Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research at Aletheia Capital

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 35 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist and Asia sector strategist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

India: RBI to Cut 75bp More, and BJP Delhi Win to Spur 8% RGDP Growth Post Tax Cuts

India: Our View About Inflation Vindicated in Jan'25, Paving Path to Faster Rate Cuts

India: Inflation Likely Averaging 3.2%YoY in Apr-Dec'25 Will Allow 100bp of Rate Cuts

India: RBI Extends Rate Policy Error Despite Slow Growth and Prospect of Low Inflation

India: Policy Rate to Decline 75bp by Jun'25 as Inflation Recedes

Charted Insights: India's Inflation Outlook for 2025; More Chances of Downside, Rather Than Upside

The Beat Ideas: Globus Spirits- Maize, Capex, B2C Play

The Beat Ideas: EID Parry's Strategic Transformation- Cane to Consumer

CrossASEAN Research at Aletheia Capital

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The real policy rate is +1.28% (using CPI; +4.13% using WPI). High real rates are a hindrance to the real economy, especially with core inflation below 4%YoY for 13 months.</li>
<li>F&amp;B inflation moderated to 7.69%YoY in Dec'24 (from 9.69%YoY in Oct'24), as vegetable inflation eased to 26.6%YoY (from 42.2%YoY). All other key food and non-food inflation categories abated. </li>
<li>Bountiful winter and spring crops should dampen inflation further, allowing the first rate cut in 2 years (Feb'25), and 25bp rate cuts at each of the next 2 MPC meetings. </li>
</ul>


The real policy rate is +1.28% (using CPI; +4.13% using WPI). High real rates are a hindrance to the real economy, especially with core inflation below 4%YoY for 13 months.
F&amp;B inflation moderated to 7.69%YoY in Dec'24 (from 9.69%YoY in Oct'24), as vegetable inflation eased to 26.6%YoY (from 42.2%YoY). All other key food and non-food inflation categories abated. 
Bountiful winter and spring crops should dampen inflation further, allowing the first rate cut in 2 years (Feb'25), and 25bp rate cuts at each of the next 2 MPC meetings. 


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NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX EQUITY)

India: Still on Track for Rate Cuts to Begin in Feb'25; Continue at Next 2 MPC Meetings