Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

<ul>
<li>Amid the recent "bear market" in Korea in past two months, one of the noticeable trends has been the outperformance of many Korean preferred stocks relative to their common counterparts.</li>
<li>More investors are seeking value-oriented stocks amid increased debate about how much longer the global semiconductor cycle could rally.</li>
<li>The share prices of 15 major preferred stocks in Korea are down on average 6.5% in the past two months, outperforming their common shares counterparts (down on average 13.2%)</li>
</ul>


Amid the recent "bear market" in Korea in past two months, one of the noticeable trends has been the outperformance of many Korean preferred stocks relative to their common counterparts.
More investors are seeking value-oriented stocks amid increased debate about how much longer the global semiconductor cycle could rally.
The share prices of 15 major preferred stocks in Korea are down on average 6.5% in the past two months, outperforming their common shares counterparts (down on average 13.2%)


Korean Prefs Outperforming Common Shares Amid Recent Bear Market in Korea

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Samsung’s value-up confirms ~KRW 65–70T CAPEX and a hard 50% FCF payout, removing market overhang and signaling strong shareholder returns despite no explicit payout ratio.</li>
<li>With CAPEX ~KRW 70T and FCF ~KRW 170T, Samsung’s cash build could reach KRW 260–270T, giving the market a solid base to model DPS and structure narratives.</li>
<li>Samsung’s 50% FCF payout leaves ~KRW 75T for shareholder returns, implying ~KRW 5,500/share special dividend and total DPS ~KRW 7,000, or ~5% yield on preferred shares.</li>
</ul>


Samsung’s value-up confirms ~KRW 65–70T CAPEX and a hard 50% FCF payout, removing market overhang and signaling strong shareholder returns despite no explicit payout ratio.
With CAPEX ~KRW 70T and FCF ~KRW 170T, Samsung’s cash build could reach KRW 260–270T, giving the market a solid base to model DPS and structure narratives.
Samsung’s 50% FCF payout leaves ~KRW 75T for shareholder returns, implying ~KRW 5,500/share special dividend and total DPS ~KRW 7,000, or ~5% yield on preferred shares.


Samsung Just Dropped Its Value-Up Filing: Key Highlights and This Year’s DPS Estimate

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Two stocks explain the selling. Samsung and SK Hynix were 77% of September's foreign net selling and c.93% of January–July's. Outside them, foreigners are not leaving Korea.</li>
<li>
Timing and buyers matter. ₩102tn of the ₩135tn sold since May went in May–June; corporates bought ₩31.4tn in September. Buybacks are c.63% done and may finish by mid-October.</li>
<li>
The open question is FY27, not exports. Consensus profit sits c.24% above the Q3 run-rate. Samsung's expected 7–8 October prelims and post-buyback flows are the next tests.</li>
</ul>



Two stocks explain the selling. Samsung and SK Hynix were 77% of September's foreign net selling and c.93% of January–July's. Outside them, foreigners are not leaving Korea.

Timing and buyers matter. ₩102tn of the ₩135tn sold since May went in May–June; corporates bought ₩31.4tn in September. Buybacks are c.63% done and may finish by mid-October.

The open question is FY27, not exports. Consensus profit sits c.24% above the Q3 run-rate. Samsung's expected 7–8 October prelims and post-buyback flows are the next tests.


South Korea's Microchip Exports Are Booming. So Why Are Foreigners Still Selling Its Stock Market?

<ul>
<li>The one-ETF-per-desk rule matters because concentrated hedging flow can blow out single-stock futures basis, creating ugly contango and juicy cash-and-carry opportunities as one desk dominates futures buying.</li>
<li>Focus on pre-loading long-basis positions 1–2 months ahead, monitor contango closely, set short-basis trades, and capture the basis blowout once ETF flows hit.</li>
<li>ETF listing likely pushes June flows into September, creating a timing arb: short front months (June/July), long Sep, capturing curve steepening and widened calendar spreads.</li>
</ul>


The one-ETF-per-desk rule matters because concentrated hedging flow can blow out single-stock futures basis, creating ugly contango and juicy cash-and-carry opportunities as one desk dominates futures buying.
Focus on pre-loading long-basis positions 1–2 months ahead, monitor contango closely, set short-basis trades, and capture the basis blowout once ETF flows hit.
ETF listing likely pushes June flows into September, creating a timing arb: short front months (June/July), long Sep, capturing curve steepening and widened calendar spreads.


Front-Running Korea’s 2x Single-Stock ETFs: Basis Blowouts & Calendar Spread Arb Pre-June Launch

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics announced that it will pay a special dividend of 1.3 trillion won for 4Q 2025.</li>
<li>Samsung Electronics had excellent results in 4Q 2025. It beat consensus sales and operating profit estimates by 4.8% and 20.1%, respectively in 4Q 2025.</li>
<li>The combination of the company beating the consensus sales and profit estimates and higher special dividends are likely to further boost the positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics announced that it will pay a special dividend of 1.3 trillion won for 4Q 2025.
Samsung Electronics had excellent results in 4Q 2025. It beat consensus sales and operating profit estimates by 4.8% and 20.1%, respectively in 4Q 2025.
The combination of the company beating the consensus sales and profit estimates and higher special dividends are likely to further boost the positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.


Samsung Electronics: A 20% Beat in OP for 4Q25 and a Special Dividend of 1.3 Trillion Won

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Korean Prefs Outperforming Common Shares Amid Recent Bear Market in Korea

Amid the recent "bear market" in Korea in past two months, one of the noticeable trends has been the outperformance of many Korean preferred stocks...

Douglas Kim

Samsung Just Dropped Its Value-Up Filing: Key Highlights and This Year’s DPS Estimate

This post dives into Samsung’s just-released value-up filing, covering the key highlights and our estimate for this year’s DPS.

Sanghyun Park

South Korea's Microchip Exports Are Booming. So Why Are Foreigners Still Selling Its Stock Market?

Record chip exports, record foreign selling. The gap closes once you see who sold, when, and who bought: two stocks, mostly before exports peaked,...

Mo Aziz

Front-Running Korea’s 2x Single-Stock ETFs: Basis Blowouts & Calendar Spread Arb Pre-June Launch

This post looks into front-running Korea’s 2x single-stock ETFs: basis blowouts & calendar spread arb ahead of June launch.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung Electronics: A 20% Beat in OP for 4Q25 and a Special Dividend of 1.3 Trillion Won

The combination of the company beating the consensus sales and profit estimates and higher special dividends are likely to further boost the...

Douglas Kim

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