Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss some of the key beneficiaries in Korea that could actually stand to gain from such export restrictions. </li>
<li>We also discuss other Korean companies that could be negatively impacted by this move by the Chinese government. </li>
<li>Despite the uncertainties related to China’s export restrictions of rare earths minerals, we do not expect sudden collapse of the entire semiconductor and EVs value-chain in Korea.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss some of the key beneficiaries in Korea that could actually stand to gain from such export restrictions. 
We also discuss other Korean companies that could be negatively impacted by this move by the Chinese government. 
Despite the uncertainties related to China’s export restrictions of rare earths minerals, we do not expect sudden collapse of the entire semiconductor and EVs value-chain in Korea.


China's Export Restrictions on Rare Earth Minerals - Key Impact on Korean Companies

<ul>
<li>Three major reasons why Samsung Electronics is our 2025 high conviction pick include attractive valuations, reduced concerns about inheritance tax overhang, and higher likely total shareholder returns.</li>
<li>Given that 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, this reduced overhang could act as a positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.</li>
<li>Pressures on Samsung to announce material improvement to shareholder returns are coming not just from existing shareholders but also from the Korean government due to Korea Corporate Value Up program.</li>
</ul>


Three major reasons why Samsung Electronics is our 2025 high conviction pick include attractive valuations, reduced concerns about inheritance tax overhang, and higher likely total shareholder returns.
Given that 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, this reduced overhang could act as a positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.
Pressures on Samsung to announce material improvement to shareholder returns are coming not just from existing shareholders but also from the Korean government due to Korea Corporate Value Up program.


2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>1Q25 better than Consensus by a good margin, guided Operating Profit KRW 6.6tn versus Consensus 5.3tn. Better Smartphone and Memory price. Risk of demand boosted ahead of US tariffs. </li>
<li>Consensus expects sequential growth from 1Q to 4Q25 on better memory prices and HBM3E contribution (late, small, but finally). </li>
<li>The stock is cheap and outperforming, flat YTD and flat since the market correction started mid-Feb-25. Also outperforming SK Hynix. Main risk is AI demand outlook.</li>
</ul>


1Q25 better than Consensus by a good margin, guided Operating Profit KRW 6.6tn versus Consensus 5.3tn. Better Smartphone and Memory price. Risk of demand boosted ahead of US tariffs. 
Consensus expects sequential growth from 1Q to 4Q25 on better memory prices and HBM3E contribution (late, small, but finally). 
The stock is cheap and outperforming, flat YTD and flat since the market correction started mid-Feb-25. Also outperforming SK Hynix. Main risk is AI demand outlook.


Samsung Elec Better 1Q25 on Smartphone. 2-4Q25 Upside Due to Memory Price Recovery

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The FSS will review the subsidiary approval, with final approval expected from the FSC by early April. Market signals suggest a near-100% chance of Samsung Life getting the green light.</li>
<li>Samsung’s moves post-Lee Jae-yong’s Feb 3rd ruling signal a major pivot, setting up aggressive value-up plays across Samsung Life, Samsung Electronics, and Samsung C&amp;T.</li>
<li>Shoring up Samsung Life’s finances triggers a domino effect, positioning Samsung Electronics and Samsung C&amp;T to follow with their own shareholder-friendly moves.</li>
</ul>


The FSS will review the subsidiary approval, with final approval expected from the FSC by early April. Market signals suggest a near-100% chance of Samsung Life getting the green light.
Samsung’s moves post-Lee Jae-yong’s Feb 3rd ruling signal a major pivot, setting up aggressive value-up plays across Samsung Life, Samsung Electronics, and Samsung C&amp;T.
Shoring up Samsung Life’s finances triggers a domino effect, positioning Samsung Electronics and Samsung C&amp;T to follow with their own shareholder-friendly moves.


Samsung Life’s Official Move to Make Fire a Subsidiary: A Value-Up Play for Samsung's Big Three

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Chosun reports that some Samsung affiliates are exploring tax-free dividends at the operational level, with execs reportedly briefed on the idea.</li>
<li>Surprisingly, regulators and politicians haven't objected to tax-free dividends, which ironically align with the value-up policy. The delay in Samsung's value-up announcements may be due to this decision.</li>
<li>It’s unclear if Samsung Electronics and Life will drop tax-free dividends, but if regulators approve, they could introduce it suddenly in their value-up updates, especially with Lee Jae-yong’s cash crunch.</li>
</ul>


Chosun reports that some Samsung affiliates are exploring tax-free dividends at the operational level, with execs reportedly briefed on the idea.
Surprisingly, regulators and politicians haven't objected to tax-free dividends, which ironically align with the value-up policy. The delay in Samsung's value-up announcements may be due to this decision.
It’s unclear if Samsung Electronics and Life will drop tax-free dividends, but if regulators approve, they could introduce it suddenly in their value-up updates, especially with Lee Jae-yong’s cash crunch.


The Hot Chatter in the Local Market: Tax-Free Dividends – Is Samsung In?

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

China's Export Restrictions on Rare Earth Minerals - Key Impact on Korean Companies

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2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics

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Samsung Elec Better 1Q25 on Smartphone. 2-4Q25 Upside Due to Memory Price Recovery

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This post takes a dive into the hot topic in the local market: tax-free dividends – Will Samsung go for tax-free dividends?

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Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China's Export Restrictions on Rare Earth Minerals - Key Impact on Korean Companies

Despite the uncertainties related to China’s export restrictions of rare earths minerals, we do not expect sudden collapse of the entire...

Douglas Kim

2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics

A BIG relief rally on Samsung Electronics likely next week. Trump administration just announced that smartphones, computers, semiconductor devices,...

Douglas Kim

Samsung Elec Better 1Q25 on Smartphone. 2-4Q25 Upside Due to Memory Price Recovery

​Samsung's 1Q25 results beat consensus, guided higher operating profit. Expecting growth in 4Q25 with better memory prices. Stock cheap and...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung Life’s Official Move to Make Fire a Subsidiary: A Value-Up Play for Samsung's Big Three

Samsung Life's official application to incorporate Samsung Fire as a subsidiary: A value-up play for Samsung's top 3 companies: Samsung Life,...

Sanghyun Park

The Hot Chatter in the Local Market: Tax-Free Dividends – Is Samsung In?

This post takes a dive into the hot topic in the local market: tax-free dividends – Will Samsung go for tax-free dividends?

Sanghyun Park

Samsung's 1Q25 results beat consensus, guided higher operating profit. Expecting growth in 4Q25 with better memory prices. Stock cheap and...