Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With 1H23 revenue of KRW704 billion, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanmi-pharm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12476:1" rel="noopener">Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS)</a> is on track on surpass its 2022 revenue of KRW1.33 trillion to reach a new high in 2023.</li>
<li>Hanmi is developing epeglenatide as personalized obesity drug for South Korean market. With the spectacular success of obesity drugs in the U.S., epeglenatide seems to be have great market potential.</li>
<li>Outlicensing partner Merck is conducting phase 2b trial on efinopegdutide for NASH, with result expected in 2025. Efinopegdutide obtained fast track designation from FDA, which should accelerate its commercialization.</li>
</ul>


With 1H23 revenue of KRW704 billion, Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS) is on track on surpass its 2022 revenue of KRW1.33 trillion to reach a new high in 2023.
Hanmi is developing epeglenatide as personalized obesity drug for South Korean market. With the spectacular success of obesity drugs in the U.S., epeglenatide seems to be have great market potential.
Outlicensing partner Merck is conducting phase 2b trial on efinopegdutide for NASH, with result expected in 2025. Efinopegdutide obtained fast track designation from FDA, which should accelerate its commercialization.


Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Core Products Continue to Drive Sales; Pipeline Progress Raises Hope

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

<h2>Growth of low end driven by Pinduoduo</h2>
<p>The growth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> has spurred growth in China’s express market over the last two years, accounting for 60% or more of incremental growth in parcel volume in 2018. PDD’s emergence has boosted parcel volume growth, but this gift has come at a price: to win business from the merchants operating on PDD’s platform, express companies must offer rock-bottom pricing.</p>
<h2>Volume growth a nice gift, but it comes with a price</h2>
<p>PDD’s emergence offers strong volume growth, accompanied by downward pressure on pricing and margins. To combat these pressures, express companies must aggressively pursue parcel volume share in order to reduce unit costs (and thereby limit margin erosion). With most small express players squeezed out, we believe price competition among the remaining express firms is intensifying, with average parcel pricing down by 12-16% YoY in recent months.</p>
<h2>At high end of express &amp; logistics, less competition</h2>
<p>Away from intensifying competition at the low-end of the express sector, the high-end of China’s express segment features pockets of growth with muted competition. In time-definite (i.e., ‘overnight’) express, international express, supply chain management, and cold-chain logistics, providers tend to compete based on service levels, and their customers tend to be less price-sensitive than those at the low-end of the market. Underlying demand for these services is powered by a gradual ‘consumption upgrade’, helping merchants move high-value goods faster and more reliably compared to mainstream express products. We believe these segments offer shelter from the price competition that has emerged at the low-end of the express sector.</p>
<h2>Express market is bifurcating</h2>
<p>We see two distinct segments developing within express. At the low end, most of the listed express companies are aggressively pursuing volume share gains in order to reduce costs so they can profitably handle the low-priced parcels that are driving sector growth. Meanwhile, at the high end, SF Holding is successfully courting customers who value speed and reliability ahead of low prices. We expect profitability in this latter segment to remain fairly stable, while at the low end we expect profitability to continue eroding.</p>
<h2>Low-end pressure adds to rising capex demand, sliding returns</h2>
<p>The development of a bifurcated market comes at the same time most Chinese express companies are already facing pressures on cash flow and profitability. We believe most of the listed express companies are increasing capital expenditures in order to expand ‘last mile’ service and to build out needed infrastructure in smaller cities and rural areas. We suspect initial returns on these types of investments will be low, compounding downward pressure on margins related to PDD’s rise.</p>
<h2>Focus on high end should produce better results going forward</h2>
<p>Strong downward pressures on margins will make it increasingly difficult for most express companies to convert strong top-line growth into attractive earnings growth. In the medium-term, we believe companies with limited exposure to low-end parcel volumes are more likely to generate attractive strongest earnings growth. </p>

Growth of low end driven by Pinduoduo
The growth of Pinduoduo (PDD US) has spurred growth in China’s express market over the last two years, accounting for 60% or more of incremental growth in parcel volume in 2018. PDD’s emergence has boosted parcel volume growth, but this gift has come at a price: to win business from the merchants operating on PDD’s platform, express companies must offer rock-bottom pricing.
Volume growth a nice gift, but it comes with a price
PDD’s emergence offers strong volume growth, accompanied by downward pressure on pricing and margins. To combat these pressures, express companies must aggressively pursue parcel volume share in order to reduce unit costs (and thereby limit margin erosion). With most small express players squeezed out, we believe price competition among the remaining express firms is intensifying, with average parcel pricing down by 12-16% YoY in recent months.
At high end of express &amp; logistics, less competition
Away from intensifying competition at the low-end of the express sector, the high-end of China’s express segment features pockets of growth with muted competition. In time-definite (i.e., ‘overnight’) express, international express, supply chain management, and cold-chain logistics, providers tend to compete based on service levels, and their customers tend to be less price-sensitive than those at the low-end of the market. Underlying demand for these services is powered by a gradual ‘consumption upgrade’, helping merchants move high-value goods faster and more reliably compared to mainstream express products. We believe these segments offer shelter from the price competition that has emerged at the low-end of the express sector.
Express market is bifurcating
We see two distinct segments developing within express. At the low end, most of the listed express companies are aggressively pursuing volume share gains in order to reduce costs so they can profitably handle the low-priced parcels that are driving sector growth. Meanwhile, at the high end, SF Holding is successfully courting customers who value speed and reliability ahead of low prices. We expect profitability in this latter segment to remain fairly stable, while at the low end we expect profitability to continue eroding.
Low-end pressure adds to rising capex demand, sliding returns
The development of a bifurcated market comes at the same time most Chinese express companies are already facing pressures on cash flow and profitability. We believe most of the listed express companies are increasing capital expenditures in order to expand ‘last mile’ service and to build out needed infrastructure in smaller cities and rural areas. We suspect initial returns on these types of investments will be low, compounding downward pressure on margins related to PDD’s rise.
Focus on high end should produce better results going forward
Strong downward pressures on margins will make it increasingly difficult for most express companies to convert strong top-line growth into attractive earnings growth. In the medium-term, we believe companies with limited exposure to low-end parcel volumes are more likely to generate attractive strongest earnings growth. 

Bifurcated Chinese Express Market Developing

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> announced yesterday that the company has voluntarily withdrawn the US Biologic License Application for dengue vaccine candidate (QDENGA) citing issues over data collection.</li>
<li>As per Fierce Pharma, the decision to withdraw was due to additional data requested by the FDA which were not captured by Takeda’s Phase 3 TIDES trial.</li>
<li>Takeda’s share price dropped more than 2.0% during today’s trade, however, we would not be too concerned as efficacy and safety profiles of the trial has already been established.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced yesterday that the company has voluntarily withdrawn the US Biologic License Application for dengue vaccine candidate (QDENGA) citing issues over data collection.
As per Fierce Pharma, the decision to withdraw was due to additional data requested by the FDA which were not captured by Takeda’s Phase 3 TIDES trial.
Takeda’s share price dropped more than 2.0% during today’s trade, however, we would not be too concerned as efficacy and safety profiles of the trial has already been established.


Takeda: The Impact of Voluntary Withdrawal of Dengue Vaccine Application in the US Seems Minimal

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanofi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4564:1" rel="noopener">Sanofi (SAN FP)</a> earns more than 20% revenue from its key growth driver, Dupixent. With expanding indications, Dupixent is on track to record €10B revenue in 2023.</li>
<li>The company has added two new drugs in its portfolio this year. Since the beginning of 2023, Sanofi has reported five positive readouts for its pipeline.</li>
<li>Sanofi aims to reach €10B vaccine sales by 2030 from €7B in 2022, fueled by accelerated pace of innovation. The company plans to launch RSV vaccine for infants this winter.</li>
</ul>



Sanofi (SAN FP) earns more than 20% revenue from its key growth driver, Dupixent. With expanding indications, Dupixent is on track to record €10B revenue in 2023.
The company has added two new drugs in its portfolio this year. Since the beginning of 2023, Sanofi has reported five positive readouts for its pipeline.
Sanofi aims to reach €10B vaccine sales by 2030 from €7B in 2022, fueled by accelerated pace of innovation. The company plans to launch RSV vaccine for infants this winter.


Sanofi (SAN FP): It Is Not Just Only Dupixent; New Drugs and Vaccine Launches to Augment Growth

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-bioscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31484:1" rel="noopener">SK Bioscience (302440 KS)</a> recorded 5% YoY growth in core vaccine revenue to KRW17B in 1Q23, mainly driven by shingles vaccine, SKY Zoster due to its continued market leadership.</li>
<li>In May 2023, SK Bioscience received marketing authorization of its COVID-19 vaccine, SKYCovion from the UK MHRA. SKYCovion became the eighth COVID-19 vaccine approved in the UK.</li>
<li>SK Bioscience targets revenue of KRW220 billion by 2024 mainly through global expansion of existing in-house vaccines and expanding its contract manufacturing business.</li>
</ul>



SK Bioscience (302440 KS) recorded 5% YoY growth in core vaccine revenue to KRW17B in 1Q23, mainly driven by shingles vaccine, SKY Zoster due to its continued market leadership.
In May 2023, SK Bioscience received marketing authorization of its COVID-19 vaccine, SKYCovion from the UK MHRA. SKYCovion became the eighth COVID-19 vaccine approved in the UK.
SK Bioscience targets revenue of KRW220 billion by 2024 mainly through global expansion of existing in-house vaccines and expanding its contract manufacturing business.


SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Core Vaccines Gaining Traction; COVID Vaccine Gets International Approval

France

Sanofi operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures prescription pharmaceuticals and vaccines. Sanofi also develops cardiovascular, thrombosis, metabolic disorder, central nervous system, and oncology medicines and drugs. Sanofi serves customers worldwide.

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Sanofi (SAN FP)

Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Core Products Continue to Drive Sales; Pipeline Progress Raises Hope

Hanmi Pharm is projected to clock record high revenue in 2023. The company's obesity drug is in phase 3 trial. Two rare disease drug candidates...

Tina Banerjee

Bifurcated Chinese Express Market Developing

We will write more about SF Holding soon as the company prepares to seek a secondary listing in Hong Kong. But we believe some of the themes we...

Daniel Hellberg

Takeda: The Impact of Voluntary Withdrawal of Dengue Vaccine Application in the US Seems Minimal

Takeda has voluntarily withdrawn US BLA application for dengue vaccine citing issues over data collection. Efficacy and safety profiles of the...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Sanofi (SAN FP): It Is Not Just Only Dupixent; New Drugs and Vaccine Launches to Augment Growth

Dupixent is now the flagship drug of Sanofi, contributing ~23% of revenue. The company added two new drugs to its portfolio this year. Sanofi...

Tina Banerjee

SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Core Vaccines Gaining Traction; COVID Vaccine Gets International Approval

SK Bioscience recorded 5% YoY growth in core vaccine revenue in 1Q23, driven by shingles vaccine, SKY Zoster. Last month, the company received...

Tina Banerjee

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Hanmi Pharm (128940 KS): Core Products Continue to Drive Sales; Pipeline Progress Raises Hope

​Hanmi Pharm is projected to clock record high revenue in 2023. The company's obesity drug is in phase 3 trial. Two rare disease drug candidates...

Tina Banerjee

Bifurcated Chinese Express Market Developing

We will write more about SF Holding soon as the company prepares to seek a secondary listing in Hong Kong. But we believe some of the themes we...

Daniel Hellberg

Takeda: The Impact of Voluntary Withdrawal of Dengue Vaccine Application in the US Seems Minimal

Takeda has voluntarily withdrawn US BLA application for dengue vaccine citing issues over data collection. Efficacy and safety profiles of the...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Sanofi (SAN FP): It Is Not Just Only Dupixent; New Drugs and Vaccine Launches to Augment Growth

Dupixent is now the flagship drug of Sanofi, contributing ~23% of revenue. The company added two new drugs to its portfolio this year. Sanofi...

Tina Banerjee

SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Core Vaccines Gaining Traction; COVID Vaccine Gets International Approval

SK Bioscience recorded 5% YoY growth in core vaccine revenue in 1Q23, driven by shingles vaccine, SKY Zoster. Last month, the company received...

Tina Banerjee

Hanmi Pharm is projected to clock record high revenue in 2023. The company's obesity drug is in phase 3 trial. Two rare disease drug candidates...