Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Event Preview: The Reserve Bank of India will announce its next policy decision on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. After June's larger-than-expected 0.5% rate cut, consensus expects no change.</li>
<li>
Market Reaction History: The NIFTY 50 has historically moved more when the RBI surprises markets - a 27% occurrence rate over the past decade. </li>
<li>
Options Perspective: This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements and contrasts it with what current option pricing implies for this week’s move.</li>
</ul>



Event Preview: The Reserve Bank of India will announce its next policy decision on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. After June's larger-than-expected 0.5% rate cut, consensus expects no change.

Market Reaction History: The NIFTY 50 has historically moved more when the RBI surprises markets - a 27% occurrence rate over the past decade. 

Options Perspective: This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements and contrasts it with what current option pricing implies for this week’s move.


RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>What the dollar bear market rally means for our themes</li>
<li>The domestic Chinese market starts to rally, outperforming in Asia</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
What the dollar bear market rally means for our themes
The domestic Chinese market starts to rally, outperforming in Asia


Overview #31 - China Breaks Out and the USD Has Its Moment

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-securities-depository-ltd-nsdl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39939:1" rel="noopener">NSDL (NSDL IN)</a> is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR 40bn (US$464m) of stock at a valuation of up to INR 160bn (US$1.85bn).</li>
<li>The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in November.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-depository-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27902:1" rel="noopener">Central Depository Services (CDSL IN)</a>'s stock price has dropped following the announcement of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-securities-depository-ltd-nsdl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39939:1" rel="noopener">NSDL</a>'s IPO price band and the muted results could lead to further downside in the stock.</li>
</ul>



NSDL (NSDL IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR 40bn (US$464m) of stock at a valuation of up to INR 160bn (US$1.85bn).
The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in November.

Central Depository Services (CDSL IN)'s stock price has dropped following the announcement of NSDL's IPO price band and the muted results could lead to further downside in the stock.


NSDL (NSDL IN) IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Context: Central Bank rate decisions, index changes and political events can move markets and affect volatility. Exchange holidays and option expiration schedules might influence liquidity on these days.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Earnings season keeps several regional markets busy through early to mid-August. Meanwhile, three central banks in the region are scheduled to hold monetary policy meetings spaced across the month.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>



Context: Central Bank rate decisions, index changes and political events can move markets and affect volatility. Exchange holidays and option expiration schedules might influence liquidity on these days.

Highlights: Earnings season keeps several regional markets busy through early to mid-August. Meanwhile, three central banks in the region are scheduled to hold monetary policy meetings spaced across the month.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


The Month Ahead: Key Events in August 2025

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infosys-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:267:1" rel="noopener">Infosys</a> (INFO IN / INFY US) reports Q1 FY26 results on Wednesday, 23 July 2025 at 15:45 IST; earnings days historically triggered outsized price moves.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Analyzing historical post-earnings price movements, along with forward-looking options-implied volatility, provides valuable insights for event-driven strategies.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Access the data and insights to take advantage of anticipated price moves and volatility crush. Potential option strategies explained.</li>
</ul>



Infosys (INFO IN / INFY US) reports Q1 FY26 results on Wednesday, 23 July 2025 at 15:45 IST; earnings days historically triggered outsized price moves.

Highlight: Analyzing historical post-earnings price movements, along with forward-looking options-implied volatility, provides valuable insights for event-driven strategies.

Why Read: Access the data and insights to take advantage of anticipated price moves and volatility crush. Potential option strategies explained.


Infosys (INFO IN) Q1 Results: What Options Markets Are Pricing In

India

The S&P BSE Sensex Index is a cap-weighted index. The index members have been selected on the basis of liquidity, depth, and floating-stock-adjustment depth and industry representation. Sensex has a base date and value of 100 in 1978-1979. The Index shifted to free-float methodology since 09/01/03. Please see {SNSXOLD Index <GO>} for mid-month options.

S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

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S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)

RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market

A data-driven look at how the Nifty 50 has historically reacted to RBI policy decisions - and what current options pricing signals for August 6.

Gaudenz Schneider

Overview #31 - China Breaks Out and the USD Has Its Moment

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Dollar bear market rally and the domestic Chinese market.

Rikki Malik

NSDL (NSDL IN) IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline

NSDL is looking to list by selling up to INR40bn of stock at a valuation of up to INR160bn. No Fast Entry to global indices. Stock could be added...

Brian Freitas

The Month Ahead: Key Events in August 2025

Three central banks (India, Australia, South Korea) decide on rates. Earnings season continues in South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and India, and is...

Gaudenz Schneider

Infosys (INFO IN) Q1 Results: What Options Markets Are Pricing In

Actionable strategies ahead of Infosys Q1 on 23 July 2025: Historical moves, implied volatility, and what the options market is signaling.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)