Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research at Aletheia Capital

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 35 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist and Asia sector strategist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

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CrossASEAN Research at Aletheia Capital

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In Apr-Dec'24 (3/4th of FY25), the fiscal deficit was only 56% of the FY25 target, and its 12mma was 4.9% of GDP. Seasonality should bring it to 4.7% by end-FY25.</li>
<li>PIT, CGST and customs revenue grew 11-22%YoY in CY24. Corporate taxes declined, falling 8.33%YoY in Q2FY25, but recovering to grow 3.34%YoY in Q3FY25. The worst is over for EPS growth. </li>
<li>The 4qma of the CAD was 0.6% of GDP in Sep'24; a surplus in Dec'24 likely cut the Q3FY25 deficit further. Seasonality should ensure a FY25 surplus (0.2% of GDP). </li>
</ul>


In Apr-Dec'24 (3/4th of FY25), the fiscal deficit was only 56% of the FY25 target, and its 12mma was 4.9% of GDP. Seasonality should bring it to 4.7% by end-FY25.
PIT, CGST and customs revenue grew 11-22%YoY in CY24. Corporate taxes declined, falling 8.33%YoY in Q2FY25, but recovering to grow 3.34%YoY in Q3FY25. The worst is over for EPS growth. 
The 4qma of the CAD was 0.6% of GDP in Sep'24; a surplus in Dec'24 likely cut the Q3FY25 deficit further. Seasonality should ensure a FY25 surplus (0.2% of GDP). 


S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

India Twin Deficit Watch: CA Surplus, and a Lower-Than-Estimated Fiscal Deficit