Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The lock-up on the second half of the anchor investor allocation for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN)</a> ends after market close today and the shares will be available for sale tomorrow.</li>
<li>The lock-up expiry further increases free float for the stock and there will be multiple index inclusions over the next few months.</li>
<li>The largest index inclusion will be in February, followed by smaller inclusions in March and June. In total, passives will mop up around 16% of the float.</li>
</ul>


The lock-up on the second half of the anchor investor allocation for Hyundai Motor India (HYUNDAI IN) ends after market close today and the shares will be available for sale tomorrow.
The lock-up expiry further increases free float for the stock and there will be multiple index inclusions over the next few months.
The largest index inclusion will be in February, followed by smaller inclusions in March and June. In total, passives will mop up around 16% of the float.


Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The real policy rate is +1.28% (using CPI; +4.13% using WPI). High real rates are a hindrance to the real economy, especially with core inflation below 4%YoY for 13 months.</li>
<li>F&amp;B inflation moderated to 7.69%YoY in Dec'24 (from 9.69%YoY in Oct'24), as vegetable inflation eased to 26.6%YoY (from 42.2%YoY). All other key food and non-food inflation categories abated. </li>
<li>Bountiful winter and spring crops should dampen inflation further, allowing the first rate cut in 2 years (Feb'25), and 25bp rate cuts at each of the next 2 MPC meetings. </li>
</ul>


The real policy rate is +1.28% (using CPI; +4.13% using WPI). High real rates are a hindrance to the real economy, especially with core inflation below 4%YoY for 13 months.
F&amp;B inflation moderated to 7.69%YoY in Dec'24 (from 9.69%YoY in Oct'24), as vegetable inflation eased to 26.6%YoY (from 42.2%YoY). All other key food and non-food inflation categories abated. 
Bountiful winter and spring crops should dampen inflation further, allowing the first rate cut in 2 years (Feb'25), and 25bp rate cuts at each of the next 2 MPC meetings. 


India: Still on Track for Rate Cuts to Begin in Feb'25; Continue at Next 2 MPC Meetings

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India's real GDP growth for FY25 is forecast at 6.4%, reflecting a significant slowdown from FY24's 8.2%, driven by weaker investment and industrial performance.</li>
<li>The slower growth trajectory highlights the challenges in maintaining momentum, with key sectors like manufacturing and mining underperforming, signaling potential long-term structural issues for India's economy.</li>
<li>This outlook suggests a cautious approach to India’s growth, indicating that short-term consumer-driven growth may not offset the long-term impact of subdued investment and external imbalances</li>
</ul>


India's real GDP growth for FY25 is forecast at 6.4%, reflecting a significant slowdown from FY24's 8.2%, driven by weaker investment and industrial performance.
The slower growth trajectory highlights the challenges in maintaining momentum, with key sectors like manufacturing and mining underperforming, signaling potential long-term structural issues for India's economy.
This outlook suggests a cautious approach to India’s growth, indicating that short-term consumer-driven growth may not offset the long-term impact of subdued investment and external imbalances


India's GDP Growth Moderates: What’s Next for FY25?

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Timing expiration, assessing volatility, and managing event risk are crucial for effective option trades.</li>
<li>Exchange holidays, expiries, central bank rate decisions, and index changes can significantly impact volatility and market direction.</li>
<li>The attached document provides key dates to help navigate the complexities of option trading in Australia, Hong Kong, India, Japan, South Korea, and the USA.
</li>
</ul>


Timing expiration, assessing volatility, and managing event risk are crucial for effective option trades.
Exchange holidays, expiries, central bank rate decisions, and index changes can significantly impact volatility and market direction.
The attached document provides key dates to help navigate the complexities of option trading in Australia, Hong Kong, India, Japan, South Korea, and the USA.



2025 Essential Calendar for Option Traders in Asia: Key Dates & Insights

<ul>
<li>India's growth story is facing two major risks in 2025 - Valuations and earnings growth</li>
<li>56% of smallcaps and midcaps are trading at valuations higher than index valuations which itself is trading at all-time high valuations</li>
<li>Earnings show sharp slowdown in QFY25 owing to slowdown in capex, govt spend and inflations.</li>
</ul>


India's growth story is facing two major risks in 2025 - Valuations and earnings growth
56% of smallcaps and midcaps are trading at valuations higher than index valuations which itself is trading at all-time high valuations
Earnings show sharp slowdown in QFY25 owing to slowdown in capex, govt spend and inflations.


Charted Insights: India's Growth Story; Two Major Risks Looming Ahead in 2025

India

The S&P BSE Sensex Index is a cap-weighted index. The index members have been selected on the basis of liquidity, depth, and floating-stock-adjustment depth and industry representation. Sensex has a base date and value of 100 in 1978-1979. The Index shifted to free-float methodology since 09/01/03. Please see {SNSXOLD Index <GO>} for mid-month options.

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near

Hyundai Motor India has a lock-up expiry tomorrow - that is unlikely to lead to big selling but will increase free float. There will be multiple...

Brian Freitas

India: Still on Track for Rate Cuts to Begin in Feb'25; Continue at Next 2 MPC Meetings

High real policy rates are hindering the economy. But with core inflation low and the bountiful winter harvest, food inflation should ease...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India's GDP Growth Moderates: What’s Next for FY25?

India's FY25 GDP growth forecasted at 6.4%, down from 8.2% in FY24 due to weak investment and industrial performance, signaling potential long...

Nimish Maheshwari

2025 Essential Calendar for Option Traders in Asia: Key Dates & Insights

Timing expiration and managing event risk are essential for successful option trading. This document provides key dates for option traders across...

Gaudenz Schneider

Charted Insights: India's Growth Story; Two Major Risks Looming Ahead in 2025

India's growth story in 2025 is at risk due to high valuations and slowing earnings growth, with smallcaps and midcaps trading at record highs.

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hyundai Motor (HYUNDAI IN): Anchor Lock-Up Expiry Increases Float; Index Inclusions Near

Hyundai Motor India has a lock-up expiry tomorrow - that is unlikely to lead to big selling but will increase free float. There will be multiple...

Brian Freitas

India: Still on Track for Rate Cuts to Begin in Feb'25; Continue at Next 2 MPC Meetings

​High real policy rates are hindering the economy. But with core inflation low and the bountiful winter harvest, food inflation should ease...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India's GDP Growth Moderates: What’s Next for FY25?

​India's FY25 GDP growth forecasted at 6.4%, down from 8.2% in FY24 due to weak investment and industrial performance, signaling potential long...

Nimish Maheshwari

2025 Essential Calendar for Option Traders in Asia: Key Dates & Insights

Timing expiration and managing event risk are essential for successful option trading. This document provides key dates for option traders across...

Gaudenz Schneider

Charted Insights: India's Growth Story; Two Major Risks Looming Ahead in 2025

​India's growth story in 2025 is at risk due to high valuations and slowing earnings growth, with smallcaps and midcaps trading at record highs.

Nimish Maheshwari

High real policy rates are hindering the economy. But with core inflation low and the bountiful winter harvest, food inflation should ease...

India's FY25 GDP growth forecasted at 6.4%, down from 8.2% in FY24 due to weak investment and industrial performance, signaling potential long...

India's growth story in 2025 is at risk due to high valuations and slowing earnings growth, with smallcaps and midcaps trading at record highs.