Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saigon-thuong-tin-commercial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:650:1" rel="noopener">Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial (STB VN)</a> will be deleted from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the close of trading on 17 March.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover is 4.2% and the one-way trade is US$21m. There are two stocks where passive trackers need to buy over 1 day of ADV.</li>
<li>There have been big inflows to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/market-vectors-vietnam-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:648:1" rel="noopener">Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM US)</a> over the last three months as the index has traded near its lows.</li>
</ul>



Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial (STB VN) will be deleted from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the close of trading on 17 March.
One-Way turnover is 4.2% and the one-way trade is US$21m. There are two stocks where passive trackers need to buy over 1 day of ADV.
There have been big inflows to the Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM US) over the last three months as the index has traded near its lows.


MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Deletion; Float & Capping Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hagl-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6632:1" rel="noopener">Hagl Jsc (HAG VN)</a> is an inclusion while An Phat Holdings (APH VN) and CEO Group (CEO VN) are deletes from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>There are a lot of float and capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of 12% and a one-way trade of US$45m.</li>
<li>There are a lot of stocks that have over 1 day of ADV to trade and there could be opportunities to enter/exit positions on a move in the stocks.</li>
</ul>



Hagl Jsc (HAG VN) is an inclusion while An Phat Holdings (APH VN) and CEO Group (CEO VN) are deletes from the MVIS Vietnam Index at the September rebalance.
There are a lot of float and capping changes that will result in one-way turnover of 12% and a one-way trade of US$45m.
There are a lot of stocks that have over 1 day of ADV to trade and there could be opportunities to enter/exit positions on a move in the stocks.


MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes

<ul>
<li>There are 2 additions and 1 deletion for the MVIS Vietnam Index at the upcoming rebalance at the close on 17 June. Plus capping and float changes.</li>
<li>The adds are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saigon-hanoi-commercial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17575:1" rel="noopener">Saigon - Hanoi Commercial (SHB VN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viet-nam-construction-impo" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17309:1" rel="noopener">Viet Nam Construction &amp; Impo (VCG VN)</a>, while Tien Phong Securities (ORS VN) is the deletion.</li>
<li>The largest passive outflows are on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/feng-tay-enterprise-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18329:1" rel="noopener">Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eclat-textile-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13209:1" rel="noopener">Eclat Textile Company (1476 TT)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are 2 additions and 1 deletion for the MVIS Vietnam Index at the upcoming rebalance at the close on 17 June. Plus capping and float changes.
The adds are Saigon - Hanoi Commercial (SHB VN) and Viet Nam Construction &amp; Impo (VCG VN), while Tien Phong Securities (ORS VN) is the deletion.
The largest passive outflows are on Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), Feng Tay Enterprise (9910 TT) and Eclat Textile Company (1476 TT). 


MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: Two Adds, One Delete, Capping & Float Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

Saigon - Hanoi Commercial Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

According to SHB, after many consecutive quarters of improvement, 3Q21 ROA and ROE hit 1.5% and 25.6% respectively, approaching the levels of Vietnam’s leading JS commercial banks.<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

According to SHB, after many consecutive quarters of improvement, 3Q21 ROA and ROE hit 1.5% and 25.6% respectively, approaching the levels of Vietnam’s leading JS commercial banks.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Saigon Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank (SHB VN/Buy)

Global Bank Equity Specialist, Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth

Global Bank Equity Specialist

Creative Portfolios

While we remain mindful of certain aspects of Vietnam’s Banking Sector, regarding Provisioning and Capitalization levels as well as other Balance Sheet concerns, we cannot be impressed by another strong PH Score™ quarter, and by the growth generated. Not as good as Pakistan, in terms of PH Score™ but in second place globally. We highlight two of the less expensive institutions.CTG <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vietnam-js-commercial-bank-f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:647:1" rel="noopener">Vietnam Js Commercial Bank F (CTG VN)</a> With a PH Score™ of 8.3, Vietnam JSCB of Industry and Trade commands robust Profitability progression, an expanding NIM, better Efficiency while Capitalization and Liquidity show discrete improvement. This bank has a more muscular profile than SHB though LDR is still too elevated.The shares are somewhat more expensive than we would normally pay for a bank. A FV of 12%, a PBV of 1.39x, and an Earnings Yield of 10% are not unattractive though given the growth underway. They trade above common-sense thresholds of 10%, 1x, and 10%, respectively.  However, these are not “out of sight” valuations and most lower-rated entities have nowhere near the growth that CTG possesses.SHB <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saigon-hanoi-commericial" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17575:1" rel="noopener">Saigon Hanoi Commericial (SHB VN)</a> With a PH Score™ of 10, Saigon Hanoi is progressing. Profitability is expanding with a fatter NIM and a lower CIR. Improvement is broad with advances in Asset Quality, Capitalization, Liquidity, and Provisioning. A “full house” if you like. Caveats stem from a high LDR and D/E, low coverage of NPLs, and still lowly Capital Adequacy and Liquidity Asset ratio levels. This is a softer profile despite the Score than many other Vietnam lenders.A FV of 10%, a PBV of 1.1x, and an Earnings Yield of 12.6% are not unattractive and reflect risk. They trade in close proximity to common-sense thresholds of 10%, 1x, and 10%, respectively.

While we remain mindful of certain aspects of Vietnam’s Banking Sector, regarding Provisioning and Capitalization levels as well as other Balance Sheet concerns, we cannot be impressed by another strong PH Score™ quarter, and by the growth generated. Not as good as Pakistan, in terms of PH Score™ but in second place globally. We highlight two of the less expensive institutions.CTG Vietnam Js Commercial Bank F (CTG VN) With a PH Score™ of 8.3, Vietnam JSCB of Industry and Trade commands robust Profitability progression, an expanding NIM, better Efficiency while Capitalization and Liquidity show discrete improvement. This bank has a more muscular profile than SHB though LDR is still too elevated.The shares are somewhat more expensive than we would normally pay for a bank. A FV of 12%, a PBV of 1.39x, and an Earnings Yield of 10% are not unattractive though given the growth underway. They trade above common-sense thresholds of 10%, 1x, and 10%, respectively.  However, these are not “out of sight” valuations and most lower-rated entities have nowhere near the growth that CTG possesses.SHB Saigon Hanoi Commericial (SHB VN) With a PH Score™ of 10, Saigon Hanoi is progressing. Profitability is expanding with a fatter NIM and a lower CIR. Improvement is broad with advances in Asset Quality, Capitalization, Liquidity, and Provisioning. A “full house” if you like. Caveats stem from a high LDR and D/E, low coverage of NPLs, and still lowly Capital Adequacy and Liquidity Asset ratio levels. This is a softer profile despite the Score than many other Vietnam lenders.A FV of 10%, a PBV of 1.1x, and an Earnings Yield of 12.6% are not unattractive and reflect risk. They trade in close proximity to common-sense thresholds of 10%, 1x, and 10%, respectively. 

CTG: Vietnam Opportunities: Growth of Risk Rather than Risk of Growth

Vietnam

Saigon - Hanoi Commercial Bank (SHB) is a leading Vietnamese financial institution providing a full range of commercial banking services to individuals, businesses, and institutions. Its offerings include retail banking, corporate banking, investment banking, debt and asset management, and international settlement services. SHB was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Hanoi, Vietnam.

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Saigon - Hanoi Commercial Bank (SHB VN)

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Deletion; Float & Capping Changes

There is one deletion from the index, plus a bunch of changes to float and capping factors. One-way turnover is 4.2% and passives need to buy over...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes

There is 1 addition and 2 deletions for the MVIS Vietnam Index. There are a lot of float and capping changes that will result in one-way turnover...

Brian Freitas

MVIS Vietnam Index Rebalance: Two Adds, One Delete, Capping & Float Changes

There are 2 adds, 1 delete, float and capping changes for the MVIS Vietnam Index to be implemented at the close on 17 June. One-way turnover is...

Brian Freitas

Saigon Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank (SHB VN/Buy)

According to SHB, after many consecutive quarters of improvement, 3Q21 ROA and ROE hit 1.5% and 25.6% respectively, approaching the levels of...

Mirae Asset Securities

CTG: Vietnam Opportunities: Growth of Risk Rather than Risk of Growth

Vietnamese banks continue to perform well on the PH Score. This is a tailwind. Valuations of these featured lenders are not stretched given trends...

Paul Hollingworth

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