Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>Despite the rough market for ESG-related indexed funds recently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/msci-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17865:1" rel="noopener">MSCI (MSCI US)</a> continues to increase its market share and solidify its already dominant position as the top indexer.</li>
<li>MSCI ESG-related indexes currently have a 67% (and still growing) market share of the overall ESG indexing ecosystem with nearly US$250 billion in index-linked ETF assets globally.</li>
<li>MSCI's dominant market position is even stronger in important ESG niches/verticals, and two in particular: 1) climate change-focused indexes, and 2) Asia-Pacific ESG markets.</li>
</ul>


Despite the rough market for ESG-related indexed funds recently, MSCI (MSCI US) continues to increase its market share and solidify its already dominant position as the top indexer.
MSCI ESG-related indexes currently have a 67% (and still growing) market share of the overall ESG indexing ecosystem with nearly US$250 billion in index-linked ETF assets globally.
MSCI's dominant market position is even stronger in important ESG niches/verticals, and two in particular: 1) climate change-focused indexes, and 2) Asia-Pacific ESG markets.


MSCI ESG Indexes Gaining in Market Share Despite ESG's Recent "Bear Market"

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P (the company) may be a lot more exposed than S&amp;P (the index) if rates stay higher for longer and bets against the Fed unwind in 2H23.</li>
<li>While we like the rating agency and financial data provider's business portfolio, valuation is looking a bit stretched based on fundamental, relative and technical valuation metrics.</li>
<li>We believe it is unlikely that the stock will push through the USD375/share resistance level in the near term, and would look for entry opportunities closer to USD325/share.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P (the company) may be a lot more exposed than S&amp;P (the index) if rates stay higher for longer and bets against the Fed unwind in 2H23.
While we like the rating agency and financial data provider's business portfolio, valuation is looking a bit stretched based on fundamental, relative and technical valuation metrics.
We believe it is unlikely that the stock will push through the USD375/share resistance level in the near term, and would look for entry opportunities closer to USD325/share.


S&P (SPGI US) VS S&P (SPX Index): A Leveraged Play on Rate Expectations

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund

<ul>
<li>In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.</li>
<li>After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.</li>
</ul>


In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.
We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.
After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.


Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples - Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We may look back several months from now at the past week as the pivotal point where the market lost hope that the Fed could actually achieve a “soft landing” from the current monetary policy tightening cycle and instead began planning for how painful of a recession is coming.</li><li> Before beginning the question and answer session of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell clarified that “nothing had changed” from his hawkish message delivered during the Jackson Hole meeting back in August. </li><li>However, things did change in that instead the Fed goalposts for rate expectations got ratcheted up yet again for 2023 via their internal “dot plot,” which is their survey of where each Fed member thinks rates should be. </li></ul>

We may look back several months from now at the past week as the pivotal point where the market lost hope that the Fed could actually achieve a “soft landing” from the current monetary policy tightening cycle and instead began planning for how painful of a recession is coming. Before beginning the question and answer session of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell clarified that “nothing had changed” from his hawkish message delivered during the Jackson Hole meeting back in August. However, things did change in that instead the Fed goalposts for rate expectations got ratcheted up yet again for 2023 via their internal “dot plot,” which is their survey of where each Fed member thinks rates should be. 

<ul>
<li>In a recent Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/regulating-esg-ratings-in-india-outline-of-sebi-s-proposed-regulatory-framework" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:64468" rel="noopener">Regulating ESG Ratings in India: Outline of SEBI's Proposed Regulatory Framework</a>, I summarised SEBI's proposed regulatory framework for ESG ratings in India. </li>
<li>This Insight goes a bit further, looking at implications of regulation on stocks of ESG ratings providers (ERPs), especially Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) and Research Analysts (RAs).</li>
<li>Downside risk are minimal for ERPs, but a few scenarios and stipulations related to conflicts of interest and compensation (how ERPs are paid, and by whom) could have an impact.</li>
</ul>


In a recent Insight, Regulating ESG Ratings in India: Outline of SEBI's Proposed Regulatory Framework, I summarised SEBI's proposed regulatory framework for ESG ratings in India. 
This Insight goes a bit further, looking at implications of regulation on stocks of ESG ratings providers (ERPs), especially Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) and Research Analysts (RAs).
Downside risk are minimal for ERPs, but a few scenarios and stipulations related to conflicts of interest and compensation (how ERPs are paid, and by whom) could have an impact.


Credit Rating Agency Stocks Most Impacted by SEBI Regulation of ESG Ratings in India

United States

S&P Global Inc. provides clients with financial information services. The Company offers information regarding ratings, benchmarks, and analytics in the global capital and commodity markets. S&P Global operates worldwide.

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S&P Global (SPGI US)

S&P (SPGI US) VS S&P (SPX Index): A Leveraged Play on Rate Expectations

S&P the company has outperformed its namesake index on hopes that ratings fees will recover this year. But the stock's annuity-like features may...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples - Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the $SPX 4100-4165 area. Upgrading...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 9/26

Before beginning the question and answer session of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell clarified that “nothing had changed”...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Credit Rating Agency Stocks Most Impacted by SEBI Regulation of ESG Ratings in India

The potential impacts of SEBI's proposed framework for regulating ESG ratings are unclear at this stage, but a few things (related to conflicts of...

Kyle Rudden

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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MSCI ESG Indexes Gaining in Market Share Despite ESG's Recent "Bear Market"

It's been rough for ESG index funds and the ESG indexers that index them. Not for MSCI, though. MSCI continues to gain market share and solidify...

Kyle Rudden

S&P (SPGI US) VS S&P (SPX Index): A Leveraged Play on Rate Expectations

S&P the company has outperformed its namesake index on hopes that ratings fees will recover this year. But the stock's annuity-like features may...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples - Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the $SPX 4100-4165 area. Upgrading...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 9/26

Before beginning the question and answer session of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell clarified that “nothing had changed”...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Credit Rating Agency Stocks Most Impacted by SEBI Regulation of ESG Ratings in India

The potential impacts of SEBI's proposed framework for regulating ESG ratings are unclear at this stage, but a few things (related to conflicts of...

Kyle Rudden