Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In Apr-Dec'24 (3/4th of FY25), the fiscal deficit was only 56% of the FY25 target, and its 12mma was 4.9% of GDP. Seasonality should bring it to 4.7% by end-FY25.</li>
<li>PIT, CGST and customs revenue grew 11-22%YoY in CY24. Corporate taxes declined, falling 8.33%YoY in Q2FY25, but recovering to grow 3.34%YoY in Q3FY25. The worst is over for EPS growth. </li>
<li>The 4qma of the CAD was 0.6% of GDP in Sep'24; a surplus in Dec'24 likely cut the Q3FY25 deficit further. Seasonality should ensure a FY25 surplus (0.2% of GDP). </li>
</ul>


In Apr-Dec'24 (3/4th of FY25), the fiscal deficit was only 56% of the FY25 target, and its 12mma was 4.9% of GDP. Seasonality should bring it to 4.7% by end-FY25.
PIT, CGST and customs revenue grew 11-22%YoY in CY24. Corporate taxes declined, falling 8.33%YoY in Q2FY25, but recovering to grow 3.34%YoY in Q3FY25. The worst is over for EPS growth. 
The 4qma of the CAD was 0.6% of GDP in Sep'24; a surplus in Dec'24 likely cut the Q3FY25 deficit further. Seasonality should ensure a FY25 surplus (0.2% of GDP). 


India Twin Deficit Watch: CA Surplus, and a Lower-Than-Estimated Fiscal Deficit

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> implied volatility could be seen as rich when compared to its own history and in comparison to realized volatility.</li>
<li>Putting implied volatility into context with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> market levels and trends will lead to a different conclusion. Implied volatility is not nearly as rich as conventional measures suggest.</li>
<li>This Insight provides a quantitative indication at which price implied volatility can be assessed as rich, given current relative index levels.</li>
</ul>



NIFTY Index implied volatility could be seen as rich when compared to its own history and in comparison to realized volatility.
Putting implied volatility into context with NIFTY Index market levels and trends will lead to a different conclusion. Implied volatility is not nearly as rich as conventional measures suggest.
This Insight provides a quantitative indication at which price implied volatility can be assessed as rich, given current relative index levels.


EQD | Nifty 50 Option Strategy - Implied Volatility Is Not as Rich as It Seems

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The return of Donald Trump to the global trade landscape brings uncertainty and potential disruption, particularly for countries like China with high trade exposure to the US</li>
<li>India, on the other hand, appears to be in a more insulated position, with lower trade dependence and stable fundamentals</li>
<li>Overall, the trade dynamics between the US, China, and India will continue to evolve, shaping the future of the global economy.</li>
</ul>


The return of Donald Trump to the global trade landscape brings uncertainty and potential disruption, particularly for countries like China with high trade exposure to the US
India, on the other hand, appears to be in a more insulated position, with lower trade dependence and stable fundamentals
Overall, the trade dynamics between the US, China, and India will continue to evolve, shaping the future of the global economy.


Trump 2.0: Understanding the Impact on India and China's Trade

<ul>
<li>Post-COVID, a popular narrative suggests that domestic institutional investors (DIIs) now wield greater influence in the Indian equity markets. </li>
<li>While factual to an extent, this narrative misinterprets the broader reality. </li>
<li>As a current account-deficit country, India relies heavily on foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows to ensure macroeconomic stability and sustain its risk appetite.</li>
</ul>


Post-COVID, a popular narrative suggests that domestic institutional investors (DIIs) now wield greater influence in the Indian equity markets. 
While factual to an extent, this narrative misinterprets the broader reality. 
As a current account-deficit country, India relies heavily on foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows to ensure macroeconomic stability and sustain its risk appetite.


Charted Insights: FII Flows Are Catalyst of Indian Equity Markets

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis announces plans to set up an Innovation City, similar to Gujarat's GIFT City, to boost the state's leadership in AI and start-ups.</li>
<li>U.S. has removed three Indian entities: IGCAR, BARC, and Indian Rare Earths from its restrictive list, advancing energy cooperation, joint research, and strengthening bilateral ties, particularly in nuclear, energy sectors.</li>
<li>Delhivery launches Rapid Commerce, a sub-2-hour delivery service in Bengaluru for D2C brands. The service aims to enhance customer satisfaction, with plans for expansion to other major cities across India.</li>
</ul>


Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis announces plans to set up an Innovation City, similar to Gujarat's GIFT City, to boost the state's leadership in AI and start-ups.
U.S. has removed three Indian entities: IGCAR, BARC, and Indian Rare Earths from its restrictive list, advancing energy cooperation, joint research, and strengthening bilateral ties, particularly in nuclear, energy sectors.
Delhivery launches Rapid Commerce, a sub-2-hour delivery service in Bengaluru for D2C brands. The service aims to enhance customer satisfaction, with plans for expansion to other major cities across India.


#88 India Insight: Maharashtra's Innovation City, US Eases Restrictions, Delhivery's Rapid Commerce

India

The S&P BSE Sensex Index is a cap-weighted index. The index members have been selected on the basis of liquidity, depth, and floating-stock-adjustment depth and industry representation. Sensex has a base date and value of 100 in 1978-1979. The Index shifted to free-float methodology since 09/01/03. Please see {SNSXOLD Index <GO>} for mid-month options.

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

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S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

India Twin Deficit Watch: CA Surplus, and a Lower-Than-Estimated Fiscal Deficit

Fiscal deficit on track to be below FY25 target, revenue growth robust in PIT, CGST and customs. CAD likely to turn into surplus for FY25. EPS...

Prasenjit K. Basu

EQD | Nifty 50 Option Strategy - Implied Volatility Is Not as Rich as It Seems

Implied volatility of the Nifty 50 Index may seem rich historically, but when compared to market levels, it's not as high as it appears.

Gaudenz Schneider

Trump 2.0: Understanding the Impact on India and China's Trade

As Trump took the office as US President, the tariff war will be keenly watched across the major economy. While India remains least impacted by...

Nimish Maheshwari

Charted Insights: FII Flows Are Catalyst of Indian Equity Markets

Post-COVID, domestic institutional investors in India may have gained influence in equity markets, but the country still heavily relies on foreign...

Nimish Maheshwari

#88 India Insight: Maharashtra's Innovation City, US Eases Restrictions, Delhivery's Rapid Commerce

Maharashtra plans Innovation City, U.S. lifts restrictions on Indian entities, Delhivery launches Rapid Commerce for quick delivery in Bengaluru.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India Twin Deficit Watch: CA Surplus, and a Lower-Than-Estimated Fiscal Deficit

​Fiscal deficit on track to be below FY25 target, revenue growth robust in PIT, CGST and customs. CAD likely to turn into surplus for FY25. EPS...

Prasenjit K. Basu

EQD | Nifty 50 Option Strategy - Implied Volatility Is Not as Rich as It Seems

​Implied volatility of the Nifty 50 Index may seem rich historically, but when compared to market levels, it's not as high as it appears.

Gaudenz Schneider

Trump 2.0: Understanding the Impact on India and China's Trade

As Trump took the office as US President, the tariff war will be keenly watched across the major economy. While India remains least impacted by...

Nimish Maheshwari

Charted Insights: FII Flows Are Catalyst of Indian Equity Markets

​Post-COVID, domestic institutional investors in India may have gained influence in equity markets, but the country still heavily relies on foreign...

Nimish Maheshwari

#88 India Insight: Maharashtra's Innovation City, US Eases Restrictions, Delhivery's Rapid Commerce

​Maharashtra plans Innovation City, U.S. lifts restrictions on Indian entities, Delhivery launches Rapid Commerce for quick delivery in Bengaluru.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Fiscal deficit on track to be below FY25 target, revenue growth robust in PIT, CGST and customs. CAD likely to turn into surplus for FY25. EPS...

Implied volatility of the Nifty 50 Index may seem rich historically, but when compared to market levels, it's not as high as it appears.

Post-COVID, domestic institutional investors in India may have gained influence in equity markets, but the country still heavily relies on foreign...

Maharashtra plans Innovation City, U.S. lifts restrictions on Indian entities, Delhivery launches Rapid Commerce for quick delivery in Bengaluru.