Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

We see those big numbers in the press, almost daily it seems. About ESG assets under management (AUM) reaching US$40 trillion, expected to hit US$53 trillion by 2025. Or about quarterly ESG fund flows nearing US$100 billion, and the seismic shift in ESG AUM to passively-managed funds.Recent growth in SRI (sustainable and responsible investing) and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) assets and investment products would not be possible without the growing ecosystem of index providers, and the SRI/ESG indices and benchmarks that they create.The ongoing boom in SRI/ESG indexing, which shows no signs of slowing, creates new opportunies for investors – and I do not mean investing in indexed mutual funds or ETFs. Too obvious, and too retail. I am referring to emergent opportunities associated with SRI/ESG index arbitrage.Index rebalancing/reconstitution events often create windows of abnormal returns for constituents being re-weighted, added, or dropped. That much is obvious, and the effects of broad market index changes are well-known. For SRI/ESG indices, this is uncharted territory with huge potential.This Smartkarma Original looks at the evolving SRI/ESG indexing landscape, and more importantly the emergent investing (e.g., stocks of listed indexers) and trading (e.g., arbitraging index changes) strategies arising from this global boom in SRI/ESG indices... from an Original perspective.<h2>WHAT'S ORIGINAL?</h2>Typically, discussions about SRI/ESG indices focus on their performance and in the context of that age-old "ESG-Alpha" debate – i.e., whether incorporating ESG factors into the investment process is worth the effort. To be clear, that is an important debate to have (and win). However, this report takes a different angle on SRI/ESG indices by focusing on investing and trading and strategies that capitalise on the boom in SRI/ESG indices. Theory (and a little speculation) backed by analysis.

We see those big numbers in the press, almost daily it seems. About ESG assets under management (AUM) reaching US$40 trillion, expected to hit US$53 trillion by 2025. Or about quarterly ESG fund flows nearing US$100 billion, and the seismic shift in ESG AUM to passively-managed funds.Recent growth in SRI (sustainable and responsible investing) and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) assets and investment products would not be possible without the growing ecosystem of index providers, and the SRI/ESG indices and benchmarks that they create.The ongoing boom in SRI/ESG indexing, which shows no signs of slowing, creates new opportunies for investors – and I do not mean investing in indexed mutual funds or ETFs. Too obvious, and too retail. I am referring to emergent opportunities associated with SRI/ESG index arbitrage.Index rebalancing/reconstitution events often create windows of abnormal returns for constituents being re-weighted, added, or dropped. That much is obvious, and the effects of broad market index changes are well-known. For SRI/ESG indices, this is uncharted territory with huge potential.This Smartkarma Original looks at the evolving SRI/ESG indexing landscape, and more importantly the emergent investing (e.g., stocks of listed indexers) and trading (e.g., arbitraging index changes) strategies arising from this global boom in SRI/ESG indices... from an Original perspective.WHAT'S ORIGINAL?Typically, discussions about SRI/ESG indices focus on their performance and in the context of that age-old "ESG-Alpha" debate – i.e., whether incorporating ESG factors into the investment process is worth the effort. To be clear, that is an important debate to have (and win). However, this report takes a different angle on SRI/ESG indices by focusing on investing and trading and strategies that capitalise on the boom in SRI/ESG indices. Theory (and a little speculation) backed by analysis.

Sustainability and ESG Indices: A Booming Ecosystem and New Investing and Trading Opportunities

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Equity Derivatives

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari / Equity Derivatives

<ul><li>Defensive options positioning dominated the week of June 29.</li><li>Put demand surged across financials, technology, and industrials.</li><li>A handful of names bucked the trend with extreme call-side conviction, creating sharp sentiment divergences.</li></ul>

Defensive options positioning dominated the week of June 29.Put demand surged across financials, technology, and industrials.A handful of names bucked the trend with extreme call-side conviction, creating sharp sentiment divergences.

Options Weekly: Bears Take Cover: Earnings Hedges and Crash Put-Buying Define a Volatile Week

The collective carbon footprint of global freight transportation and logistics is utterly massive, and growing. Freight and logistics accounts for 10-15% of the world's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or 3.4-5.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year of the world's 34 billion-tonne total. Current GHG mitigation and decarbonisation policies will be enough to fully offset GHG emissions from expected growth in freight transportation and logistics. Projections suggest a 60-80% increase in emissions by 2050, when a decrease of 55-80% is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.Climate impacts of trade growth are compounded by how it will shift freight movement from North Atlantic to Indian Ocean corridors, increasing average distances 12%. More critical is the local leg; 10% by tonne-kilometres but 30% of GHGs (inland modes like trucking are more GHG-intensive).On a company level, carbon footprint – present and future – depends on several things. Aside from macro issues like regional fuel mix and climate policies, two big factors are: 1) a company's specific function (e.g., freight trains vs. logistics software), and 2) its decarbonisation initiatives.The collective carbon footprint is a major ESG issue but we should not apply a broad-brush. Freight and logistics companies are vital to the economy and deliver life-critical goods like medication and food. Moreover, companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> – are leading a "greening" of supply chains.This is an important ESG issue to watch, but not an "exclusionary screen" by any means.

The collective carbon footprint of global freight transportation and logistics is utterly massive, and growing. Freight and logistics accounts for 10-15% of the world's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or 3.4-5.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year of the world's 34 billion-tonne total. Current GHG mitigation and decarbonisation policies will be enough to fully offset GHG emissions from expected growth in freight transportation and logistics. Projections suggest a 60-80% increase in emissions by 2050, when a decrease of 55-80% is needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.Climate impacts of trade growth are compounded by how it will shift freight movement from North Atlantic to Indian Ocean corridors, increasing average distances 12%. More critical is the local leg; 10% by tonne-kilometres but 30% of GHGs (inland modes like trucking are more GHG-intensive).On a company level, carbon footprint – present and future – depends on several things. Aside from macro issues like regional fuel mix and climate policies, two big factors are: 1) a company's specific function (e.g., freight trains vs. logistics software), and 2) its decarbonisation initiatives.The collective carbon footprint is a major ESG issue but we should not apply a broad-brush. Freight and logistics companies are vital to the economy and deliver life-critical goods like medication and food. Moreover, companies like JD Logistics (JDL HK) – are leading a "greening" of supply chains.This is an important ESG issue to watch, but not an "exclusionary screen" by any means.

Carbon Footprint of Freight Transportation and Logistics and Other ESG Issues

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The investor rotation into value focusing in on EM and DM banks; our key picks are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credicorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25963:1" rel="noopener">Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/turkiye-garanti-bankasi-as" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25026:1" rel="noopener">Turkiye Garanti Bankasi As (GARAN TI)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commercial-international-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27625:1" rel="noopener">Commercial International Bank (COMI EY)</a> in EM banks, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caixabank-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21255:1" rel="noopener">CaixaBank SA (CABK SM)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bper-banca-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21165:1" rel="noopener">BPER Banca S.p.A (BPE IM)</a> in Southern Europe banks</li>
<li>Exchanges and Big Data, the convergence; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intercontinental-exchange-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10221:1" rel="noopener">Intercontinental Exchange (ICE US)</a> is strong on recurring revenues, and both ICE and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9735:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P Global Inc. (SPGI US)</a> should deliver shareholder value creation from transformative M&amp;A</li>
<li>Potential for premium growth and returns in digital payments; we like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexi-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28921:1" rel="noopener">Nexi SpA (NEXI IM)</a>, where we see clear benefits from its M&amp;A, and we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paypal-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4747:1" rel="noopener">Paypal Holdings (PYPL US)</a> as a core holding</li>
<li>Digital wealth managers focus on the mass affluent; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/finecobank-banca-fineco-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21188:1" rel="noopener">Finecobank Banca Fineco (FBK IM)</a> stands out in Europe, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xp-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28619:1" rel="noopener">XP Inc (XP US)</a> is the leader in Brazil but looks over-valued and exposed to increased competition, in our view</li>
<li>Risks to our positive views on our themes includes slower than expected growth in digital payments, transactions and increased regulation on big data; a slower than expected global GDP recovery also could adversely impact bank fundamentals</li>
</ul>


The investor rotation into value focusing in on EM and DM banks; our key picks are Credicorp Ltd (BAP US), Turkiye Garanti Bankasi As (GARAN TI), Commercial International Bank (COMI EY) in EM banks, and UniCredit SpA (UCG IM), CaixaBank SA (CABK SM), and BPER Banca S.p.A (BPE IM) in Southern Europe banks
Exchanges and Big Data, the convergence; Intercontinental Exchange (ICE US) is strong on recurring revenues, and both ICE and S&amp;P Global Inc. (SPGI US) should deliver shareholder value creation from transformative M&amp;A
Potential for premium growth and returns in digital payments; we like Nexi SpA (NEXI IM), where we see clear benefits from its M&amp;A, and we see Paypal Holdings (PYPL US) as a core holding
Digital wealth managers focus on the mass affluent; Finecobank Banca Fineco (FBK IM) stands out in Europe, XP Inc (XP US) is the leader in Brazil but looks over-valued and exposed to increased competition, in our view
Risks to our positive views on our themes includes slower than expected growth in digital payments, transactions and increased regulation on big data; a slower than expected global GDP recovery also could adversely impact bank fundamentals


FinTech & Financial Investment Themes 2021

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing, Stock Spin-Off Investing

Richard Howe

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing

Stock Spin-Off Investing

Generate attractive returns by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the stock spin-off market.

Stock Spin-offs

Event-Driven

<ul><li>Last week, I noted that the second half of June is typically a weak period for the stock market.</li><li>Right on cue, the S&amp;P 500 sold off 1.95%. The good news is that July is typically very strong, as the chart above shows.</li><li>One other data point worth noting: this week’s selloff has already pushed CNN’s “Fear &amp; Greed” index down to 25, firmly into “extreme fear” territory. </li></ul>

Last week, I noted that the second half of June is typically a weak period for the stock market.Right on cue, the S&amp;P 500 sold off 1.95%. The good news is that July is typically very strong, as the chart above shows.One other data point worth noting: this week’s selloff has already pushed CNN’s “Fear &amp; Greed” index down to 25, firmly into “extreme fear” territory. 

United States

S&P Global Inc. provides clients with financial information services. The Company offers information regarding ratings, benchmarks, and analytics in the global capital and commodity markets. S&P Global operates worldwide.

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S&P Global (SPGI US)

Sustainability and ESG Indices: A Booming Ecosystem and New Investing and Trading Opportunities

Index rebalancing and reconstitution often creates a window of abnormal returns (and opportunity). For broad market indices, these effects are well...

Kyle Rudden

Options Weekly: Bears Take Cover: Earnings Hedges and Crash Put-Buying Define a Volatile Week

Defensive options positioning dominated the week of June 29. Put demand surged across financials, technology, and industrials. A handful of names...

ORTEX Market Intel

Carbon Footprint of Freight Transportation and Logistics and Other ESG Issues

The carbon footprint of global freight and logistics is large, growing, and a source of ESG risk for investors. Fortunately, firms like JD...

Kyle Rudden

FinTech & Financial Investment Themes 2021

Our key 2021 investment themes and ideas in EM and S Europe banks, exchanges and data providers, digital payments companies and digital wealth...

Victor Galliano

Weekly Update (MBGL, 441A, MEDXF)

Last week, I noted that the second half of June is typically a weak period for the stock market. Right on cue, the S&P 500 sold off 1.95%.

Richard Howe

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