Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.</li>
<li>A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.</li>
<li>Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.</li>
</ul>


Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.
A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.
Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution (373220 KS)</a> recent result is fantastic and made the share price bounce up. </li>
<li>EV makers in the US are renegotiating for a claim in the AMPC that would reduce <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lg-energy-solution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33464:1" rel="noopener">LG Energy Solution</a>'s (373220 KS) margin. Bear in mind the AMPC has almost 100% margin. </li>
<li>Compared against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a> , which is less reliant on AMPC and a more profitable company, LGES pales in comparison. </li>
</ul>



LG Energy Solution (373220 KS) recent result is fantastic and made the share price bounce up. 
EV makers in the US are renegotiating for a claim in the AMPC that would reduce LG Energy Solution's (373220 KS) margin. Bear in mind the AMPC has almost 100% margin. 
Compared against Samsung SDI (006400 KS) , which is less reliant on AMPC and a more profitable company, LGES pales in comparison. 


<ul>
<li>Rather than going back to profit on Q2 this year, we think it is more likely that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a> will be profitable in Q3 this year. </li>
<li>It will involve around a 70% utilization rate in the EV battery plant, maximizing US AMPC, and a higher contribution from higher-margin batteries for data centers. </li>
<li>The current share price weakness is a buying opportunity but investors do not need to rush, build your positions slowly and carefully. </li>
</ul>


Rather than going back to profit on Q2 this year, we think it is more likely that Samsung SDI (006400 KS) will be profitable in Q3 this year. 
It will involve around a 70% utilization rate in the EV battery plant, maximizing US AMPC, and a higher contribution from higher-margin batteries for data centers. 
The current share price weakness is a buying opportunity but investors do not need to rush, build your positions slowly and carefully. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a> results came out strong and indicated a real turnaround potential that has started in 4Q25, thanks to the shift from EV battery to ESS. </li>
<li>SDI is a beneficiary of the massive surge in AI capex spending, in addition to its EV battery business that recently won a mandate from Mercedez. </li>
<li>There could be an additional USD 315 million from AMPC on 2H26 from SDI's operation in the US through its JV with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stellantis-nv-847415d2-edbe-4b97-b9c9-bece87ed6f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27920:1" rel="noopener">Stellantis NV (STLAM IM)</a> </li>
</ul>



Samsung SDI (006400 KS) results came out strong and indicated a real turnaround potential that has started in 4Q25, thanks to the shift from EV battery to ESS. 
SDI is a beneficiary of the massive surge in AI capex spending, in addition to its EV battery business that recently won a mandate from Mercedez. 
There could be an additional USD 315 million from AMPC on 2H26 from SDI's operation in the US through its JV with Stellantis NV (STLAM IM) 


Samsung SDI (006400): Turnaround and AMPC

South Korea

Samsung SDI Co., Ltd. specializes in developing Lithium Ion Battery (LIB) technology.  The Company also manufactures cathode ray tubes (CRTs) for televisions and computer monitors.  Samsung SDI also produces liquid crystal display (LCD) components and rechargeable batteries for cellular phones , personal digital assistants (PDAs), Energy Storage Systems and solar panels.

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Samsung SDI (006400 KS)

Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Not a lot of shorts were covered on Monday. There could be more covering in the near term as the market drifts lower. KOSPI200 underperformed...

Brian Freitas

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

LGES (373220): Good Result, But...

Less attractive compared to Samsung SDI, LG ES is also more heavily reliant to US AMPC. However, the recent earnings rebound makes the case to...

Henry Soediarko

Samsung SDI (006400): Q3 Rather than Q2

Samsung SDI (006400 KS) is expected to turn profitable in Q3 this year, driven by increased utilization in EV battery plant and higher-margin...

Henry Soediarko

Samsung SDI (006400): Turnaround and AMPC

Samsung SDI's strong results signal a turnaround potential driven by shift to ESS, AI capex surge, awith potential USD 315 million from US...

Henry Soediarko

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Not a lot of shorts were covered on Monday. There could be more covering in the near term as the market drifts lower. KOSPI200 underperformed...

Brian Freitas

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

LGES (373220): Good Result, But...

Less attractive compared to Samsung SDI, LG ES is also more heavily reliant to US AMPC. However, the recent earnings rebound makes the case to...

Henry Soediarko

Samsung SDI (006400): Q3 Rather than Q2

​Samsung SDI (006400 KS) is expected to turn profitable in Q3 this year, driven by increased utilization in EV battery plant and higher-margin...

Henry Soediarko

Samsung SDI (006400): Turnaround and AMPC

​Samsung SDI's strong results signal a turnaround potential driven by shift to ESS, AI capex surge, awith potential USD 315 million from US...

Henry Soediarko

Samsung SDI (006400 KS) is expected to turn profitable in Q3 this year, driven by increased utilization in EV battery plant and higher-margin...

Samsung SDI's strong results signal a turnaround potential driven by shift to ESS, AI capex surge, awith potential USD 315 million from US...