Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After the market close on 9 September, it was reported that Hong Ra-hee is selling a 0.11% stake in Samsung Electronics (worth 1.94 trillion won) to her son Lee Jae-yong. </li>
<li>Her decision to transfer the shares directly to Chairman Lee rather than selling them on the open market is seen as a move to minimize the impact on the market. </li>
<li>After this transaction is completed, Lee Jae-yong's stake in Samsung Electronics will rise from 1.47% to 1.58%. </li>
</ul>


After the market close on 9 September, it was reported that Hong Ra-hee is selling a 0.11% stake in Samsung Electronics (worth 1.94 trillion won) to her son Lee Jae-yong. 
Her decision to transfer the shares directly to Chairman Lee rather than selling them on the open market is seen as a move to minimize the impact on the market. 
After this transaction is completed, Lee Jae-yong's stake in Samsung Electronics will rise from 1.47% to 1.58%. 


Hong Ra-Hee Is Selling 1.9 Trillion Won of Samsung Electronics to Her Son Lee Jae-Yong

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> gained 3.3% in September and its 2x Leveraged Index rose 4.6%, while combined long-ETF AUM remained broadly steady, declining 0.9%.</li>
<li>All seven long-leveraged ETFs recorded unit redemptions, with net outflows reaching KRW 200bn in September and continuing in early October.</li>
<li>In contrast, the inverse ETF’s unit count rose 90% and AUM increased 62%, despite the product losing 14.7% in September.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) gained 3.3% in September and its 2x Leveraged Index rose 4.6%, while combined long-ETF AUM remained broadly steady, declining 0.9%.
All seven long-leveraged ETFs recorded unit redemptions, with net outflows reaching KRW 200bn in September and continuing in early October.
In contrast, the inverse ETF’s unit count rose 90% and AUM increased 62%, despite the product losing 14.7% in September.


Samsung Elec (005930 KS): Long 2x ETF Outflows Persist as Inverse Product Attracts Assets

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, I revisit the growth in the quarterly operating profit/operating margins of Samsung Electronics in the past 16 years and compare them against their actual share price performances.</li>
<li>I remain moderately Bullish on Samsung Electronics since the first two pros (super cheap valuations and huge shareholder returns) outweighs the cons, in my view over the next 3-6 months.</li>
<li>Certainly, we are not in the 2nd/3rd round of the super AI semiconductor cycle. We are probably closer to the 7th/8th inning. Nonetheless, time seems to be running out. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, I revisit the growth in the quarterly operating profit/operating margins of Samsung Electronics in the past 16 years and compare them against their actual share price performances.
I remain moderately Bullish on Samsung Electronics since the first two pros (super cheap valuations and huge shareholder returns) outweighs the cons, in my view over the next 3-6 months.
Certainly, we are not in the 2nd/3rd round of the super AI semiconductor cycle. We are probably closer to the 7th/8th inning. Nonetheless, time seems to be running out. 


How Much Ahead Does Samsung Electronics' Share Price Look Forward Change in Operating Profit?

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>3Q26 prelim OP ₩107.4T (+20.0% QoQ): 0.7% below our ₩108.2T, 1–2% above a street bar that fell 7% since August. Revenue ₩195T is 2.6% light on the won.</li>
<li>The 2.4% fall was plumbing: ETF rebalancing, options expiry and the end of the ₩15T buyback, which absorbed ~76% of September's selling. Samsung fell less than the KOSPI.</li>
<li>BULLISH, TP ₩400,000 held (+53%). At 3.9x consensus FY27E, the market doubts 2028, not 2027. January's ₩55–75T could be five times the buyback that just ended.</li>
</ul>


3Q26 prelim OP ₩107.4T (+20.0% QoQ): 0.7% below our ₩108.2T, 1–2% above a street bar that fell 7% since August. Revenue ₩195T is 2.6% light on the won.
The 2.4% fall was plumbing: ETF rebalancing, options expiry and the end of the ₩15T buyback, which absorbed ~76% of September's selling. Samsung fell less than the KOSPI.
BULLISH, TP ₩400,000 held (+53%). At 3.9x consensus FY27E, the market doubts 2028, not 2027. January's ₩55–75T could be five times the buyback that just ended.


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 3Q26 Prelim – ₩107T Clears a Lower Bar; the Selling Was Plumbing

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>Most analysts expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> to post its fourth consecutive quarter of record operating profit, driven by ongoing AI infrastructure demand and tight memory suppliesA</li>
<li>The LSEG SmartEstimate points to a massive year-over-year jump in earnings—up from 12.17 trillion won a year earlier—with some brokerage forecasts hovering around 105 trillion won in total operating profit. </li>
<li>Near-Term flows around the October 8 print should be volatile owing to the convergence of preliminary guidance, semiconductor ETF rebalancing, options expiry, and the conclusion of Samsung's share buyback program.</li>
</ul>


Most analysts expect Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) to post its fourth consecutive quarter of record operating profit, driven by ongoing AI infrastructure demand and tight memory suppliesA
The LSEG SmartEstimate points to a massive year-over-year jump in earnings—up from 12.17 trillion won a year earlier—with some brokerage forecasts hovering around 105 trillion won in total operating profit. 
Near-Term flows around the October 8 print should be volatile owing to the convergence of preliminary guidance, semiconductor ETF rebalancing, options expiry, and the conclusion of Samsung's share buyback program.


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Q3 Earnings Release

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (SMSD LI)

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (SMSD LI)

Hong Ra-Hee Is Selling 1.9 Trillion Won of Samsung Electronics to Her Son Lee Jae-Yong

Hong Ra-hee is gifting her son Lee Jae-yong 2.6 trillion won ($1.9 billion) (11.158 million common shares of Samsung Electronics). The scheduled...

Douglas Kim

Samsung Elec (005930 KS): Long 2x ETF Outflows Persist as Inverse Product Attracts Assets

Positive performance kept long 2x leveraged ETF assets broadly steady despite continued redemptions, while the inverse product attracted...

Gaudenz Schneider

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 3Q26 Prelim – ₩107T Clears a Lower Bar; the Selling Was Plumbing

Samsung's first ₩100T quarter was in line; the 2.4% drop was ETF caps, options expiry and a finished buyback. At 3.9x street FY27E, January is the...

Mo Aziz

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Q3 Earnings Release

Samsung (005930 KS) is oversold and nearing support according to our model. Q3 guidance on Oct 8 will set the direction for next weeks. Buy-the-dip...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Hong Ra-Hee Is Selling 1.9 Trillion Won of Samsung Electronics to Her Son Lee Jae-Yong

Hong Ra-hee is gifting her son Lee Jae-yong 2.6 trillion won ($1.9 billion) (11.158 million common shares of Samsung Electronics). The scheduled...

Douglas Kim

Samsung Elec (005930 KS): Long 2x ETF Outflows Persist as Inverse Product Attracts Assets

Positive performance kept long 2x leveraged ETF assets broadly steady despite continued redemptions, while the inverse product attracted...

Gaudenz Schneider

How Much Ahead Does Samsung Electronics' Share Price Look Forward Change in Operating Profit?

In this insight, I revisit the growth in the quarterly operating profit/operating margins of Samsung Electronics in the past 16 years and compare...

Douglas Kim

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 3Q26 Prelim – ₩107T Clears a Lower Bar; the Selling Was Plumbing

Samsung's first ₩100T quarter was in line; the 2.4% drop was ETF caps, options expiry and a finished buyback. At 3.9x street FY27E, January is the...

Mo Aziz

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Q3 Earnings Release

Samsung (005930 KS) is oversold and nearing support according to our model. Q3 guidance on Oct 8 will set the direction for next weeks. Buy-the-dip...

Nico Rosti