Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>As reported by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sanghyun-park" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:354" rel="noopener">Sanghyun Park</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> 's phase 2 buyback disposal plan appears to be virtually finalized (or will be finalized soon - not official yet).</li>
<li>As always, we’ll assess what our tactical models suggest about the trend from here—interpreted alongside the latest catalysts.</li>
<li>We have been monitoring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> for a while: the stock has been bottoming, then flat for a while, rallied modestly, now a minor pullback... <strong>time to BUY? <br></strong>
</li>
</ul>


As reported by Sanghyun Park, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) 's phase 2 buyback disposal plan appears to be virtually finalized (or will be finalized soon - not official yet).
As always, we’ll assess what our tactical models suggest about the trend from here—interpreted alongside the latest catalysts.
We have been monitoring Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) for a while: the stock has been bottoming, then flat for a while, rallied modestly, now a minor pullback... time to BUY?  



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Amid Rumored Phase 2 Buyback Confirmation

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If ₩500B comes from common shares, about 40M shares retire, raising Samsung Life and Fire stakes to 10.07%, requiring a ₩0.23T block sale to trim excess.</li>
<li>Slightly smaller than last time but still notable, the insurers acted fast in February. Expect a ~0.07% block trade soon, though price impact was mild previously.</li>
<li>Watch for preferred share outperformance as phase two buyback hits 0.66% common vs. 0.81% preferred (effective buyback assuming cancellation); similar dynamics may repeat in the larger ₩4T phase three buyback.</li>
</ul>


If ₩500B comes from common shares, about 40M shares retire, raising Samsung Life and Fire stakes to 10.07%, requiring a ₩0.23T block sale to trim excess.
Slightly smaller than last time but still notable, the insurers acted fast in February. Expect a ~0.07% block trade soon, though price impact was mild previously.
Watch for preferred share outperformance as phase two buyback hits 0.66% common vs. 0.81% preferred (effective buyback assuming cancellation); similar dynamics may repeat in the larger ₩4T phase three buyback.


Samsung Electronics’ Phase 2 Buyback Disposal Plan Virtually Finalized: Two Key Trading Implications

<ul>
<li>CSOP told Korean media this Sammy ETF product targets Korea's local retail traders wanting leveraged or short KOSPI exposure, especially Sammy, without using Korea’s derivatives market—essentially a cross-border retail play.</li>
<li>Korean retail’s insanely strong demand for anything leveraged, combined with limited domestic derivatives access, makes significant local inflows very likely—far from a moonshot.</li>
<li>TRS use doesn’t guarantee 1:1 futures buying—depends on broker hedging. But, with Samsung futures volume surging, heavy retail flows in CSOP ETF could cause contango and a basis arb opportunity.</li>
</ul>


CSOP told Korean media this Sammy ETF product targets Korea's local retail traders wanting leveraged or short KOSPI exposure, especially Sammy, without using Korea’s derivatives market—essentially a cross-border retail play.
Korean retail’s insanely strong demand for anything leveraged, combined with limited domestic derivatives access, makes significant local inflows very likely—far from a moonshot.
TRS use doesn’t guarantee 1:1 futures buying—depends on broker hedging. But, with Samsung futures volume surging, heavy retail flows in CSOP ETF could cause contango and a basis arb opportunity.


CSOP Sammy ETF + Korean Retail Leverage Frenzy = Contango Basis Arb Alert

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> already released 1Q25 data, we knew it was a decent quarter on good Smartphone sales. What we didn’t know is how bad Memory was. </li>
<li>Memory revenues declined sharply -17% QoQ on poor 4.4% OP margins: loss of HBM 2/3 revenues (China ban), no HBM3E, ASP pressure for Commodity DRAM and NAND </li>
<li>Smartphone is seasonally down in 2Q and HBM3E will start very slowly. A small upside possible on pre-tariff demand but the bigger negative remains Samsung low exposure to AI growth.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) already released 1Q25 data, we knew it was a decent quarter on good Smartphone sales. What we didn’t know is how bad Memory was. 
Memory revenues declined sharply -17% QoQ on poor 4.4% OP margins: loss of HBM 2/3 revenues (China ban), no HBM3E, ASP pressure for Commodity DRAM and NAND 
Smartphone is seasonally down in 2Q and HBM3E will start very slowly. A small upside possible on pre-tariff demand but the bigger negative remains Samsung low exposure to AI growth.


Samsung 1Q25: Already Reported Was Decent, 2Q / 2H Outlook Uninspiring. The Stock Will Remain Cheap

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has dropped to the bottom of its 10-year range.</li>
<li>The percentage of global funds invested has fallen from 32.6% to 23.5% over the past 12-months.</li>
<li>Key Growth investors from Schroders to Templeton exit the stock, leaving an investor base largely comprised of Value oriented funds.</li>
</ul>


Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has dropped to the bottom of its 10-year range.
The percentage of global funds invested has fallen from 32.6% to 23.5% over the past 12-months.
Key Growth investors from Schroders to Templeton exit the stock, leaving an investor base largely comprised of Value oriented funds.


Samsung Electronics:  Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Amid Rumored Phase 2 Buyback Confirmation

Tactical outlook and analysis of Samsung Electronics’ trend patterns—and whether it’s time to buy—amid rumors that Phase 2 of the buyback disposal...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics’ Phase 2 Buyback Disposal Plan Virtually Finalized: Two Key Trading Implications

This post covers the virtual finalization of Samsung Electronics’ Phase 2 buyback disposal plan and highlights two key trading implications.

Sanghyun Park

CSOP Sammy ETF + Korean Retail Leverage Frenzy = Contango Basis Arb Alert

This post covers CSOP Sammy ETF and Korean retail’s wild appetite for leveraged plays — time to gear up for a juicy basis arb if contango pops off.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung 1Q25: Already Reported Was Decent, 2Q / 2H Outlook Uninspiring. The Stock Will Remain Cheap

Samsung Electronics had a decent quarter with good smartphone sales, but suffered a sharp decline in memory revenues. Upside potential in pre...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics: Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom

Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has significantly decreased over the past year, with key growth investors exiting the stock...

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Amid Rumored Phase 2 Buyback Confirmation

Tactical outlook and analysis of Samsung Electronics’ trend patterns—and whether it’s time to buy—amid rumors that Phase 2 of the buyback disposal...

Nico Rosti

Samsung Electronics’ Phase 2 Buyback Disposal Plan Virtually Finalized: Two Key Trading Implications

This post covers the virtual finalization of Samsung Electronics’ Phase 2 buyback disposal plan and highlights two key trading implications.

Sanghyun Park

CSOP Sammy ETF + Korean Retail Leverage Frenzy = Contango Basis Arb Alert

This post covers CSOP Sammy ETF and Korean retail’s wild appetite for leveraged plays — time to gear up for a juicy basis arb if contango pops off.

Sanghyun Park

Samsung 1Q25: Already Reported Was Decent, 2Q / 2H Outlook Uninspiring. The Stock Will Remain Cheap

​Samsung Electronics had a decent quarter with good smartphone sales, but suffered a sharp decline in memory revenues. Upside potential in pre...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Electronics: Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom

​Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has significantly decreased over the past year, with key growth investors exiting the stock...

Steven Holden

Samsung Electronics had a decent quarter with good smartphone sales, but suffered a sharp decline in memory revenues. Upside potential in pre...

Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has significantly decreased over the past year, with key growth investors exiting the stock...