Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.</li>
<li>I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.</li>
<li>I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.</li>
</ul>


The market's reaction to Samsung Fire's stake sale seems overhyped. Given past share sales, Life may outperform Fire as this momentum unfolds.
I don’t see SDS merging with Samsung Electronics. It lacks synergy and could stir up PR issues. If Sammy’s stock stalls, Lee Jae-yong might sell more of his SDS stake.
I’m still bullish on Sammy prefs. If the tax reform passes, a special dividend, not a buyback, will be the cleanest way for Samsung to address inheritance tax.


My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 1Q25 outlook is expected to see a 0-5% decline quarter-over-quarter due to the recent earthquake in southern Taiwan.  </li>
<li>Factors such as increased demand related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>  iPhone production and subsidies for China's electronics industry are expected to boost Novatek's output in 1Q25.</li>
<li>US President Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Taiwan's increasing dominance in the semiconductor manufacturing sector.</li>
</ul>


The 1Q25 outlook is expected to see a 0-5% decline quarter-over-quarter due to the recent earthquake in southern Taiwan.  
Factors such as increased demand related to Apple (AAPL US)  iPhone production and subsidies for China's electronics industry are expected to boost Novatek's output in 1Q25.
US President Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Taiwan's increasing dominance in the semiconductor manufacturing sector.


Novatek (3034.TT): Earthquake Affecting 1Q25 Outlook; Benefited by Subsidies for China's Electronics

<ul>
<li>SDS seems to wait until after Samsung Electronics and C&amp;T announce their value-up plans. Key dates: JPM IR event on 21st and Board meeting on Feb 18.</li>
<li>I think they’re leaning toward a special dividend instead of increasing the base payout, based on the tone during our chat.</li>
<li>The prosecutor’s third-instance appeal likely won’t delay the value-up announcement, as it usually takes a year for a decision, and is unlikely to affect JY Lee or Samsung’s plans.</li>
</ul>


SDS seems to wait until after Samsung Electronics and C&amp;T announce their value-up plans. Key dates: JPM IR event on 21st and Board meeting on Feb 18.
I think they’re leaning toward a special dividend instead of increasing the base payout, based on the tone during our chat.
The prosecutor’s third-instance appeal likely won’t delay the value-up announcement, as it usually takes a year for a decision, and is unlikely to affect JY Lee or Samsung’s plans.


Sharing Intel from IR on the Growing Market Interest in Samsung SDS's Special Dividend

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q125 revenues of $11.7 billion, up 18% YoY, up 15% QoQ and marginally above the high end of the guided range. This represented the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue</li>
<li>In December, Snapdragon X Series had more than 10% share of the greater than $800 Windows laptops in U.S. retail.</li>
<li>A recent hire suggests Qualcomm has an ace up their sleeve and that they are poised to launch yet another diversification gambit</li>
</ul>


Q125 revenues of $11.7 billion, up 18% YoY, up 15% QoQ and marginally above the high end of the guided range. This represented the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
In December, Snapdragon X Series had more than 10% share of the greater than $800 Windows laptops in U.S. retail.
A recent hire suggests Qualcomm has an ace up their sleeve and that they are poised to launch yet another diversification gambit


Qualcomm Q125. Firing On All Cylinders & An Ace Up Their Sleeve...

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.</li>
<li>In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.</li>
<li>Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.</li>
</ul>


Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.
In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.
Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.


Tokyo Electron (TEL):  Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

Samsung Life and Fire just pulled the trigger on offloading Sammy Electronics shares post-close. Life’s dumping 4.25M shares (KRW 236.4B), trimming...

Sanghyun Park

Novatek (3034.TT): Earthquake Affecting 1Q25 Outlook; Benefited by Subsidies for China's Electronics

1Q25 outlook for Novatek expected to decline 0-5% due to Taiwan earthquake, but boosted by Apple demand and China subsidies. Trump unhappy with...

Patrick Liao

Qualcomm Q125. Firing On All Cylinders & An Ace Up Their Sleeve...

A recent hire suggests Qualcomm has an ace up their sleeve and that they are poised to launch yet another diversification gambit. Now what could...

William Keating

Tokyo Electron (TEL): Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

My Take on the Three Scenarios that Sammy Buyback Stirred up in the Market Today

Samsung Life and Fire just pulled the trigger on offloading Sammy Electronics shares post-close. Life’s dumping 4.25M shares (KRW 236.4B), trimming...

Sanghyun Park

Novatek (3034.TT): Earthquake Affecting 1Q25 Outlook; Benefited by Subsidies for China's Electronics

​1Q25 outlook for Novatek expected to decline 0-5% due to Taiwan earthquake, but boosted by Apple demand and China subsidies. Trump unhappy with...

Patrick Liao

Sharing Intel from IR on the Growing Market Interest in Samsung SDS's Special Dividend

This post shares insights obtained through IR today regarding the growing market interest in Samsung SDS's special dividend.

Sanghyun Park

Qualcomm Q125. Firing On All Cylinders & An Ace Up Their Sleeve...

A recent hire suggests Qualcomm has an ace up their sleeve and that they are poised to launch yet another diversification gambit. Now what could...

William Keating

Tokyo Electron (TEL): Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

​Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Nicolas Baratte

1Q25 outlook for Novatek expected to decline 0-5% due to Taiwan earthquake, but boosted by Apple demand and China subsidies. Trump unhappy with...

Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...