Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Most analysts expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> to post its fourth consecutive quarter of record operating profit, driven by ongoing AI infrastructure demand and tight memory suppliesA</li>
<li>The LSEG SmartEstimate points to a massive year-over-year jump in earnings—up from 12.17 trillion won a year earlier—with some brokerage forecasts hovering around 105 trillion won in total operating profit. </li>
<li>Near-Term flows around the October 8 print should be volatile owing to the convergence of preliminary guidance, semiconductor ETF rebalancing, options expiry, and the conclusion of Samsung's share buyback program.</li>
</ul>


Most analysts expect Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) to post its fourth consecutive quarter of record operating profit, driven by ongoing AI infrastructure demand and tight memory suppliesA
The LSEG SmartEstimate points to a massive year-over-year jump in earnings—up from 12.17 trillion won a year earlier—with some brokerage forecasts hovering around 105 trillion won in total operating profit. 
Near-Term flows around the October 8 print should be volatile owing to the convergence of preliminary guidance, semiconductor ETF rebalancing, options expiry, and the conclusion of Samsung's share buyback program.


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Q3 Earnings Release

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li><em><strong>Consensus estimates Samsung Electronics to generate sales of 200.6 trillion won (up 133.1% YoY) and operating profit of 106.6 trillion won (up 776.3% YoY) in 3Q 2026.</strong></em></li>
<li>Operating margin is expected to rise to 53.1% in 3Q 2026, up from 14.1% in 3Q 2025 and 52.2% in 2Q 2026. </li>
<li>It is estimated that about 60 to 80 trillion won is left for shareholder returns by Samsung Electronics in 2026.</li>
</ul>


Consensus estimates Samsung Electronics to generate sales of 200.6 trillion won (up 133.1% YoY) and operating profit of 106.6 trillion won (up 776.3% YoY) in 3Q 2026.
Operating margin is expected to rise to 53.1% in 3Q 2026, up from 14.1% in 3Q 2025 and 52.2% in 2Q 2026. 
It is estimated that about 60 to 80 trillion won is left for shareholder returns by Samsung Electronics in 2026.


Samsung Electronics 3Q 2026 Earnings Preview

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

<ul>
<li>In this insight, I discuss numerous gap trade opportunities involving Korean preferred and common shares in 4Q 2026.</li>
<li>Preferred companies' share price discount (relative to the common shares) on the 27 pairs below was 46.9% as of 1 October 2026, down slightly from 47.2% on 3 July 2026. </li>
<li>There has been an increasing number of pairs (such as Samsung Electronics pref) where the preferred shares are starting to outperform their common share counterparts in the past three months. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, I discuss numerous gap trade opportunities involving Korean preferred and common shares in 4Q 2026.
Preferred companies' share price discount (relative to the common shares) on the 27 pairs below was 46.9% as of 1 October 2026, down slightly from 47.2% on 3 July 2026. 
There has been an increasing number of pairs (such as Samsung Electronics pref) where the preferred shares are starting to outperform their common share counterparts in the past three months. 


Gap Trade Opportunities in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2026

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>We forecast 3Q26E OP ₩108.2T, above the consensus range ₩104–107T. Micron’s +30% NAND pricing skews risk upward to ₩117T; the won costs ₩6T. Ignore an FX revenue miss.</li>
<li>January’s ₩55–75T cash allocation is the real catalyst, not the 3Q26 prelim. Our FCF math points to ₩110T; share cancellation beats dividends for EPS. </li>
<li>Our forecasts is FY26E OP ₩373T, EPS ₩44,961; FY27E EPS ₩55,055. TP ₩400,000 held at 7.3x FY27E, the bottom of Samsung’s 10-year band. Maintain BULLISH.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 3Q26E OP ₩108.2T, above the consensus range ₩104–107T. Micron’s +30% NAND pricing skews risk upward to ₩117T; the won costs ₩6T. Ignore an FX revenue miss.
January’s ₩55–75T cash allocation is the real catalyst, not the 3Q26 prelim. Our FCF math points to ₩110T; share cancellation beats dividends for EPS. 
Our forecasts is FY26E OP ₩373T, EPS ₩44,961; FY27E EPS ₩55,055. TP ₩400,000 held at 7.3x FY27E, the bottom of Samsung’s 10-year band. Maintain BULLISH.


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 3Q26 Preview – The First ₩100T Quarter, Priced at 5x PER

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5 at up to 90% lower prices, Reflection AI unveiled its Beam open-weight model, and OpenAI's annualized revenue was below recent estimates.</li>
<li>OpenAI rolled GPT-6 out across ChatGPT, AWS added Zhipu's GLM-5.3 to Bedrock, TSMC's third-quarter revenue rose 50.9% YoY and Samsung guided record operating profit.</li>
<li>DeepSeek neared USD 12bn of new funding, Moonshot closed at about USD 50bn, Firmus withdrew its ASX IPO and SpaceX sought about USD 40bn of debt for Nvidia chips.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5 at up to 90% lower prices, Reflection AI unveiled its Beam open-weight model, and OpenAI's annualized revenue was below recent estimates.
OpenAI rolled GPT-6 out across ChatGPT, AWS added Zhipu's GLM-5.3 to Bedrock, TSMC's third-quarter revenue rose 50.9% YoY and Samsung guided record operating profit.
DeepSeek neared USD 12bn of new funding, Moonshot closed at about USD 50bn, Firmus withdrew its ASX IPO and SpaceX sought about USD 40bn of debt for Nvidia chips.


This Week in AI (Oct 4-10): Haiku 5.5's Throat-Cutting Prices; OpenAI Revenue Trails Expectation

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Q3 Earnings Release

Samsung (005930 KS) is oversold and nearing support according to our model. Q3 guidance on Oct 8 will set the direction for next weeks. Buy-the-dip...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics 3Q 2026 Earnings Preview

Consensus estimates Samsung Electronics to generate sales of 200.6 trillion won (up 133.1% YoY) and operating profit of 106.6 trillion won (up...

Douglas Kim

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 3Q26 Preview – The First ₩100T Quarter, Priced at 5x PER

Samsung prints its first ₩100T quarter on 7–8 Oct. We are in line at ₩108T; the Korean Won is the drag. At ~5x FY27E, January’s return tranche is...

Mo Aziz

This Week in AI (Oct 4-10): Haiku 5.5's Throat-Cutting Prices; OpenAI Revenue Trails Expectation

This week in AI: Anthropic cut prices by up to 90% with Claude Haiku 5.5, OpenAI's annualized revenue reached about USD 50bn, and Moonshot closed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Ahead of Q3 Earnings Release

Samsung (005930 KS) is oversold and nearing support according to our model. Q3 guidance on Oct 8 will set the direction for next weeks. Buy-the-dip...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics 3Q 2026 Earnings Preview

Consensus estimates Samsung Electronics to generate sales of 200.6 trillion won (up 133.1% YoY) and operating profit of 106.6 trillion won (up...

Douglas Kim

Gap Trade Opportunities in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2026

There has been an increasing number of pairs (such as Samsung Electronics pref) where the preferred shares are starting to outperform their common...

Douglas Kim

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): 3Q26 Preview – The First ₩100T Quarter, Priced at 5x PER

Samsung prints its first ₩100T quarter on 7–8 Oct. We are in line at ₩108T; the Korean Won is the drag. At ~5x FY27E, January’s return tranche is...

Mo Aziz

This Week in AI (Oct 4-10): Haiku 5.5's Throat-Cutting Prices; OpenAI Revenue Trails Expectation

This week in AI: Anthropic cut prices by up to 90% with Claude Haiku 5.5, OpenAI's annualized revenue reached about USD 50bn, and Moonshot closed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM