AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BofA now sees ABF deficits of 7%/14%/19% in 2026–28, while Goldman is far more aggressive at 14%/34%/51% from 2H26 through 2028.</li>
<li>Ibiden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and ATS are all seeing AI, server-CPU and networking demand tighten advanced-substrate capacity, with new expansion increasingly backed by customer commitments.</li>
<li>The shortage is harder to solve than headline capacity additions imply because larger, higher-layer packages consume more processing time and qualify at lower initial yields.</li>
</ul>


BofA now sees ABF deficits of 7%/14%/19% in 2026–28, while Goldman is far more aggressive at 14%/34%/51% from 2H26 through 2028.
Ibiden, Samsung Electro-Mechanics and ATS are all seeing AI, server-CPU and networking demand tighten advanced-substrate capacity, with new expansion increasingly backed by customer commitments.
The shortage is harder to solve than headline capacity additions imply because larger, higher-layer packages consume more processing time and qualify at lower initial yields.


Why More ABF Capacity May Still Not Be Enough

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS)

<ul>
<li><em><strong>The core investment thesis of this insight is a pair trade (long Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and short Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS)) (SEMCO). </strong></em></li>
<li>My argument for the long-short trade is mainly due to two main factors. First, I think the valuations for Samsung Electronics is now more compelling relative to SEMCO.</li>
<li>Second, there are early signs of a potential slowdown in demand for AI infrastructure buildout by hyperscalers. In such a scenario, I think Samsung Electronics could perform better than SEMCO. </li>
</ul>


The core investment thesis of this insight is a pair trade (long Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and short Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS)) (SEMCO). 
My argument for the long-short trade is mainly due to two main factors. First, I think the valuations for Samsung Electronics is now more compelling relative to SEMCO.
Second, there are early signs of a potential slowdown in demand for AI infrastructure buildout by hyperscalers. In such a scenario, I think Samsung Electronics could perform better than SEMCO. 


A Pair Trade Between Samsung Electronics and Samsung Electro-Mechanics

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The memory giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, have driven the Korean collapse, as AI anxiety and competition concern takes hold. However, there's more to Korea than memory and AI capex.</li>
<li>Throughout last month's carnage, Korean earnings estimates continued to be upgraded - not only in tech but also in financials, retail, basic materials, energy and industrial services.</li>
<li>Based on strong growth, attractive valuations, healthy balance-sheets, robust earnings upgrades, we highlight 15 non-tech Korean companies. Companies from industrials, select household products, basic materials have the strongest growth forecasts.</li>
</ul>


The memory giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, have driven the Korean collapse, as AI anxiety and competition concern takes hold. However, there's more to Korea than memory and AI capex.
Throughout last month's carnage, Korean earnings estimates continued to be upgraded - not only in tech but also in financials, retail, basic materials, energy and industrial services.
Based on strong growth, attractive valuations, healthy balance-sheets, robust earnings upgrades, we highlight 15 non-tech Korean companies. Companies from industrials, select household products, basic materials have the strongest growth forecasts.


Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics announced that it will pay a special dividend of 1.3 trillion won for 4Q 2025.</li>
<li>Samsung Electronics had excellent results in 4Q 2025. It beat consensus sales and operating profit estimates by 4.8% and 20.1%, respectively in 4Q 2025.</li>
<li>The combination of the company beating the consensus sales and profit estimates and higher special dividends are likely to further boost the positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics announced that it will pay a special dividend of 1.3 trillion won for 4Q 2025.
Samsung Electronics had excellent results in 4Q 2025. It beat consensus sales and operating profit estimates by 4.8% and 20.1%, respectively in 4Q 2025.
The combination of the company beating the consensus sales and profit estimates and higher special dividends are likely to further boost the positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.


Samsung Electronics: A 20% Beat in OP for 4Q25 and a Special Dividend of 1.3 Trillion Won

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

South Korea

Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co., Ltd. manufactures a variety of electronic components used in computers, audio and video products, industrial electronics, and telecommunication equipment. The Company's products include multi-layer boards and capacitors, optical Pick Ups, deflection yokes (DY), keyboards, speakers, and light emitting diode (LED) products.

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Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS)

Why More ABF Capacity May Still Not Be Enough

ABF capacity is expanding, yet shortages may worsen. We examine why CPUs, bigger packages and customer-backed capex are tightening supply, and...

Mint Finance

A Pair Trade Between Samsung Electronics and Samsung Electro-Mechanics

The core investment thesis of this insight is a pair trade (long Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and short Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd....

Douglas Kim

Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Samsung Electronics: A 20% Beat in OP for 4Q25 and a Special Dividend of 1.3 Trillion Won

The combination of the company beating the consensus sales and profit estimates and higher special dividends are likely to further boost the...

Douglas Kim

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Why More ABF Capacity May Still Not Be Enough

ABF capacity is expanding, yet shortages may worsen. We examine why CPUs, bigger packages and customer-backed capex are tightening supply, and...

Mint Finance

A Pair Trade Between Samsung Electronics and Samsung Electro-Mechanics

The core investment thesis of this insight is a pair trade (long Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and short Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd....

Douglas Kim

Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

​KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Samsung Electronics: A 20% Beat in OP for 4Q25 and a Special Dividend of 1.3 Trillion Won

The combination of the company beating the consensus sales and profit estimates and higher special dividends are likely to further boost the...

Douglas Kim

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...