Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung’s 12-high HBM3E qual at NVIDIA may slip to Oct–Nov. But tariff timing uncertainty still leaves room for a near-term demand spike.</li>
<li>Samsung’s 1c-based HBM4 is yielding better than expected, but it’s 30% pricier than Hynix’s. Tariff treatment of the Taylor fab could make or break its HBM4 competitiveness.</li>
<li>Too early to call HBM4, but Samsung’s HBM3E pricing plus tariff uncertainty could spark urgent NVIDIA buying — triggering a near-term volume spike before next-gen ramps.</li>
</ul>


Samsung’s 12-high HBM3E qual at NVIDIA may slip to Oct–Nov. But tariff timing uncertainty still leaves room for a near-term demand spike.
Samsung’s 1c-based HBM4 is yielding better than expected, but it’s 30% pricier than Hynix’s. Tariff treatment of the Taylor fab could make or break its HBM4 competitiveness.
Too early to call HBM4, but Samsung’s HBM3E pricing plus tariff uncertainty could spark urgent NVIDIA buying — triggering a near-term volume spike before next-gen ramps.


How Chip Tariffs Shake up Samsung’s HBM Pricing Play Based on Fresh Local Intel

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> 2Q earnings have been somehow disappointing for investors.</li>
<li>We don’t dissect the earnings details, as market reactions—regardless of headlines—almost always fall within the behavioral range defined by our model.</li>
<li>
What we see right now is FEAR: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics</a> was rallying hard, reached the tails area in our model, then retreated back sharply after the earnings.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) 2Q earnings have been somehow disappointing for investors.
We don’t dissect the earnings details, as market reactions—regardless of headlines—almost always fall within the behavioral range defined by our model.

What we see right now is FEAR: Samsung Electronics was rallying hard, reached the tails area in our model, then retreated back sharply after the earnings.


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook After Disappointing Earnings

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Daishin Securities

Daishin Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Large-scale Foundry deal signed; concerns over competitiveness start fading</li><li>Memory semiconductor margin also slated to improve in 2H25</li><li>TP raised to W88,000, considering potential upside to business competitiveness</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Large-scale Foundry deal signed; concerns over competitiveness start fadingMemory semiconductor margin also slated to improve in 2H25TP raised to W88,000, considering potential upside to business competitivenessContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS Jul 29, 2025) - Still Our Top Pick

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>OP pre-announced, the details aren’t inspiring. Margins decline in TV, Semi. Only Smartphone is resilient. 2H25 demand outlook is weak for TV, Smartphone.</li>
<li>Confident tone on HBM growth, qualifications, ASP increase. Several contradictions: Samsung endorses theory of HBM price pressure (how’s that positive?); HBM3E is already 80% of HBM revenue (where’s the upside?)</li>
<li>Consensus is revising up slowly, stock is going up sharply. This assumes a large turnaround in memory / HBM / Foundry. </li>
</ul>


OP pre-announced, the details aren’t inspiring. Margins decline in TV, Semi. Only Smartphone is resilient. 2H25 demand outlook is weak for TV, Smartphone.
Confident tone on HBM growth, qualifications, ASP increase. Several contradictions: Samsung endorses theory of HBM price pressure (how’s that positive?); HBM3E is already 80% of HBM revenue (where’s the upside?)
Consensus is revising up slowly, stock is going up sharply. This assumes a large turnaround in memory / HBM / Foundry. 


Samsung 2Q25: Poor Quarter, Poor Outlook for 2H25, Management Bullish on HBM / Foundry Catch Up

<ul>
<li>The A16 chip Samsung fabs is mainly for real-time inference in Tesla’s FSD cars, not data-center training, which remains dominated by Dojo and NVIDIA hardware.</li>
<li>If Tesla’s deal includes AI chips with HBM, it’s a major catalyst; if just A16, it’s not proof HBM yield issues are solved.</li>
<li>Tesla’s deal isn’t a sure sign Samsung’s HBM4 passed NVIDIA’s qual tests, but it’s a key reference boosting market hype—time to consider a Samsung long, SK Hynix short setup.</li>
</ul>


The A16 chip Samsung fabs is mainly for real-time inference in Tesla’s FSD cars, not data-center training, which remains dominated by Dojo and NVIDIA hardware.
If Tesla’s deal includes AI chips with HBM, it’s a major catalyst; if just A16, it’s not proof HBM yield issues are solved.
Tesla’s deal isn’t a sure sign Samsung’s HBM4 passed NVIDIA’s qual tests, but it’s a key reference boosting market hype—time to consider a Samsung long, SK Hynix short setup.


My Take on Samsung’s Big Foundry Deal with Tesla

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

How Chip Tariffs Shake up Samsung’s HBM Pricing Play Based on Fresh Local Intel

This post checks out how the new chip tariffs might boost Samsung’s 12-high HBM3E shipments and shake up the supply game.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook After Disappointing Earnings

Samsung Electronics disappoints investors with 2Q earnings, we see market reactions driven by fear as stock retreats sharply after rally. 2-3...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS Jul 29, 2025) - Still Our Top Pick

Large-scale Foundry deal signed; concerns over competitiveness start fading. Memory semiconductor margin also slated to improve in 2H25

Daishin Securities

Samsung 2Q25: Poor Quarter, Poor Outlook for 2H25, Management Bullish on HBM / Foundry Catch Up

Samsung poor 2Q, poor 2H outlook. Optimism on HBM growth and foundry catch up. Consensus expects that, stock trading at average PEx

Nicolas Baratte

My Take on Samsung’s Big Foundry Deal with Tesla

This post shares my take on Samsung’s big foundry win with Tesla, breaking down what the deal means for Samsung’s stock play.

Sanghyun Park

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How Chip Tariffs Shake up Samsung’s HBM Pricing Play Based on Fresh Local Intel

This post checks out how the new chip tariffs might boost Samsung’s 12-high HBM3E shipments and shake up the supply game.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook After Disappointing Earnings

​Samsung Electronics disappoints investors with 2Q earnings, we see market reactions driven by fear as stock retreats sharply after rally. 2-3...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS Jul 29, 2025) - Still Our Top Pick

Large-scale Foundry deal signed; concerns over competitiveness start fading. Memory semiconductor margin also slated to improve in 2H25

Daishin Securities

Samsung 2Q25: Poor Quarter, Poor Outlook for 2H25, Management Bullish on HBM / Foundry Catch Up

Samsung poor 2Q, poor 2H outlook. Optimism on HBM growth and foundry catch up. Consensus expects that, stock trading at average PEx

Nicolas Baratte

My Take on Samsung’s Big Foundry Deal with Tesla

This post shares my take on Samsung’s big foundry win with Tesla, breaking down what the deal means for Samsung’s stock play.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Electronics disappoints investors with 2Q earnings, we see market reactions driven by fear as stock retreats sharply after rally. 2-3...