Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Country Garden Holdings / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The government has taken several steps to improve supply-side restrictions on first and second homes.</li><li>PBOC has added policy support by cutting longer-dated LPR rates for home loan pricing. Longfor Group and Country Garden are highly rated, large China Real Estate developers.</li><li>They do not seem to respond positively to many tailwinds</li></ul>

The government has taken several steps to improve supply-side restrictions on first and second homes.PBOC has added policy support by cutting longer-dated LPR rates for home loan pricing. Longfor Group and Country Garden are highly rated, large China Real Estate developers.They do not seem to respond positively to many tailwinds

Hang Seng Index Constituents 2nd June 2022

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Exposure in the Casinos &amp; Gaming industry has fallen to new lows, with just 28% of active GEM managers now invested.</li>
<li>Declines in ownership have been spread over 7 years, but the last 6-months has seen the exodus gather pace, with 6.5% of EM investors closing out exposure over the period.</li>
<li>With changing attitudes to ESG and the perceived social negatives of gambling, active managers are getting more and more comfortable leaving gaming stocks out of their portfolios.</li>
</ul>


Exposure in the Casinos &amp; Gaming industry has fallen to new lows, with just 28% of active GEM managers now invested.
Declines in ownership have been spread over 7 years, but the last 6-months has seen the exodus gather pace, with 6.5% of EM investors closing out exposure over the period.
With changing attitudes to ESG and the perceived social negatives of gambling, active managers are getting more and more comfortable leaving gaming stocks out of their portfolios.


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>With US interest rate trending up, many of the Hong Kong blue chips are exposed to higher interest expenses from their outstanding debt. We look into who are less vulnerable.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar (968 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/power-assets-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:788:1" rel="noopener">Power Assets (6 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mtr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13289:1" rel="noopener">MTR Corp (66 HK)</a> are found to be more immunized.</li>
<li>Most have large cash balance, low leverage and more fixed rate debt. GEG, Bud APAC and Xinyi Solar may even benefit from higher interest income given net cash position.  </li>
</ul>


With US interest rate trending up, many of the Hong Kong blue chips are exposed to higher interest expenses from their outstanding debt. We look into who are less vulnerable.

Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK), Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK), Xinyi Solar (968 HK), Power Assets (6 HK) and MTR Corp (66 HK) are found to be more immunized.
Most have large cash balance, low leverage and more fixed rate debt. GEG, Bud APAC and Xinyi Solar may even benefit from higher interest income given net cash position.  


Rising US Interest Rate: A Look at Which HK Blue Chips Are Less Vulnerable

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Gaming Caught In The Crosshairs: Mainland China indicated that changes are afoot to gaming regulations, including the appointment of government officials to supervise the companies - just as Macau's lucrative gaming licenses come up for re-bidding in 2022; and*Financials Likely Next: There appears to be a genuine timeline for each sector in mainland China to be taken out to the woodshed. Now that the gaming industry is now being placed under firm control, it would appear to only be a matter of time when the financial sector will be re-configured to suit mainland China’s vision – likely ahead of the national elections in 2022.

*Gaming Caught In The Crosshairs: Mainland China indicated that changes are afoot to gaming regulations, including the appointment of government officials to supervise the companies - just as Macau's lucrative gaming licenses come up for re-bidding in 2022; and*Financials Likely Next: There appears to be a genuine timeline for each sector in mainland China to be taken out to the woodshed. Now that the gaming industry is now being placed under firm control, it would appear to only be a matter of time when the financial sector will be re-configured to suit mainland China’s vision – likely ahead of the national elections in 2022.

Mainland China – Here Comes The Rein Again

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our indicators have seen a surge in coverage of Macau in the context of the Digital RMB, starting with Macau Chief Executive Ho Lat Seng's mid-April plan to amend legislation in order to accommodate the e-RMB rollout; sentiment on the Macau gaming sector appears to be pulling back as a result</li>
<li>While the long-standing crackdown on VIP junkets has been a factor for Macau's casino operators throughout the previous cycle, rollout of the Digital RMB may also suppress growth in the important premium mass segment</li>
<li>Defensives vs. cyclicals relative sentiment recovered from a multi-year low of -3.5x STDEVs in mid-March to near-neutral readings last week, as the bond rally and flattening yield curve led a few high-profile strategists to call for more defensive positioning; but this phenomenon has now decisively peaked out without any significant thematic reversal, on refreshed expectations of rising yields and action in the commodity complex</li>
<li>European recovery indicators have made new post-pandemic highs, aided by improvement in sentiment on the pace of vaccinations, with implications for EUR/USD</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Our indicators have seen a surge in coverage of Macau in the context of the Digital RMB, starting with Macau Chief Executive Ho Lat Seng's mid-April plan to amend legislation in order to accommodate the e-RMB rollout; sentiment on the Macau gaming sector appears to be pulling back as a result
While the long-standing crackdown on VIP junkets has been a factor for Macau's casino operators throughout the previous cycle, rollout of the Digital RMB may also suppress growth in the important premium mass segment
Defensives vs. cyclicals relative sentiment recovered from a multi-year low of -3.5x STDEVs in mid-March to near-neutral readings last week, as the bond rally and flattening yield curve led a few high-profile strategists to call for more defensive positioning; but this phenomenon has now decisively peaked out without any significant thematic reversal, on refreshed expectations of rising yields and action in the commodity complex
European recovery indicators have made new post-pandemic highs, aided by improvement in sentiment on the pace of vaccinations, with implications for EUR/USD
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots:  Macau, Defensives Vs. Cyclicals, Europe's Recovery

Hong Kong

Sands China develops, owns, and operates multi-use integrated resorts and casinos in Macao. The company's portfolio includes The Venetian Macao, The Londoner Macao, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao, and Sands Macao, offering gaming, hotels, dining, retail, convention facilities, and entertainment. Sands China is headquartered in Macao and was founded in 2009.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sands China (1928 HK)

Hang Seng Index Constituents 2nd June 2022

The government has taken several steps to improve supply-side restrictions on first and second homes. PBOC has added policy support by cutting...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Casinos & Gaming: Bailing Out

With changing attitudes to ESG and the perceived social negatives of gambling, active managers are getting more and more comfortable leaving gaming...

Steven Holden

Rising US Interest Rate: A Look at Which HK Blue Chips Are Less Vulnerable

We look at what companies in the Hang Seng Index are more immunized to the rising US interest rate environment; and found the top five are with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Mainland China – Here Comes The Rein Again

FINANCIALS IN CROSSHAIRS: Mainland China is appointing government officials to supervise the gaming companies. There appears to be a genuine...

Thomas J. Monaco

TMI Snapshots: Macau, Defensives Vs. Cyclicals, Europe's Recovery

Our text analytics see negative sentiment on Macau's gaming operators due to e-RMB progress despite positive reopening data; a return to...

Elan Gore

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)