Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>India has undertaken a major reform of the GST regime, collapsing the 5 slabs to 3, and substantially cutting the GST-rate for almost all goods and services. Positive for PCE. </li>
<li>Since 27th Aug'25, India faces a 50% tariff on more than half of its goods exports to the US (its biggest export market), a significant setback to growth. </li>
<li>FY26 fiscal deficit will likely exceed government targets, but this stimulus will ensure 8%+ real GDP growth despite weaker goods exports. Services strength will keep CAD to 0.6% of GDP. </li>
</ul>


India has undertaken a major reform of the GST regime, collapsing the 5 slabs to 3, and substantially cutting the GST-rate for almost all goods and services. Positive for PCE. 
Since 27th Aug'25, India faces a 50% tariff on more than half of its goods exports to the US (its biggest export market), a significant setback to growth. 
FY26 fiscal deficit will likely exceed government targets, but this stimulus will ensure 8%+ real GDP growth despite weaker goods exports. Services strength will keep CAD to 0.6% of GDP. 


India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Stimulus to Offset the Trump Tariff Setback to Growth

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>September brings heavy index rebalancing activity. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> will join both the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>
The Fed is widely expected to cut rates and Asia-Pac peers (BoJ, RBA, RBI) are also meeting.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.</li>
</ul>


September brings heavy index rebalancing activity. Pop Mart (9992 HK) will join both the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).

The Fed is widely expected to cut rates and Asia-Pac peers (BoJ, RBA, RBI) are also meeting.

Why Read: Plan ahead and take into account known market events when making investment and trading decision.


Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India’s National Statistical Office reported 7.8% real GDP growth for Q1 FY26 (Apr–Jun 2025), a clear beat versus a Reuters poll at 6.7% and above Q4’s 7.4%</li>
<li>Economists point to a softer deflator, solid government capex, and front-loaded exports ahead of tariff implementation. Even so, the level of real activity was strong relative to expectations. </li>
<li>Strong domestic parameters like GST and PMI, points towards strong domestic demand despite tariff and export uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


India’s National Statistical Office reported 7.8% real GDP growth for Q1 FY26 (Apr–Jun 2025), a clear beat versus a Reuters poll at 6.7% and above Q4’s 7.4%
Economists point to a softer deflator, solid government capex, and front-loaded exports ahead of tariff implementation. Even so, the level of real activity was strong relative to expectations. 
Strong domestic parameters like GST and PMI, points towards strong domestic demand despite tariff and export uncertainty.


Thematic Report: India's Economy Remain Resilient During Uncertain Times

<ul>
<li>India is set for its biggest GST overhaul since 2017, with a shift to a dual-slab GST system (5% and 18%) to simplify tax structures, reduce consumer prices, boost consumption</li>
<li>The proposed rate cuts are likely to drive increased consumption, benefiting sectors like automobiles, cement, and consumer durables, and provide a multi-engine growth boost for the economy.</li>
<li>With the GST reform potentially lowering inflation, raising private sector investments, and stimulating discretionary spending, we see a positive impact on GDP growth by around 1.6-2% in the medium term.</li>
</ul>


India is set for its biggest GST overhaul since 2017, with a shift to a dual-slab GST system (5% and 18%) to simplify tax structures, reduce consumer prices, boost consumption
The proposed rate cuts are likely to drive increased consumption, benefiting sectors like automobiles, cement, and consumer durables, and provide a multi-engine growth boost for the economy.
With the GST reform potentially lowering inflation, raising private sector investments, and stimulating discretionary spending, we see a positive impact on GDP growth by around 1.6-2% in the medium term.


Thematic Report: Can Proposed GST Rate Cuts Revive Consumption Growth in India?

<ul>
<li>Headline CPI inflation eased to 1.55%YoY in Jul'25, implying that the real repo rate was +3.95%, the highest in 6.5 years (and versus +2.19% in Jan'25 before rate cutting began). </li>
<li>The RBI is behind the curve, and will need to cut the repo rate another 75bp by Dec'25 in order to adhere to its 2-6% inflation target. </li>
<li>Vegetable and food deflation will persist until Oct'25, thereby ensuring 2.8% average CPI inflation in FY26. Countering Trump tariffs with faster INR depreciation also argues for steady rate cuts. </li>
</ul>


Headline CPI inflation eased to 1.55%YoY in Jul'25, implying that the real repo rate was +3.95%, the highest in 6.5 years (and versus +2.19% in Jan'25 before rate cutting began). 
The RBI is behind the curve, and will need to cut the repo rate another 75bp by Dec'25 in order to adhere to its 2-6% inflation target. 
Vegetable and food deflation will persist until Oct'25, thereby ensuring 2.8% average CPI inflation in FY26. Countering Trump tariffs with faster INR depreciation also argues for steady rate cuts. 


India: Continuing Disinflation Highlights RBI's Renewed (Mild) Policy Error

India

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India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Stimulus to Offset the Trump Tariff Setback to Growth

US tariffs will push CAD to 0.6% of GDP (vs previous fcst of 0.2%), but the GST and income tax cuts will provide a 1% of GDP stimulus, enabling...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

September packs in index rebalances, quarterly expiries, central bank calls, and Fed drama—keeping markets busy amid a light holiday calendar.

Gaudenz Schneider

Thematic Report: India's Economy Remain Resilient During Uncertain Times

India's real GDP growth for Q1 FY26 beats expectations at 7.8%, driven by solid government capex and strong domestic demand despite export...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report: Can Proposed GST Rate Cuts Revive Consumption Growth in India?

India is revamping its GST system with dual-slab rates to simplify taxes, reduce prices, and boost consumption, potentially driving GDP growth by...

Nimish Maheshwari

India: Continuing Disinflation Highlights RBI's Renewed (Mild) Policy Error

CPI inflation eased to 1.55% in Jul'25, with real repo rate at +3.95%, a 6.5-year high. RBI needs another 75bp of cuts by Dec'25 to keep to its...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Stimulus to Offset the Trump Tariff Setback to Growth

US tariffs will push CAD to 0.6% of GDP (vs previous fcst of 0.2%), but the GST and income tax cuts will provide a 1% of GDP stimulus, enabling...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Index Changes and Rate Cuts: Key Events in September 2025

September packs in index rebalances, quarterly expiries, central bank calls, and Fed drama—keeping markets busy amid a light holiday calendar.

Gaudenz Schneider

Thematic Report: India's Economy Remain Resilient During Uncertain Times

​India's real GDP growth for Q1 FY26 beats expectations at 7.8%, driven by solid government capex and strong domestic demand despite export...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report: Can Proposed GST Rate Cuts Revive Consumption Growth in India?

​India is revamping its GST system with dual-slab rates to simplify taxes, reduce prices, and boost consumption, potentially driving GDP growth by...

Nimish Maheshwari

India: Continuing Disinflation Highlights RBI's Renewed (Mild) Policy Error

​CPI inflation eased to 1.55% in Jul'25, with real repo rate at +3.95%, a 6.5-year high. RBI needs another 75bp of cuts by Dec'25 to keep to its...

Prasenjit K. Basu

India's real GDP growth for Q1 FY26 beats expectations at 7.8%, driven by solid government capex and strong domestic demand despite export...

India is revamping its GST system with dual-slab rates to simplify taxes, reduce prices, and boost consumption, potentially driving GDP growth by...

CPI inflation eased to 1.55% in Jul'25, with real repo rate at +3.95%, a 6.5-year high. RBI needs another 75bp of cuts by Dec'25 to keep to its...