Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>'s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. </li>
<li>The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)</a>’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. </li>
<li>The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. </li>
</ul>



Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)'s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. 
The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. 
The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. 


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Apr 5th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD6.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We estimate the week on week changes of short interest to be -6.9% and highlight short interest changes in Eo Technics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Apr 5th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD6.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We estimate the week on week changes of short interest to be -6.9% and highlight short interest changes in Eo Technics.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 5th): Eo Technics

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Shinhan Financial / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bnp-paribas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:525:1" rel="noopener">BNP Paribas (BNP FP)</a> is looking to raise around US$680m via selling 3.5% of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinhan-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6978:1" rel="noopener">Shinhan Financial (055550 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>This will be the fourth selldown for the stock since the start of the year. It will also be the largest one of the lot, so far.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



BNP Paribas (BNP FP) is looking to raise around US$680m via selling 3.5% of its stake in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS).
This will be the fourth selldown for the stock since the start of the year. It will also be the largest one of the lot, so far.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Shinhan Financial Group Placement - Another Selldown, Momentum Is Strong but Deal Is Large

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread has narrowed from a high of 10.4% to the current 4.2%. </li>
<li>The narrowing spread can be attributed to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a> tender launch, which suggests likely China SAMR approval, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ibiden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16630:1" rel="noopener">Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) </a>giving up recent gains. </li>
<li>Like JSR, we expect China SAMR to allow JIC to withdraw its Shinko merger control filing. There is a good chance the tender launches before the guided late August start.</li>
</ul>



Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread has narrowed from a high of 10.4% to the current 4.2%. 
The narrowing spread can be attributed to the JSR Corp (4185 JP) tender launch, which suggests likely China SAMR approval, and Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) giving up recent gains. 
Like JSR, we expect China SAMR to allow JIC to withdraw its Shinko merger control filing. There is a good chance the tender launches before the guided late August start.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender State of Play

South Korea

Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co., Ltd. manufactures a variety of electronic components used in computers, audio and video products, industrial electronics, and telecommunication equipment. The Company's products include multi-layer boards and capacitors, optical Pick Ups, deflection yokes (DY), keyboards, speakers, and light emitting diode (LED) products.

Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS)

Samsung Electro Mechanics Co, Ltd. (009150 KS)

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity

The deal break risks remain low, with the China SAMR timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add.

Arun George

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 5th): Eo Technics

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week. We estimate the short interests to be USD 6.9bn and highlighted short interest changes in...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shinhan Financial Group Placement - Another Selldown, Momentum Is Strong but Deal Is Large

BNP Paribas (BNP FP) is looking to raise around US$680m via selling 3.5% of its stake in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS). In this note, we talk about...

Sumeet Singh

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Tender State of Play

The JSR tender launch materially lowers the China approval risk. The gross spread was narrowed from a high of 10.4% to the current 4.2%. The tender...

Arun George