Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>More troubling signs for vaccines emerged last week, as next month’s annual VRBPAC meeting was canceled and RFK Jr. shrugged off latest measles outbreak.</li><li>The Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) selects the flu strains for the fall vaccines, six months in advance to allow for manufacturing.</li><li>One unvaccinated child died from the Texas measles outbreak and ~20 were others hospitalized, as RFK Jr. called the outbreak not unusual, even though measles was eradicated in the US in 2000. </li></ul>

More troubling signs for vaccines emerged last week, as next month’s annual VRBPAC meeting was canceled and RFK Jr. shrugged off latest measles outbreak.The Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) selects the flu strains for the fall vaccines, six months in advance to allow for manufacturing.One unvaccinated child died from the Texas measles outbreak and ~20 were others hospitalized, as RFK Jr. called the outbreak not unusual, even though measles was eradicated in the US in 2000. 

Adtalem Global Education  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.</li>
<li>We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity."</li>
<li>Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.</li>
</ul>


As discussed throughout January, we believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared.
We reiterated this in yesterday's pre-market ETF Pathfinder (Feb.3), also noting "we anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved quickly, and we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity."
Sure enough, both Mexico and, later, Canada, came to an agreement with Trump to delay tariffs for 30 days. Short-term support remains at the prior 1-month downtrend on the SPX.


S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> announced stellar performance in 2024, with revenue, operating profit, and net income exceeded revised forecasts, all reaching record highs.</li>
<li>Export of Hemlibra to Roche increased 45% YoY to ¥304B. Roche is seeing strong uptake of Hemlibra in Europe, where the drug reported double-digit growth.</li>
<li>Chugai guided for 2% revenue growth in 2025. Domestic sales are expected to remain flat, while overseas sales are expected to increase 4%. Bottomline to outpace revenue growth.</li>
</ul>



Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) announced stellar performance in 2024, with revenue, operating profit, and net income exceeded revised forecasts, all reaching record highs.
Export of Hemlibra to Roche increased 45% YoY to ¥304B. Roche is seeing strong uptake of Hemlibra in Europe, where the drug reported double-digit growth.
Chugai guided for 2% revenue growth in 2025. Domestic sales are expected to remain flat, while overseas sales are expected to increase 4%. Bottomline to outpace revenue growth.


Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Export Drives 2024 Result; Slower Growth Expected In 2025

<ul>
<li>Daiichi Sankyo received FDA approval for Datroway for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic hormone receptor (HR) positive, HER2 negative breast cancer who have received prior endocrine-based therapy and chemotherapy.</li>
<li>Sumitomo Pharma partnered with J&amp;J for co-promotion of the long-acting antipsychotic medication XEPLION. Shanghai Fosun Pharma’s proposed buyout of Shanghai Henlius Biotech for HK$5.4B (~$693M) failed to pass shareholders’ vote.</li>
<li>SK Bioscience signed a co-promotion and distribution agreement with Sanofi for RSV and hepatitis A vaccines. Hugel received approval for its botulinum toxin for five indications from the UAE.</li>
</ul>


Daiichi Sankyo received FDA approval for Datroway for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic hormone receptor (HR) positive, HER2 negative breast cancer who have received prior endocrine-based therapy and chemotherapy.
Sumitomo Pharma partnered with J&amp;J for co-promotion of the long-acting antipsychotic medication XEPLION. Shanghai Fosun Pharma’s proposed buyout of Shanghai Henlius Biotech for HK$5.4B (~$693M) failed to pass shareholders’ vote.
SK Bioscience signed a co-promotion and distribution agreement with Sanofi for RSV and hepatitis A vaccines. Hugel received approval for its botulinum toxin for five indications from the UAE.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 26)- Daiichi Sankyo, Sumitomo Pharma, Fosun Pharma, SK Bioscience, Hugel

United States

Sanofi is a global pharmaceutical company that researches, develops and manufactures prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines.  The Company develops cardiovascular, thrombosis, metabolic disorder, central nervous system, internal medicine and oncology drugs, and vaccines.

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Sanofi ADR (SNY US)

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Biopharma Week in Review - March 3, 2025

More troubling signs for vaccines emerged last week, as next month’s annual VRBPAC meeting was canceled and RFK Jr. shrugged off latest measles...

Water Tower Research

S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

S&P 500 $SPX Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again, as are most indexes $QQQ $ARKK $IJH $DJI $RSP; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Export Drives 2024 Result; Slower Growth Expected In 2025

Chugai reports record-breaking performance in 2024, driven by strong Hemlibra exports to Roche. Chugai guided for 2% revenue growth in 2025,...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 26)- Daiichi Sankyo, Sumitomo Pharma, Fosun Pharma, SK Bioscience, Hugel

APAC healthcare companies got approvals for new products as well as clinical trials. The companies continued with acquisitions and collaborations...

Tina Banerjee

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Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Biopharma Week in Review - March 3, 2025

More troubling signs for vaccines emerged last week, as next month’s annual VRBPAC meeting was canceled and RFK Jr. shrugged off latest measles...

Water Tower Research

S&P 500 Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Still Bullish

S&P 500 $SPX Holding Above Prior Breakout Level Yet Again, as are most indexes $QQQ $ARKK $IJH $DJI $RSP; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Export Drives 2024 Result; Slower Growth Expected In 2025

​Chugai reports record-breaking performance in 2024, driven by strong Hemlibra exports to Roche. Chugai guided for 2% revenue growth in 2025,...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 26)- Daiichi Sankyo, Sumitomo Pharma, Fosun Pharma, SK Bioscience, Hugel

APAC healthcare companies got approvals for new products as well as clinical trials. The companies continued with acquisitions and collaborations...

Tina Banerjee

Chugai reports record-breaking performance in 2024, driven by strong Hemlibra exports to Roche. Chugai guided for 2% revenue growth in 2025,...