to 3%YoY in FY26, we expect another 100bp of rate cuts by Dec'25, taking the repo rate down to 5% in Dec/25. 
Real GDP growth averaged 8.2% in FY22-FY25. Lower income tax and interest rates are set to bolster PCE and investment, enabling real GDP growth to rebound to 8% in FY26. 


India: RBI Turns Accommodative; Expect Another 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec'25

India

The S&P BSE Sensex Index is a cap-weighted index. The index members have been selected on the basis of liquidity, depth, and floating-stock-adjustment depth and industry representation. Sensex has a base date and value of 100 in 1978-1979. The Index shifted to free-float methodology since 09/01/03. Please see {SNSXOLD Index <GO>} for mid-month options.

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion

Ather Energy is looking to raise US$349m valuing the company at US$1.4bn. No near-term index inclusion expected. The continued selloff in Ola...

Brian Freitas

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

Lowering the FOL from 100% to 49.5% will result in big passive selling. That could be offset by foreign buying in the short-term and covering via...

Brian Freitas

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%

India's total exports hit $1trn in 2024, despite declining refined-oil exports. CAD to shrink to 0.1% of GDP in FY26 and fiscal deficit to 4% of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Turns Accommodative; Expect Another 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec'25

RBI cuts policy rate 25bp, shifts to accommodative stance. We expect sharp moderation in inflation to 3% in FY26, and 100bp rate cuts by Dec'25 to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion

Ather Energy is looking to raise US$349m valuing the company at US$1.4bn. No near-term index inclusion expected. The continued selloff in Ola...

Brian Freitas

Zomato/Eternal: Lower Foreign Ownership Limits & The BIG Passive Selling

Lowering the FOL from 100% to 49.5% will result in big passive selling. That could be offset by foreign buying in the short-term and covering via...

Brian Freitas

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%

​India's total exports hit $1trn in 2024, despite declining refined-oil exports. CAD to shrink to 0.1% of GDP in FY26 and fiscal deficit to 4% of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI Turns Accommodative; Expect Another 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec'25

​RBI cuts policy rate 25bp, shifts to accommodative stance. We expect sharp moderation in inflation to 3% in FY26, and 100bp rate cuts by Dec'25 to...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India's total exports hit $1trn in 2024, despite declining refined-oil exports. CAD to shrink to 0.1% of GDP in FY26 and fiscal deficit to 4% of...

RBI cuts policy rate 25bp, shifts to accommodative stance. We expect sharp moderation in inflation to 3% in FY26, and 100bp rate cuts by Dec'25 to...