Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>China escalates tensions with the US by imposing tariffs on American goods and launching antitrust probe into Google.</li><li>HTC's $250M XR deal with Google raises concerns in the industry over potential impacts on the market and competition.</li><li>Samsung Display's sales have dropped by half in the past 10 years, while Samsung looks forward to the 2025 launch of Galaxy S25.</li></ul>

China escalates tensions with the US by imposing tariffs on American goods and launching antitrust probe into Google.HTC's $250M XR deal with Google raises concerns in the industry over potential impacts on the market and competition.Samsung Display's sales have dropped by half in the past 10 years, while Samsung looks forward to the 2025 launch of Galaxy S25.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Feb-2025): Global server market, 4Q '24.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Weak results again in 4Q24. Weak outlook for 1H25 as Mobile, PC demand remains weak (ie DRAM, NAND, Display).</li>
<li>Samsung expects its “optimized” HBM3E to ramp from 2Q25.  HBM4 in 2H25. Logic 2nm production in 2026.</li>
<li>The stock is cheapish at ~8x 2025-26EPS but with a lack of catalyst, visibility, effectiveness of managements changes. Revisit mid-2025.</li>
</ul>


Weak results again in 4Q24. Weak outlook for 1H25 as Mobile, PC demand remains weak (ie DRAM, NAND, Display).
Samsung expects its “optimized” HBM3E to ramp from 2Q25.  HBM4 in 2H25. Logic 2nm production in 2026.
The stock is cheapish at ~8x 2025-26EPS but with a lack of catalyst, visibility, effectiveness of managements changes. Revisit mid-2025.


Samsung 4Q24: Weak Again, Weak Outlook, Lack of Catalysts on the Horizon

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics announced that it will revamp its executive compensation system to include treasury shares as incentives. Samsung has benchmarked TSMC in terms of paying treasury shares to its employees.</li>
<li>Samsung Electronics' decision to revamp its executive compensation system to include treasury shares as incentives aligns the interests of the shareholders along with the company's management.</li>
<li>Now that Samsung Electronics has incorporated stock based incentive system, it is likely that other Korean companies that could follow suit. </li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics announced that it will revamp its executive compensation system to include treasury shares as incentives. Samsung has benchmarked TSMC in terms of paying treasury shares to its employees.
Samsung Electronics' decision to revamp its executive compensation system to include treasury shares as incentives aligns the interests of the shareholders along with the company's management.
Now that Samsung Electronics has incorporated stock based incentive system, it is likely that other Korean companies that could follow suit. 


Samsung Electronics: Revamping Executive Compensation to Include Stocks - Benchmarking TSMC

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics stock has been an underperformer outright and also relative to Kospi200 as an overhang of catalysts has weighed on performance.</li>
<li>Implied vols are at the 88th percentile over the last 3 years and are at the top of their range relative to Kospi200.</li>
<li>We recommend 4 different ways to position in front of these catalysts and the large stock buy-back that was announced in November. </li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics stock has been an underperformer outright and also relative to Kospi200 as an overhang of catalysts has weighed on performance.
Implied vols are at the 88th percentile over the last 3 years and are at the top of their range relative to Kospi200.
We recommend 4 different ways to position in front of these catalysts and the large stock buy-back that was announced in November. 


EQD | Samsung Electronics – How to Position Amid a Plethora of Catalysts

<ul>
<li>In the past several years, one of the biggest risk factors on Samsung Electronics and other Samsung Group affiliates has been the huge inheritance tax payments by the Lee family.</li>
<li>Despite the weak share price performances of the four major Samsung Group affiliates, their consolidated equity increased by 31.4% on average from end of 2019 to end of 3Q 2024.</li>
<li>Once Lee family pays off the fifth installment in 2025, the market could look upon this situation more favorably due to reduced overhang associated with additional future inheritance tax payments.</li>
</ul>


In the past several years, one of the biggest risk factors on Samsung Electronics and other Samsung Group affiliates has been the huge inheritance tax payments by the Lee family.
Despite the weak share price performances of the four major Samsung Group affiliates, their consolidated equity increased by 31.4% on average from end of 2019 to end of 3Q 2024.
Once Lee family pays off the fifth installment in 2025, the market could look upon this situation more favorably due to reduced overhang associated with additional future inheritance tax payments.


Samsung Electronics: Trading Strategy Post Another Inheritance Tax Sale

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Feb-2025): Global server market, 4Q '24.

Global server market trends in 4Q 2024, with China imposing tariffs on US goods and launching antitrust probe into Google, Samsung gearing up for...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Samsung 4Q24: Weak Again, Weak Outlook, Lack of Catalysts on the Horizon

weak result and outlook for 1H25 due to weak PC, Smartphone, TV demand. Expects improvements with HBM3E and HBM4 in 2025, 2nm in 2026. Stock is...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics: Revamping Executive Compensation to Include Stocks - Benchmarking TSMC

Samsung Electronics announced it will revamp its executive compensation system to include treasury shares as incentives, better aligning the...

Douglas Kim

EQD | Samsung Electronics – How to Position Amid a Plethora of Catalysts

Samsung Electronics stock has underperformed due to catalysts, with high implied vols. Recommendations given for positioning ahead of catalysts...

John Ley

Samsung Electronics: Trading Strategy Post Another Inheritance Tax Sale

It is start of another year and that means another fat inheritance tax payment for Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and other Samsung Group affiliates.

Douglas Kim

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Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Tech Supply Chain Tracker (05-Feb-2025): Global server market, 4Q '24.

Global server market trends in 4Q 2024, with China imposing tariffs on US goods and launching antitrust probe into Google, Samsung gearing up for...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Samsung 4Q24: Weak Again, Weak Outlook, Lack of Catalysts on the Horizon

weak result and outlook for 1H25 due to weak PC, Smartphone, TV demand. Expects improvements with HBM3E and HBM4 in 2025, 2nm in 2026. Stock is...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics: Revamping Executive Compensation to Include Stocks - Benchmarking TSMC

Samsung Electronics announced it will revamp its executive compensation system to include treasury shares as incentives, better aligning the...

Douglas Kim

EQD | Samsung Electronics – How to Position Amid a Plethora of Catalysts

​Samsung Electronics stock has underperformed due to catalysts, with high implied vols. Recommendations given for positioning ahead of catalysts...

John Ley

Samsung Electronics: Trading Strategy Post Another Inheritance Tax Sale

It is start of another year and that means another fat inheritance tax payment for Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) and other Samsung Group affiliates.

Douglas Kim

Samsung Electronics stock has underperformed due to catalysts, with high implied vols. Recommendations given for positioning ahead of catalysts...