Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung doesn’t provide guidance when it reports, but gives revenue an operating profit guidance ~2 weeks before reporting. But we have an officially non-official preview in Korean media. </li>
<li>2Q25 operating profit will be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. Consensus expects +1% QoQ. </li>
<li>Some positive news to counter balance this large disappointment – smartphone, HBM3E – I am skeptical any of these can lift profits in 2H25, revisit early 2026.</li>
</ul>


Samsung doesn’t provide guidance when it reports, but gives revenue an operating profit guidance ~2 weeks before reporting. But we have an officially non-official preview in Korean media. 
2Q25 operating profit will be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. Consensus expects +1% QoQ. 
Some positive news to counter balance this large disappointment – smartphone, HBM3E – I am skeptical any of these can lift profits in 2H25, revisit early 2026.


Samsung 2Q25 Official Leaks: Sharp Decline in Operating Profits, but It’s the Bottom. Really?

<ul>
<li>Lisuan new GPU is a first step, but performance far behind AMD/Nvidia. Loongson new server CPU looks good, close to Intel chip of 2021. Major bottleneck remains SMIC 7nm capacity.</li>
<li>Qualcomm looks close to qualifying Samsung’s 2nm to manufacture Snapdragon 8 Elite 2. This would imply a major yield breakthru for Samsung.</li>
<li>Microsoft ARM CPU Maia is in production, but its AI accelerator Braga seems delayed significantly – either performance or an architecture rethink.</li>
</ul>


Lisuan new GPU is a first step, but performance far behind AMD/Nvidia. Loongson new server CPU looks good, close to Intel chip of 2021. Major bottleneck remains SMIC 7nm capacity.
Qualcomm looks close to qualifying Samsung’s 2nm to manufacture Snapdragon 8 Elite 2. This would imply a major yield breakthru for Samsung.
Microsoft ARM CPU Maia is in production, but its AI accelerator Braga seems delayed significantly – either performance or an architecture rethink.


Chips News: GPU, CPU in China. Qualcomm Going to Samsung Maybe, Microsoft Accelerator Delayed.

<ul>
<li>US tightening the screws on Foreign-owned Semi production in China: Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC were exempted from import license. The risk of US removing Equipment license is known since 2022.</li>
<li>What’s the point? Negotiating tool in the ongoing US-China discussions? Increase uncertainty? Or maybe US unhappy about further Korean investments in China?   </li>
<li>Samsung has 35% of DRAM production in China, SK Hynix 40% of DRAM and NAND, TSMC a negligible 3% of total revenues. Samsung has kept upgrading capacity in China. </li>
</ul>


US tightening the screws on Foreign-owned Semi production in China: Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC were exempted from import license. The risk of US removing Equipment license is known since 2022.
What’s the point? Negotiating tool in the ongoing US-China discussions? Increase uncertainty? Or maybe US unhappy about further Korean investments in China?   
Samsung has 35% of DRAM production in China, SK Hynix 40% of DRAM and NAND, TSMC a negligible 3% of total revenues. Samsung has kept upgrading capacity in China. 


US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> has been range-bound since October 2024, its chart pattern echoing a flat EKG with brief spikes... <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/samsung-electronics-005930-ks-tactical-outlook-amid-rumored-phase-2-buyback-confirmation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we suggested to BUY on May 20th, now up +7%....</a>
</li>
<li>Still, maybe something is changing, the stock is about to reach a reversal point, it will pullback soon, but it may be a brief, buy-the-dip opportunity, possibly before a rally.</li>
<li>Our price and time models currently indicate there is considerable resistance to rally higher: this week may be the last one up before the pullback.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been range-bound since October 2024, its chart pattern echoing a flat EKG with brief spikes... we suggested to BUY on May 20th, now up +7%....

Still, maybe something is changing, the stock is about to reach a reversal point, it will pullback soon, but it may be a brief, buy-the-dip opportunity, possibly before a rally.
Our price and time models currently indicate there is considerable resistance to rally higher: this week may be the last one up before the pullback.


Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Daishin Securities

Daishin Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Fundamental overhaul underway; signs of progress set to take shape in 2H</li><li>Downside risks substantially priced in; time to focus on recovery potential</li><li>We reinitiate coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of W74,000</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fundamental overhaul underway; signs of progress set to take shape in 2HDownside risks substantially priced in; time to focus on recovery potentialWe reinitiate coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of W74,000Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS May 21, 2025) - Giant’s Stride Toward Change

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

Samsung 2Q25 Official Leaks: Sharp Decline in Operating Profits, but It’s the Bottom. Really?

Samsung's 2Q25 operating profit to decline by over 15% from Q1, Consensus expects +1%. Some positive news but skepticism about profit lift in 2H25.

Nicolas Baratte

Chips News: GPU, CPU in China. Qualcomm Going to Samsung Maybe, Microsoft Accelerator Delayed.

Lisuan's new GPU lags behind AMD/Nvidia, Loongson's server CPU competitive vs Intel, SMIC's 7nm capacity a bottleneck. Qualcomm may use Samsung's...

Nicolas Baratte

US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...

Nicolas Baratte

Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?

Samsung Electronics has been range-bound since Oct 2024, but since May 20th we suggested it could take off. Now the stock is short-term...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS May 21, 2025) - Giant’s Stride Toward Change

Fundamental overhaul underway; signs of progress set to take shape in 2H. Downside risks substantially priced in; time to focus on recovery potential

Daishin Securities

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Samsung 2Q25 Official Leaks: Sharp Decline in Operating Profits, but It’s the Bottom. Really?

​Samsung's 2Q25 operating profit to decline by over 15% from Q1, Consensus expects +1%. Some positive news but skepticism about profit lift in 2H25.

Nicolas Baratte

Chips News: GPU, CPU in China. Qualcomm Going to Samsung Maybe, Microsoft Accelerator Delayed.

​Lisuan's new GPU lags behind AMD/Nvidia, Loongson's server CPU competitive vs Intel, SMIC's 7nm capacity a bottleneck. Qualcomm may use Samsung's...

Nicolas Baratte

US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

​US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...

Nicolas Baratte

Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?

​Samsung Electronics has been range-bound since Oct 2024, but since May 20th we suggested it could take off. Now the stock is short-term...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS May 21, 2025) - Giant’s Stride Toward Change

Fundamental overhaul underway; signs of progress set to take shape in 2H. Downside risks substantially priced in; time to focus on recovery potential

Daishin Securities

Samsung's 2Q25 operating profit to decline by over 15% from Q1, Consensus expects +1%. Some positive news but skepticism about profit lift in 2H25.

Lisuan's new GPU lags behind AMD/Nvidia, Loongson's server CPU competitive vs Intel, SMIC's 7nm capacity a bottleneck. Qualcomm may use Samsung's...

US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...

Samsung Electronics has been range-bound since Oct 2024, but since May 20th we suggested it could take off. Now the stock is short-term...