Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Back on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/samsung-electronics-005930-ks-1-7-t-krw-block-deal-sale-where-to-buy-the-inevitable-pullback" target="_blank" rel="noopener">October 24th we forecasted</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>'s pullback. Samsung pulled back 1 week after, ended in the support BUY zone we predicted and rallied higher from there.</li>
<li>Now, fast-forward to December 8th, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> is getting very close to the previous top at 112,400. Our model says the stock is overbought. </li>
<li>Double top? Not necessarily, but in the short-term the stock is about to pullback again. Our analysis tries to identify when the pullback can happen and where to enter LONG.
</li>
</ul>


Back on October 24th we forecastedSamsung Electronics (005930 KS)'s pullback. Samsung pulled back 1 week after, ended in the support BUY zone we predicted and rallied higher from there.
Now, fast-forward to December 8th, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is getting very close to the previous top at 112,400. Our model says the stock is overbought. 
Double top? Not necessarily, but in the short-term the stock is about to pullback again. Our analysis tries to identify when the pullback can happen and where to enter LONG.



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook: The Stock Is OVERBOUGHT

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

<ul>
<li>Samsung is positioned as a global hub for the AI Supercycle, driven by a pivot to memory technology, and evidenced by a KRW 450T ($310 billion) local investment plan.</li>
<li>The Device Solutions division's Q3 2025 rebound (sales +19% sequentially) and an estimated 43.4% Fwd 2-Yr EPS CAGR support potential upside for the stock</li>
<li>The company has demonstrated a commitment to enhancing shareholder value by completing its 10T share repurchase program ahead of schedule and maintaining a consistent annual dividend payout through 2026.</li>
</ul>


Samsung is positioned as a global hub for the AI Supercycle, driven by a pivot to memory technology, and evidenced by a KRW 450T ($310 billion) local investment plan.
The Device Solutions division's Q3 2025 rebound (sales +19% sequentially) and an estimated 43.4% Fwd 2-Yr EPS CAGR support potential upside for the stock
The company has demonstrated a commitment to enhancing shareholder value by completing its 10T share repurchase program ahead of schedule and maintaining a consistent annual dividend payout through 2026.


[2026 High Conviction] Korean Mega Cap Investment: Samsung’s $310B Tech Spend, the AI-Momentum Trade

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Market eyed 25% top rate, but 30% is still punchy; &lt;100 people hit it, lower than before, giving big shareholders incentive to rotate back into dividends.</li>
<li>The new regime hits only companies with 25% payout last year and +10% YoY dividend: lower than the original draft, and the 10% bump is a solid positive.</li>
<li>Companies &gt;5tn KRW with ≥25% payout last year must boost dividends +10% YoY to get the tax cut; Samsung could add ~1tn KRW, potentially easing its pref discount.</li>
</ul>


Market eyed 25% top rate, but 30% is still punchy; &lt;100 people hit it, lower than before, giving big shareholders incentive to rotate back into dividends.
The new regime hits only companies with 25% payout last year and +10% YoY dividend: lower than the original draft, and the 10% bump is a solid positive.
Companies &gt;5tn KRW with ≥25% payout last year must boost dividends +10% YoY to get the tax cut; Samsung could add ~1tn KRW, potentially easing its pref discount.


Korea Dividend Tax Cut: Eligibility Criteria & Market Impact on Large Caps, Including Samsung Prefs

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>On 25 November, the Democratic Party of Korea confirmed that the cancellation of treasury shares will be made into law by the end of 2025.</li>
<li>Companies that buyback their shares (as treasury shares) will be required to cancel them within one year of the buyback. </li>
<li>There may be a LOOPHOLE if the company fails to cancel the treasury shares on time. Fine per director is only 50 million won and this may be too low. </li>
</ul>


On 25 November, the Democratic Party of Korea confirmed that the cancellation of treasury shares will be made into law by the end of 2025.
Companies that buyback their shares (as treasury shares) will be required to cancel them within one year of the buyback. 
There may be a LOOPHOLE if the company fails to cancel the treasury shares on time. Fine per director is only 50 million won and this may be too low. 


Confirmation of Cancellation of Treasury Shares To Be Made Into Law by End of 2025 and a Loophole?

<ul>
<li>AI-Driven KOSPI concentration necessitates a balanced, diversified portfolio (AI/Tech + Defensives) with a tactical hedge.</li>
<li>KOSPI's 84% YTD gain is narrowly led by Samsung and SK Hynix (45% of gains), raising concentration risk tied to the volatile global AI capex cycle.</li>
<li>The strategy is built by blending high-beta AI-linked technology exposure with lower-beta insurance and industrial stocks for ballast and stability.</li>
</ul>


AI-Driven KOSPI concentration necessitates a balanced, diversified portfolio (AI/Tech + Defensives) with a tactical hedge.
KOSPI's 84% YTD gain is narrowly led by Samsung and SK Hynix (45% of gains), raising concentration risk tied to the volatile global AI capex cycle.
The strategy is built by blending high-beta AI-linked technology exposure with lower-beta insurance and industrial stocks for ballast and stability.


Samsung, SK Hynix, Samsung F&M, Meritz: The Balanced AI-Momentum Korea Portfolio, and KOSPI Options

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook: The Stock Is OVERBOUGHT

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) rallied after its recent pullback, but it is now very overbought according to our model. This insight studies when...

Nico Rosti

[2026 High Conviction] Korean Mega Cap Investment: Samsung’s $310B Tech Spend, the AI-Momentum Trade

Samsung is leading the Memory Supercycle with a focus on memory technology, backed by a massive investment plan and strong financial performance,...

Jay Cameron

Korea Dividend Tax Cut: Eligibility Criteria & Market Impact on Large Caps, Including Samsung Prefs

This post looks into Korea’s new dividend tax cut, breaking down eligibility criteria and the potential market impact on large-cap names, including...

Sanghyun Park

Confirmation of Cancellation of Treasury Shares To Be Made Into Law by End of 2025 and a Loophole?

There may be a LOOPHOLE if the company fails to cancel the treasury shares on time. Fine per director is only 50 million won and this may be too low.

Douglas Kim

Samsung, SK Hynix, Samsung F&M, Meritz: The Balanced AI-Momentum Korea Portfolio, and KOSPI Options

Investors in KOSPI should consider balancing their portfolios with a mix of AI/Tech and defensive stocks to mitigate concentration risk from...

Jay Cameron

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook: The Stock Is OVERBOUGHT

​Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) rallied after its recent pullback, but it is now very overbought according to our model. This insight studies when...

Nico Rosti

[2026 High Conviction] Korean Mega Cap Investment: Samsung’s $310B Tech Spend, the AI-Momentum Trade

​Samsung is leading the Memory Supercycle with a focus on memory technology, backed by a massive investment plan and strong financial performance,...

Jay Cameron

Korea Dividend Tax Cut: Eligibility Criteria & Market Impact on Large Caps, Including Samsung Prefs

This post looks into Korea’s new dividend tax cut, breaking down eligibility criteria and the potential market impact on large-cap names, including...

Sanghyun Park

Confirmation of Cancellation of Treasury Shares To Be Made Into Law by End of 2025 and a Loophole?

There may be a LOOPHOLE if the company fails to cancel the treasury shares on time. Fine per director is only 50 million won and this may be too low.

Douglas Kim

Samsung, SK Hynix, Samsung F&M, Meritz: The Balanced AI-Momentum Korea Portfolio, and KOSPI Options

​Investors in KOSPI should consider balancing their portfolios with a mix of AI/Tech and defensive stocks to mitigate concentration risk from...

Jay Cameron

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) rallied after its recent pullback, but it is now very overbought according to our model. This insight studies when...

Samsung is leading the Memory Supercycle with a focus on memory technology, backed by a massive investment plan and strong financial performance,...

Investors in KOSPI should consider balancing their portfolios with a mix of AI/Tech and defensive stocks to mitigate concentration risk from...