Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the completion of 60% of the review period, there could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>With one stock right at the cusp of deletion from the index, there could be a third change too. Sector balance will be used to decide the list of inclusions.</li>
<li>The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes in the back end of 2024 but there has been huge underperformance this calendar year as stocks with nosebleed valuations have sold off.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the completion of 60% of the review period, there could be two changes for the BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the June rebalance.
With one stock right at the cusp of deletion from the index, there could be a third change too. Sector balance will be used to decide the list of inclusions.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes in the back end of 2024 but there has been huge underperformance this calendar year as stocks with nosebleed valuations have sold off.


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes for Now; Third Change at the Cusp

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets</li>
<li>Weakness in HK/China markets in Q1 as President Trump takes office will provide an opportunity</li>
<li>China continues to incrementally promote consumption as the new lever of growth</li>
</ul>


Risk reward favours this shift in allocation between these markets
Weakness in HK/China markets in Q1 as President Trump takes office will provide an opportunity
China continues to incrementally promote consumption as the new lever of growth


2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into HK/China Part 2

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>China listed HK shares continue to lead the pack in Asia</li>
<li>India's rate cuts, tax cuts and election wins are not supporting the market</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
China listed HK shares continue to lead the pack in Asia
India's rate cuts, tax cuts and election wins are not supporting the market


Overview #15 – Who's Afraid of the USD?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jan-Mar'25, but a 15.7%MoM decline in vegetable prices in Jan'25 enabled headline CPI inflation to ease to 4.3%YoY. </li>
<li>Our forecast of 4.1%YoY inflation for Jan-Mar'25 remains on track. With food inflation set to recede, we expect CPI inflation below 4%YoY in Apr-Sep'25, enabling 75bp of further rate cuts. </li>
<li>If the SW Monsoon in Jun-Sep'25 is normal or better, another 25bp rate cut is likely in Dec'25, taking the repo rate to 5.25% by the end of 2025. </li>
</ul>


The RBI forecast 4.4%YoY inflation in Jan-Mar'25, but a 15.7%MoM decline in vegetable prices in Jan'25 enabled headline CPI inflation to ease to 4.3%YoY. 
Our forecast of 4.1%YoY inflation for Jan-Mar'25 remains on track. With food inflation set to recede, we expect CPI inflation below 4%YoY in Apr-Sep'25, enabling 75bp of further rate cuts. 
If the SW Monsoon in Jun-Sep'25 is normal or better, another 25bp rate cut is likely in Dec'25, taking the repo rate to 5.25% by the end of 2025. 


India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan'25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts

<ul>
<li>RBI cut its policy rate by 25bp on 7th Feb'25. With inflation set to moderate substantially over the rest of CY25, we expect another 75bp of rate cuts by Aug'25. </li>
<li>Delhi election results on 8th Feb'25 saw resounding BJP victory after 27 years. Urban governance, a major focus of Budget'25, will be bolstered in Delhi and Mumbai, India's largest cities. </li>
<li>With the policy rate at 5.5% by Aug'25, and substantial income tax cuts boosting PCE, real GDP should return to 8% growth in FY26 (Apr'25-Mar'26). EPS growth will benefit too. </li>
</ul>


RBI cut its policy rate by 25bp on 7th Feb'25. With inflation set to moderate substantially over the rest of CY25, we expect another 75bp of rate cuts by Aug'25. 
Delhi election results on 8th Feb'25 saw resounding BJP victory after 27 years. Urban governance, a major focus of Budget'25, will be bolstered in Delhi and Mumbai, India's largest cities. 
With the policy rate at 5.5% by Aug'25, and substantial income tax cuts boosting PCE, real GDP should return to 8% growth in FY26 (Apr'25-Mar'26). EPS growth will benefit too. 


India: RBI to Cut 75bp More, and BJP Delhi Win to Spur 8% RGDP Growth Post Tax Cuts

India

The S&P BSE Sensex Index is a cap-weighted index. The index members have been selected on the basis of liquidity, depth, and floating-stock-adjustment depth and industry representation. Sensex has a base date and value of 100 in 1978-1979. The Index shifted to free-float methodology since 09/01/03. Please see {SNSXOLD Index <GO>} for mid-month options.

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes for Now; Third Change at the Cusp

We forecast 2 changes for the Sensex in June, but there could be a third. Passives need to trade 7-19x delivery volume. The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into HK/China Part 2

With the HSI (22,700)and the HSTech index (5,500) hitting resistance levels, we would sell SOME here. We will likely go higher but may not go...

Rikki Malik

Overview #15 – Who's Afraid of the USD?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We takea quick tour around China, India and Japan

Rikki Malik

India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan'25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts

Jan'25 inflation in line with our forecast but already lower than RBI forecast for Jan-Mar'25 quarter. We expect up to 100bp of further rate cuts...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI to Cut 75bp More, and BJP Delhi Win to Spur 8% RGDP Growth Post Tax Cuts

RBI's 25bp cut likely to be followed by 75bp more by Aug'25 as inflation recedes. Delhi election to boost urban governance, and income tax cuts...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes for Now; Third Change at the Cusp

We forecast 2 changes for the Sensex in June, but there could be a third. Passives need to trade 7-19x delivery volume. The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas

2025 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of India into HK/China Part 2

With the HSI (22,700)and the HSTech index (5,500) hitting resistance levels, we would sell SOME here. We will likely go higher but may not go...

Rikki Malik

Overview #15 – Who's Afraid of the USD?

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We takea quick tour around China, India and Japan

Rikki Malik

India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan'25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts

Jan'25 inflation in line with our forecast but already lower than ​RBI forecast for Jan-Mar'25 quarter. We expect up to 100bp of further rate cuts...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India: RBI to Cut 75bp More, and BJP Delhi Win to Spur 8% RGDP Growth Post Tax Cuts

​RBI's 25bp cut likely to be followed by 75bp more by Aug'25 as inflation recedes. Delhi election to boost urban governance, and income tax cuts...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Jan'25 inflation in line with our forecast but already lower than RBI forecast for Jan-Mar'25 quarter. We expect up to 100bp of further rate cuts...

RBI's 25bp cut likely to be followed by 75bp more by Aug'25 as inflation recedes. Delhi election to boost urban governance, and income tax cuts...