Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Recent USD strength has weighed on EM’s relative performance. Given (1) strength in commodity prices (sans precious metals), (2) the potential for some backing-and-filling of the USD, and (3) MSCI EM price and relative strength support levels continuing to hold, we see recent weakness as a buying opportunity.  The MSCI BRIC index has reasserted its leadership status. In addition to China, fellow BRIC countries Brazil and India exhibit attractive setups, while Chile’sIPSA also presents opportunities. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations across the EM universe, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Recent USD strength has weighed on EM’s relative performance. Given (1) strength in commodity prices (sans precious metals), (2) the potential for some backing-and-filling of the USD, and (3) MSCI EM price and relative strength support levels continuing to hold, we see recent weakness as a buying opportunity.  The MSCI BRIC index has reasserted its leadership status. In addition to China, fellow BRIC countries Brazil and India exhibit attractive setups, while Chile’sIPSA also presents opportunities. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations across the EM universe, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Emerging Markets Strategy: Attractive Setups in China, Brazil, India, and Chile

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of May 8th. The aggregated short interest was USD19.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Samsung Electronics, SamsungElecMech, HYBE, LS ELECTRIC, OCI.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of May 8th. The aggregated short interest was USD19.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Samsung Electronics, SamsungElecMech, HYBE, LS ELECTRIC, OCI.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (May 8th): Samsung Electronics, SamsungElecMech, HYBE, LS ELECTRIC, OCI

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

In this report, we screen for stocks that are largely avoided by global emerging market active funds. We identify companies within the MSCI Emerging Markets Index that are held underweight by EM active funds and by less than 3% of the active fund population.To test whether avoiding these stocks has been a good strategy, we create an 'EM Unloved' portfolio that contains all the stocks from the screen, rebalanced monthly and back-tested over the last 7 years.The results show a significant underperformance of EM Unloved stocks against the benchmark MSCI EM Index, and avoiding these stocks has clearly played a part in the long-term outperformance of EM active funds against the benchmark.  With an average of 26% of the MSCI EM index largely avoided by active EM investors, it questions the logic of broad-based index strategies when it comes to emerging market exposure.

In this report, we screen for stocks that are largely avoided by global emerging market active funds. We identify companies within the MSCI Emerging Markets Index that are held underweight by EM active funds and by less than 3% of the active fund population.To test whether avoiding these stocks has been a good strategy, we create an 'EM Unloved' portfolio that contains all the stocks from the screen, rebalanced monthly and back-tested over the last 7 years.The results show a significant underperformance of EM Unloved stocks against the benchmark MSCI EM Index, and avoiding these stocks has clearly played a part in the long-term outperformance of EM active funds against the benchmark.  With an average of 26% of the MSCI EM index largely avoided by active EM investors, it questions the logic of broad-based index strategies when it comes to emerging market exposure.

EM Managers: Most Avoided Stocks - 2018 Update

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of May 8th. The aggregated holding was USD1,577.8bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD196mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), SKSQUARE, SK Hynix, LS ELECTRIC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of May 8th. The aggregated holding was USD1,577.8bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD196mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), SKSQUARE, SK Hynix, LS ELECTRIC.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 8th): Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), SKSQUARE, SK Hynix

South Korea

Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co., Ltd. manufactures a variety of electronic components used in computers, audio and video products, industrial electronics, and telecommunication equipment. The Company's products include multi-layer boards and capacitors, optical Pick Ups, deflection yokes (DY), keyboards, speakers, and light emitting diode (LED) products.

Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS)

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Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS)

Emerging Markets Strategy: Attractive Setups in China, Brazil, India, and Chile

Recent USD strength has weighed on EM’s relative performance. Given (1) strength in commodity prices (sans precious metals), (2) the potential for...

Vermilion Research

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

KRX Short Interest Weekly (May 8th): Samsung Electronics, SamsungElecMech, HYBE, LS ELECTRIC, OCI

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Samsung Electronics, SamsungElecMech, HYBE, LS...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EM Managers: Most Avoided Stocks - 2018 Update

In this report, we screen for stocks that are largely avoided by global emerging market active funds. We identify companies within the MSCI...

Steven Holden

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (May 8th): Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), SKSQUARE, SK Hynix

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)