Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
  <li>Sage is successfully transitioning to a subscription-based model, with Sage Business Cloud revenue growing 13% and cloud-native revenue surging 23% in the most recent fiscal year, driving high-quality recurring revenue.</li>
  <li>The company holds a strong position in the Small and Medium-sized Business (SMB) accounting software market, a segment increasingly digitizing operations, which provides a substantial runway for growth.</li>
  <li>Intense competition from cloud-native players like Xero and established giants like Intuit (QuickBooks) remains a key challenge, pressuring Sage to accelerate innovation and its own cloud transition to maintain market share.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  Sage is successfully transitioning to a subscription-based model, with Sage Business Cloud revenue growing 13% and cloud-native revenue surging 23% in the most recent fiscal year, driving high-quality recurring revenue.
  The company holds a strong position in the Small and Medium-sized Business (SMB) accounting software market, a segment increasingly digitizing operations, which provides a substantial runway for growth.
  Intense competition from cloud-native players like Xero and established giants like Intuit (QuickBooks) remains a key challenge, pressuring Sage to accelerate innovation and its own cloud transition to maintain market share.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>Support at $152.35-$153.70 on ACWI-US held, and we discussed last week- as long as this support holds, the multi-month consolidation appears healthy as ACWI-US works off excesses from April-May gains.</li>
<li>ACWI-US now displays a clean 2-month base breakout, MSCI EM (EEM-US) is reversing its 1+ month downtrend, and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) displays a 5.5+ month base breakout.</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
Support at $152.35-$153.70 on ACWI-US held, and we discussed last week- as long as this support holds, the multi-month consolidation appears healthy as ACWI-US works off excesses from April-May gains.
ACWI-US now displays a clean 2-month base breakout, MSCI EM (EEM-US) is reversing its 1+ month downtrend, and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) displays a 5.5+ month base breakout.


Time to Buy Global Tech Stocks (Lenovo, SAP); Metals/Miners Also in Focus; MSCI ACWI Clean Breakout

Owner and CEO, GR20 Research

Gregory Ramirez

Owner and CEO

Industry Research and Consulting Services

GR20 Research

GR20 Research provides industry research and consulting services

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>European software revenue growth slowed to 4.4% in Q1 2026, mainly due to tough comparatives, contract timing and company-specific issues. Large-cap vendors remained resilient, with solid growth and improving momentum. </li>
<li>North American software companies outperformed Europe, with like-for-like revenue growth recovering to 13.1% and reaching 24.3% among the ten largest firms, driven by cloud, cybersecurity and AI demand.  </li>
<li>Software M&amp;A accelerated in 2026, reaching USD 127bn by early June. Landmark deals and strong valuation multiples, especially in cybersecurity and AI, reflected sustained investor appetite.</li>
</ul>


European software revenue growth slowed to 4.4% in Q1 2026, mainly due to tough comparatives, contract timing and company-specific issues. Large-cap vendors remained resilient, with solid growth and improving momentum. 
North American software companies outperformed Europe, with like-for-like revenue growth recovering to 13.1% and reaching 24.3% among the ten largest firms, driven by cloud, cybersecurity and AI demand.  
Software M&amp;A accelerated in 2026, reaching USD 127bn by early June. Landmark deals and strong valuation multiples, especially in cybersecurity and AI, reflected sustained investor appetite.


European Software: Q1 2026 Takeaways – A Seasonal Slowdown

<ul>
<li>In Q2 2025, European software firms—particularly small caps—experienced a slowdown in revenue growth due to geopolitical uncertainty and US tariffs, while large-cap players remained resilient and even accelerated growth.   </li>
<li>US software continued to outperform European peers, with strong momentum driven by AI, cybersecurity, and digital banking, but growth is stabilising below the high levels of the low-interest rate era.   </li>
<li>Software M&amp;A is recovering strongly in 2025, with USD 111bn in deals closed year-to-date—driven mainly by strategic buyers. Private equity remains active, particularly in Europe, though below historical peaks.</li>
</ul>


In Q2 2025, European software firms—particularly small caps—experienced a slowdown in revenue growth due to geopolitical uncertainty and US tariffs, while large-cap players remained resilient and even accelerated growth.   
US software continued to outperform European peers, with strong momentum driven by AI, cybersecurity, and digital banking, but growth is stabilising below the high levels of the low-interest rate era.   
Software M&amp;A is recovering strongly in 2025, with USD 111bn in deals closed year-to-date—driven mainly by strategic buyers. Private equity remains active, particularly in Europe, though below historical peaks.


European Software: Q2 2025 Takeaways – Europe Weakens, but Not the Large Players

<ul>
<li>Software companies see a slow improvement in revenue growth, with Europe narrowing the performance gap. However, growth remains below post-lockdown levels, and a return to high double-digit rates is unlikely.  </li>
<li>The best-performing vendors are those focused on defence, large-scale data handling, AI infrastructure, cybersecurity, financial services digitisation, and modern accounting platforms. US firms still lead in absolute growth numbers.   </li>
<li>While the number of software M&amp;A deals above USD 200m has declined, total deal value is on track for a record year in 2025, driven primarily by strategic acquirers.</li>
</ul>


Software companies see a slow improvement in revenue growth, with Europe narrowing the performance gap. However, growth remains below post-lockdown levels, and a return to high double-digit rates is unlikely.  
The best-performing vendors are those focused on defence, large-scale data handling, AI infrastructure, cybersecurity, financial services digitisation, and modern accounting platforms. US firms still lead in absolute growth numbers.   
While the number of software M&amp;A deals above USD 200m has declined, total deal value is on track for a record year in 2025, driven primarily by strategic acquirers.


European Software: Q1 2025 Takeaways – Gradual Improvement

United Kingdom

Sage Group is a British multinational enterprise software company that provides integrated business management software solutions and services primarily for small and medium-sized companies. Their offerings include accounting and finance, ERP, payroll, HR, and payment solutions, along with cloud-based services like Sage Business Cloud, Sage Intacct, and Sage X3. The company was founded in Newcastle upon Tyne, England, in 1981.

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Sage Group (SGE LN)

Primer: Sage Group (SGE LN) - Jan 2026

Sage is successfully transitioning to a subscription-based model, with Sage Business Cloud revenue growing 13% and cloud-native revenue surging...

αSK Primers

Time to Buy Global Tech Stocks (Lenovo, SAP); Metals/Miners Also in Focus; MSCI ACWI Clean Breakout

Time to Buy Global Technology Stocks (Lite-On, Lenovo, $SAP, etc.); Metals/Miners Also in Focus $AYA $GDX $XME; MSCI $ACWI Clean Breakout; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

European Software: Q1 2026 Takeaways – A Seasonal Slowdown

European software revenue growth slowed in Q1 2026, while North American companies outperformed with strong growth driven by cloud, cybersecurity,...

Gregory Ramirez

European Software: Q2 2025 Takeaways – Europe Weakens, but Not the Large Players

European software firms face revenue growth slowdown in Q2 2025, while US software outperforms. Software M&A is recovering strongly with USD 111bn...

Gregory Ramirez

European Software: Q1 2025 Takeaways – Gradual Improvement

Software companies in Europe are closing the revenue growth gap with the US. M&A deals above $200m are declining, but total deal value is set for...

Gregory Ramirez

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Primer: Sage Group (SGE LN) - Jan 2026

Sage is successfully transitioning to a subscription-based model, with Sage Business Cloud revenue growing 13% and cloud-native revenue surging...

αSK Primers

Time to Buy Global Tech Stocks (Lenovo, SAP); Metals/Miners Also in Focus; MSCI ACWI Clean Breakout

Time to Buy Global Technology Stocks (Lite-On, Lenovo, $SAP, etc.); Metals/Miners Also in Focus $AYA $GDX $XME; MSCI $ACWI Clean Breakout; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

European Software: Q1 2026 Takeaways – A Seasonal Slowdown

​European software revenue growth slowed in Q1 2026, while North American companies outperformed with strong growth driven by cloud, cybersecurity,...

Gregory Ramirez

European Software: Q2 2025 Takeaways – Europe Weakens, but Not the Large Players

​European software firms face revenue growth slowdown in Q2 2025, while US software outperforms. Software M&A is recovering strongly with USD 111bn...

Gregory Ramirez

European Software: Q1 2025 Takeaways – Gradual Improvement

​Software companies in Europe are closing the revenue growth gap with the US. M&A deals above $200m are declining, but total deal value is set for...

Gregory Ramirez

European software revenue growth slowed in Q1 2026, while North American companies outperformed with strong growth driven by cloud, cybersecurity,...

European software firms face revenue growth slowdown in Q2 2025, while US software outperforms. Software M&A is recovering strongly with USD 111bn...

Software companies in Europe are closing the revenue growth gap with the US. M&A deals above $200m are declining, but total deal value is set for...