Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     </li>
<li>It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   </li>
<li>For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).</li>
</ul>


US – China: Restrictions on Semiconductors are relaxed. EDA tool (Cadence, Synopsys) already relaxed, Nvidia says export license will come, this implies that HBM can be sold to China.     
It’s really hard to “guess” what comes next as US restrictions on technology export to China are just one bargaining tool in much broader negotiations (trade deficit, fentanyl, etc).   
For Cadence and Synopsys, China is 12% of revenues. For Nvidia, China is US$ 30-35bn revenue in 2025 (15-17%).  Positive to Samsung, supplying HBM3 (Nvidia’s H20), GDDR7 (RTX PRO).


Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

<ul>
<li>ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) </li>
<li>But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. </li>
<li>The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.</li>
</ul>


ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible) 
But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and  Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away. 
The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.


ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

<ul>
<li>April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   </li>
<li>Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   </li>
<li>FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.</li>
</ul>


April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   
Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   
FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.


Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Fintech & EM-focused Analyst

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

United Overseas Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>UOI received much media attention when a minority shareholder group attempted to push the company to distribute its Haw Par shares and appoint a financial advisor to unlock shareholder value.</li>
<li>Although the Board dismissed the request due to the failure to meet statutory requirements, the ownership structure between UOI, UOB, Haw Par, and Wee family remains a valid concern.</li>
<li>UOI has underperformed the broader market over the past 5 years; the key to management is how it can grow from a mid-sized local insurer to a leading regional one.</li>
</ul>


UOI received much media attention when a minority shareholder group attempted to push the company to distribute its Haw Par shares and appoint a financial advisor to unlock shareholder value.
Although the Board dismissed the request due to the failure to meet statutory requirements, the ownership structure between UOI, UOB, Haw Par, and Wee family remains a valid concern.
UOI has underperformed the broader market over the past 5 years; the key to management is how it can grow from a mid-sized local insurer to a leading regional one.


United Overseas Insurance: The Samsung Family of Singapore?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Import tariff into the US: Korea 25%, Taiwan 32%. But the White house clarified: no Reciprocal Tariff on semiconductors.  </li>
<li>There are other exemption (pharmaceuticals, lumber, certain minerals not available in the US). But then Apple or Nvidia don’t import Semis from Taiwan or Korea. </li>
<li>They import iPhones from China / India or Servers made in Taiwan. Is it a little bug to be fixed? There’s an interesting loophole: 10% tariff on Singapore.  </li>
</ul>


Import tariff into the US: Korea 25%, Taiwan 32%. But the White house clarified: no Reciprocal Tariff on semiconductors.  
There are other exemption (pharmaceuticals, lumber, certain minerals not available in the US). But then Apple or Nvidia don’t import Semis from Taiwan or Korea. 
They import iPhones from China / India or Servers made in Taiwan. Is it a little bug to be fixed? There’s an interesting loophole: 10% tariff on Singapore.  


No Tariffs on Semiconductors – but Does It Matter?

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

United Overseas Insurance: The Samsung Family of Singapore?

Recent media attention on UOI due to minority shareholders' activism attempt; concerns over ownership structure, which resembles that of Samsung...

Alec Tseung

No Tariffs on Semiconductors – but Does It Matter?

US import tariffs on Korea and Taiwan are high, but no reciprocal tariff on semiconductors. Apple and Nvidia don't import semis from these...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Jensen Went to the White House, and to China

​US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

​ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nicolas Baratte

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

​Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

United Overseas Insurance: The Samsung Family of Singapore?

​Recent media attention on UOI due to minority shareholders' activism attempt; concerns over ownership structure, which resembles that of Samsung...

Alec Tseung

No Tariffs on Semiconductors – but Does It Matter?

​US import tariffs on Korea and Taiwan are high, but no reciprocal tariff on semiconductors. Apple and Nvidia don't import semis from these...

Nicolas Baratte

US eases restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, allowing for potential sales of HBM technology, positive to Samsung. China represents 12...

ASML's underperformance is a delayed reality check, but management's 2030 goals are plausible. Growth is slowing but will re-accelerate in 2H26....

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Recent media attention on UOI due to minority shareholders' activism attempt; concerns over ownership structure, which resembles that of Samsung...

US import tariffs on Korea and Taiwan are high, but no reciprocal tariff on semiconductors. Apple and Nvidia don't import semis from these...